The 2021 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot will mark the first time in nearly a decade that no first-time eligible candidates are expected to draw close to the necessary 75% of the vote required for election. Nevertheless, the upcoming ballot features a few newly-eligible candidates with intriguing Hall of Fame cases who could build towards eventual election.
Arguably, the first-time candidate with the strongest Hall of Fame case is right-handed pitcher Tim Hudson. During a solid career which spanned from 1999 to 2015, Hudson pitched for three teams: the Oakland Athletics, Atlanta Braves, and San Francisco Giants. Hudson was noted for his mastery of the sinkerball which he used to frustrate opposing hitters by generating weak contact and inducing ground balls. Hudson retired with a career win-loss record of 222-133 and a 3.49 ERA. When Hudson’s career ERA is ballpark and league adjusted, his 3.49 mark translates into a more illustrious 120 ERA+. In addition, Hudson accumulated 57.9 career WAR during his career. Yet, Hudson’s most impressive career statistic is his excellent .625 win-loss percentage, which is the equivalent of a team posting a 101-61 record over the course of a full season. Historically, a pitcher with the combination of Hudson’s 222 victories and .625 win-loss percentage has been voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA or through one of the incarnations of the Era Committee. However, wins have become devalued by some in the baseball community and as a result Hudson may not receive the support he would have from previous generations of voters. With this in mind, I decided to take a deeper look into the validity of Hudson’s win-loss percentage by comparing the righty to seven prominent pitchers in a variety of categories that affect wins and losses. Rather than just rely on the popular traditional and sabermetric methods, I chose to take a different approach by using some alternative advanced metrics and statistics to analyze the pitchers.
The seven hurlers I am comparing Hudson to include:
•the three starting pitchers most recently voted into the Hall of Fame: Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, and Jack Morris;
•the highest returning holdover candidate on the BBWAA ballot: Curt Schilling;
•two of Hudson’s contemporaries whom are also candidates on the upcoming ballot: Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle;
•as well as another contemporary who is not yet eligible but has a strong chance at being elected to Cooperstown: CC Sabathia.
The Rare Combination of Hudson’s 222 Wins and .625 Win-Loss Percentage
Before
delving into the comparisons, I wanted to see how rare it is for a
pitcher to retire with Hudson’s impressive combination of career
victories and win-loss percentage. In fact,
only 16 pitchers have completed their careers with more victories than
Hudson’s 222 while also posting a higher win-loss percentage than the
righty’s .625 mark. To date, 14 of those 16 pitchers are in the Hall of Fame while the two hurlers who have yet to be elected,
Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, are still on the BBWAA ballot. Of
course, Clemens’ and Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacies have each been
adversely affected by their ties to PEDs. Had it not been for the PED allegations, Clemens would have been an
easy first ballot or even unanimous Hall of Fame selection while
Pettitte would have certainly drawn a much higher vote total than the
respective 9.9% and 11.3% he collected in his first two years on the
ballot.
However, Hudson’s 222 victories and .625 win-loss percentage represent the minimum of the standard. Nevertheless,
if the standard is changed to pitchers with 200 victories and a .600
win-loss percentage, Hudson still belongs to a very exclusive club as he
is one of just 37 hurlers to retire with this impressive statistical
combination. Moreover, 28 of those 37 pitchers are in the Hall of Fame. Aside from Hudson, the remaining hurlers sitting outside of Cooperstown who
retired with the 200 victory/.600 win-loss percentage combination
includes the aforementioned Clemens and Pettitte and also adds the
yet-to-be eligible Sabathia along with David Wells, early 20th century
right-hander Carl Mays, and a trio of 19th century pitchers—Charlie
Buffinton, Bob Caruthers, and Jack Stivetts. Other than Sabathia, Hudson’s career is a healthy step above these additional hurlers as
Mays and Stivetts only just clear the 200-victory threshold while
Wells, Buffinton, and Stivetts barely meet the .600 win-loss percentage
standard. Mays has appeared on the Veterans Committee ballot in the past but has never come close to election. His Hall of Fame case has been overshadowed
by throwing the errant pitch that killed Ray Chapman and suspicion that he
purposely lost World Series games during the 1921 and 1922 Fall
Classics. The
trio of 19th century hurlers have never been serious Hall of Fame
candidates as each had careers that were barely a decade long, played
during an era when two or three-man pitching rotations were the norm
and the disparity between the best and worst teams was more pronounced. Wells
is the only pitcher of recent times to retire with the 200 victory/.600
win-loss percentage combination and fall off the BBWAA ballot. However, Wells’ Hall of Fame case was likely doomed by his 4.13 career ERA which would be, by far, the highest in Cooperstown.
