Perhaps no slugger fits the definition of “three-true-outcomes hitter” more accurately than Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber, as a large percentage of his plate appearances result in either a home run, walk, or strikeout. During the 2022 season, Schwarber led the NL with 46 home runs and 200 strikeouts while drawing 86 walks and batting a paltry .218. For 2023, Schwarber’s propensity to have his plate appearances end in one of the “three-true-outcomes” reached new heights as he finished the campaign with 47 home runs, 126 walks, and 215 strikeouts—once again pacing the senior circuit in the latter category. Schwarber’s rise in walks and strikeouts was accompanied by a drop in batting average which saw him fall below the dreaded Mendoza Line to .197. However, he did not allow his low batting average to keep him from being one of the game’s most productive hitters as he reached triple digits in both RBI and runs scored—a feat accomplished by only seven other players in 2023. By reaching those plateaus, Schwarber earned the unique distinction of becoming the first player to drive in or score 100 runs while hitting below .200. Additionally, Schwarber established new benchmarks for sub-.200 hitters in nearly every traditional statistical category including hits, home runs, and OPS