Career Totals as a Starting Pitcher
Since
the majority of the stats I am using reflect the hurlers’ performances
in games in which they were the starting pitcher, their career record,
win-loss percentage, and ERA shown below slightly differ from their overall career totals.
The
pitchers I consider most fitting to compare Hudson with are Buehrle,
Halladay, Pettitte, and Sabathia because their career timelines most
overlap with Hudson’s. Keep in mind, Hudson is being judged against
hurlers who have promising Hall of Fame cases or are already enshrined
in Cooperstown. It is certainly possible that each of these pitchers
will one day find their way into the Hall of Fame either through the
BBWAA vote or on a later Era Committee ballot. Thus, being at or near
the mean of these pitchers in these categories is impressive.
Percentage of Games Started Won and Lost
During his career, Hudson regularly won while rarely losing. In fact, Hudson finished with a sub-.500
win-loss percentage in just two of his 17 major league seasons. Moreover, Hudson had just four double-digit loss campaigns, including
two where he lost exactly ten games. By contrast, Hudson had 13 seasons with double-digits in wins. Hudson’s career-high total of defeats was just 13—a total he met or exceeded in victories ten times during his career.
The
tables above show Hudson is slightly below the mean among the eight
hurlers in percentage of games started where he was credited as the
winning pitcher. However, Hudson really shines in the low percentage of
games started where he was tagged as the losing pitcher. Hudson took
the loss in just 27.77%
of his starts, trailing only Halladay who easily leads the octet of
hurlers in both categories—underscoring why “Doc” is the only
first-ballot Hall of Famer of the group. These
two categories also illustrate how Hudson won with more regularity than
contemporaries Buehrle and Sabathia and lost with less frequency than
Pettitte, Buehrle, and Sabathia.
Quality Start Percentage and Average Game Score (Version 2.0)
Quality start and game score are two useful metrics to evaluate a starting pitcher’s performance.
A pitcher is given credit for a quality start when they pitch six or more innings while giving up three or fewer earned runs. When
a starting pitcher is removed from the game, you’ll often hear a
commentator remark, “he gave his team a chance to win” or “he kept his
team in the game.” If a hurler has a quality start, they’ve essential pitched well enough
to earn the win or have, at the very least, kept the game close by
limiting the opposing team’s scoring.
Game
score is a metric which gauges a starting pitcher’s performance by
converting it into a number figure based on the quantity and quality of
the outing. Game score was originally devised by Bill James, however, I
prefer Tom Tango’s refined version of the metric because it uses a
slightly different formula which penalizes pitchers for giving up home
runs, something James’ version does not do.
At
63.05%, Hudson is comfortably above the mean in percentage of quality
starts and a good distance ahead of Pettitte, Sabathia, and Morris. For
average game score, Hudson’s 56.25% is an eyelash below the 56.34%
mean. The three pitchers Hudson trails in average game score are a pair
of Hall of Fame hurlers, Halladay and Mussina, along with Schilling—who
if it hadn't been for a crowded ballot and his off-the-field
controversies, would have been voted into Cooperstown several years ago.
Cheap Wins and Tough Losses
A cheap win is when a starting pitcher earns the victory in a non-quality start by pitching fewer than 6 innings or allowing more than 3 earned runs.
With
just 28 of his 222 career triumphs being classified as cheap wins,
Hudson rarely was the recipient of a gifted victory despite making a
non-quality start. Hudson’s 12.61% mark ranks a strong third among the eight hurlers and is easily better the 15.70% mean.
Essentially
the opposite of a cheap win, the pitcher is credited with a tough loss
when they are the losing pitcher of record in a quality start.
This
is the first category in which Hudson looks poor in comparison to the
featured hurlers. With 35 of his 133 career defeats coming in quality
starts, Hudson is about 5 tough losses below the mean. Nevertheless,
Hudson’s solid average game score mark somewhat nullifies his lower
number of tough losses. Interestingly,
Hudson’s highest percentage of tough losses came in 2014 when the
righty posted a career-worst 9-13 record for the San Francisco Giants
despite making quality starts in seven of those defeats. Hudson’s
losing record was largely the byproduct of being a victim of
particularly poor run support as San Francisco’s offense scored zero or
one run in each of the seven games in which the sinkerball-specialist
made a quality start but was tagged with the loss. Yet, it all worked
out for Hudson and the Giants as the season ended with the veteran
lifting the World Championship trophy over his head after the club beat
the Kansas City Royals to win the 2014 Fall Classic.
Wins Lost and Losses Saved
The
wins lost table shows how often the eight pitchers were in the position
to be credited for the victory at the time they faced their final
batter, only to be denied the win due to their bullpen blowing the lead.
Hudson has the dubious honor of leading the octet of hurlers in wins lost. Over the course of his career, Hudson lost a staggering 50 potential wins due to his bullpen blowing leads. In fact, the lead
Hudson holds over the other pitchers is so significant that the difference
between the sinkerballer’s 10.44% wins lost mark and the 8.46% of the
second-highest placing hurler, Roy Halladay, is greater than the gap
from Halladay to the 6.61% total of the next-to-last ranked CC Sabathia.
Hudson
spent the early part of his career with the Oakland Athletics. Along
with Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, Hudson was part of an impressive trio
of young starters known as the Big Three. Before being split up by
Hudson’s and Mulder’s respective trades to the Atlanta Braves and St.
Louis Cardinals following the 2004 season, the Big Three helped lead the
A’s to three AL West Division Titles and one AL Wildcard. Unfortunately for Hudson, Oakland’s bullpen had a bad habit of costing
him wins. Hudson was particularly victimized between 2002 and 2004 when
the A’s relief corps cost the sinkerballer 18 potential wins. Taking
a deeper look into the game logs, only one of those 18 probable
victories were lost as a result of Hudson leaving a runner on base. What’s
more, Hudson’s leads were often blown by the A’s closers during those
years as Billy Koch squandered 3 of the 8 potential victories the
bullpen cost Hudson in 2002 while Keith Foulke accounted for all 4 of
Hudson’s probable wins that were lost in 2003. However, because
Oakland’s potent offense was able to retake the lead when they were the
pitcher of record, Koch was credited with the win for all three of the potential victories he cost Hudson while Foulke
picked up the “W” for two of the four probable victories he cost
Hudson. Despite blowing Hudson’s potential wins, Koch and Foulke were
each named the respective AL Rolaid Relievers of the Year in 2002 and
2003. While Oakland’s bullpen struggled to hold Hudson’s leads, it was
certainly not due to the righty coming out of games too quickly as he
regularly pitched deep into ballgames, averaging 7 innings per start
between 2002 and 2004. Moreover, Hudson ranked third among AL hurlers for innings pitched in both 2002 and 2003.
The
antithesis of wins lost, losses saved accounts for the number of times
the eight hurlers were in position for the loss but their team came back
to tie the game or take the lead, thus saving them from being the
losing pitcher of record.
Hudson
ranks fifth with an 8.56% losses saved mark that is a tick better than
the mean. Hudson is a good distance in front of sixth place Schilling
and is well ahead of his contemporaries, Buehrle and Sabathia, who bring
up the rear. Among
the eight pitchers, Hudson along with Hall of Famers Halladay and
Mussina are the only ones with more wins lost than losses saved.
“Adjusted” Win-Loss Percentage
Cheap
wins and tough losses essentially have their respective opposites in
wins lost and losses saved. As the previous tables illustrate, some
hurlers excel amongst their fellow pitchers in one category while
struggling by comparison in another. However, by deducting cheap wins
and tough losses from the pitcher’s career totals while adding wins lost
and losses saved to their ledger, an “adjusted” career win-loss
percentage is created which gives an idea of the eight hurlers’ overall
performance in those four categories. The table below shows each
pitcher’s “adjusted” starting pitcher career win-loss record and the
increase or decrease from their “adjusted” to their actual starting
pitcher win-loss percentage.
Hudson
once again finds himself among Hall of Famers as his .0117 increase
from his actual to “adjusted” win-loss percentage ranks second, in
between Halladay and Mussina. Hudson and Halladay are the only two
hurlers who have more tough losses than cheap wins as well as a greater
number of wins lost than losses saved. Hudson’s
contemporaries, Pettitte and Sabathia, stand out in a different way as
they are the only two pitchers to see a decrease from their actual to
“adjusted” win-loss percentage. In fact,
Pettitte’s and Sabathia’s decreases are so significant that they bring
the mean all the way down to .0040 with each of the other six hurlers
comfortably above it.
Run Support
Aside
from National League pitchers occasionally helping their own cause, the
level of run support a hurler receives from their offense is out of
their control. Nevertheless,
run support can have a major effect on a pitcher’s win-loss record. Run support is judged in two different ways: run support per game which
measures runs scored for the entire game per 27 outs and run support
per innings which accounts for runs scored per 27 outs while the
starting pitcher was in the game. Below are each of the hurler’s career
run support per game and per innings versus the MLB average which is in
parentheses. These tables are followed by the combined differences between each pitcher’s run support per game and per inning versus the MLB average during their career.
Hudson
ranks second behind Schilling on all three tables. However,
calculating a true ranking based on run support is difficult since a
pitcher’s run support is affected by a variety of factors that are
unique to each hurler including the pitcher’s home ballpark, the
division their team played in, and the era during which their career
took place. For example, the hurler with, by far, the lowest run
support is Schilling who spent eight-and-a-half years of his career
playing for the offensively-challenged Philadelphia Phillies who
finished at or near the bottom of the NL in runs scored during the bulk
of his time with the club. Conversely, the pitchers with highest run
support are Pettitte and Mussina who respectively spent the majority and
entirety of their career’s playing in the high-offense AL East during
what is often referred to as the Steroid Era. Nevertheless,
aside from Schilling, it does not appear Hudson benefited from higher
run support in comparison to the featured hurlers.
Individual Starting Pitcher Win-Loss Percentage vs. Team Win-Loss Percentage
During
his career, Hudson generally pitched for competitive teams. In fact,
just two seasons of Hudson’s 17-year career were spent with a team that
finished the campaign with a sub-.500 record. Thus, a Hall of Fame
voter might
assume the hurler’s excellent .625 win-loss percentage is a byproduct of
playing the majority of his career with competitive teams. Nevertheless,
it is also true that the best pitchers will generally play the bulk of
their careers with winning teams, in part, because their services will
be sought by the most competitive franchises. Indeed, the Braves made a
deal with the A’s to acquire Hudson as the right-hander was approaching
free agency and quickly signed him to a lucrative contract extension to
keep him from testing the open market. And, towards the end of Hudson’s career, the Giants signed the hurler
to add veteran depth to their rotation as the club embarked on its third
Championship run in five seasons. While Hudson’s services were in
demand by contending teams, it is undoubtedly true his win-loss record
was enhanced by playing for competitive franchises. However, most of
the featured hurlers followed the same pattern of spending a significant
portion of their careers with winning ballclubs. The table below illustrates which pitchers benefited most from playing for competitive franchises by showing
the difference between each’s individual win-loss percentage as a
starting pitcher versus the accumulated win-loss percentage for the
teams they played for during their career.
The teams Hudson played for during his career put together an overall win-loss percentage of .553 which is roughly the equivalent
of a club posting a 90-72 regular season record while the righty’s .625
individual career win-loss percentage translates to a 101-61 record
over the course of a full season. The .072 difference between Hudson’s
individual win-loss percentage versus the .553 mark of the teams he
played for ranks the sinkerball-specialist fourth among the eight
hurlers, just shy of the .077 mean. Hudson’s win-loss percentage was
aided by playing for competitive franchises but it is also evident that
he outperformed his teams in comparison to his contemporaries Sabathia, Buehrle, and Pettitte as his .072 mark is comfortably ahead of each of these hurlers.
Average Finish in the Ranked Categories
To
give an overall picture of how Hudson stacks up among the eight
pitchers here is the average finish of the featured hurlers based on
their classification in the ranked categories. I chose
to omit the three run support tables from the rankings because there
are too many variables and not a clear enough picture to give an
accurate ranking. I
also excluded “adjusted” win-loss percentage from the rankings since it
is a composite of cheap wins, tough losses, wins lost, and losses
saved.
Hudson’s
3.89 average finish ranks the sinkerballer fourth among the eight
pitchers. Hudson’s combined rankings from the nine categories add up
to 35 points, putting him just three points behind overly-qualified Hall
of Fame candidate Schilling and two points away from 2019 Cooperstown
inductee Mussina. Hudson is above the mean in five of the nine ranked
categories. What’s more, the
righty sits well above the mean in four of those categories: lowest
percentage of games started lost, average quality start percentage,
lowest percentage of cheap wins, and highest percentage of wins lost. By contrast, Hudson is well below the mean in only one metric: highest
percentage of tough losses.
As
for the seven other featured hurlers, not surprisingly Halladay leads
his fellow pitchers by a sizable gap. In fact, Halladay ranks first or
second in seven of the nine categories and his 17 points from the
combined rankings translates to an average finish of 1.89. With such a
wide margin separating Halladay from the three-way battle for second
place between Schilling, Mussina, and Hudson, it is clear that among the
nine ranked categories the first-ballot
Hall of Famer is truly in a class by himself. A ways back from the
Schilling-Mussina-Hudson triumvirate, Buehrle and Pettitte are tied for
fifth place with their equivalent 48
points giving them each a 5.33 average finish. Further back is Morris
with 55 points and a 6.11 average finish while Sabathia is dead last with 56 points and a 6.22 average.
Morris’
seventh place rank is not surprising since his 3.90 ERA is the highest
among Hall of Fame pitchers. Nevertheless, Morris’ Hall of Fame case
was greatly strengthened by his stellar World Series performances during
the 1984 and 1991 Fall Classics, each of which played a role in his
election to Cooperstown. However, Sabathia’s last place finish is somewhat unexpected. During the final season of his career, Sabathia
joined the prestigious 3,000-strikeout club while also reaching the
secondary milestone of 250 wins. Reaching these dual milestones will
undoubtedly help Sabathia draw support when he becomes eligible to
appear on the BBWAA ballot in four years. That being said, Sabathia’s
low ranking is due, in part, to his pitching several seasons past his
prime. With 3577.1 innings pitched, Sabathia ranks second among the
eight hurlers, behind only Morris’ 3824 frames. This longevity enabled
Sabathia to reach the 250-win/3000-strikeout milestones but the quantity
he added also came at the expense of quality as, over the final seven
seasons of his career, the hurler often struggled to pitch at a league
average level, going 60-59 with a 4.33 ERA while posting a pedestrian
ERA+ of 97. Moreover, during Sabathia’s final seven campaigns, the
veteran was the beneficiary of 16 cheap wins and saved from a staggering
31 potential losses compared to being the victim of 14 tough losses
with just 5 potential wins lost.
While Hudson’s 3.89 average finish and fourth place ranking puts him in the neighborhood of Schilling and Mussina, many
of the popular sabermetric stats such as WAR and JAWS judge the
sinkerball-specialist’s career value as being closer to his
contemporaries, Buehrle, Pettitte, and Sabathia. Nevertheless,
with Hudson’s strong overall showing in the nine categories, the righty
sets himself apart from Buehrle and Pettitte, whom he is slated to
share the upcoming ballot with. Hudson also distinguishes himself from
Sabathia, who will be eligible for the 2025 vote. In addition,
Hudson’s solid ranking and the edge he holds over three of his
contemporaries underscores the validity of his 222 victories and .625
win-loss percentage. Wins may be devalued by some in the baseball
community, however, the rarely seen combination of Hudson’s victory
total and win-loss percentage are key elements of a Hall of
Fame-caliber career that should one day earn the hurler a bronze plaque
in Cooperstown.
----by John Tuberty
Follow me on Twitter @BloggerTubbs
Sources:
Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Stathead, Fangraphs, MLB,
Cooperstown Cred Andy Pettitte article, Cooperstown Cred CC Sabathia
article
Cards: Tim Hudson 2002 SP Authentic,
Mark Buehrle 2002 Upper Deck Ballpark Idols, CC Sabathia 2010 Topps, Roy
Halladay 2006 Fleer Ultra, Mike Mussina 1996 Topps, Andy Pettitte 1996
Fleer, Curt Schilling 2000 Upper Deck Pros & Prospects, Jack Morris
1984 Fleer, Tim Hudson 2007 Upper Deck, Tim Hudson 2014 Bowman Chrome,
Tim Hudson 2002 Topps Reserve, Tim Hudson 2006 Upper Deck Sweet Spot
Update, Curt Schilling 2004 Fleer Ultra, Mike Mussina 2003 Upper Deck
First Pitch
Other Articles by Tubbs Baseball Blog:
Stat links to players
mentioned: Tim Hudson, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, Jack Morris, Curt Schilling, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, CC Sabathia, Roger Clemens,
David Wells, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Billy Koch, Keith Foulke, Carl Mays, Charlie Buffinton, Bob Caruthers, Jack Stivetts, Ray Chapman
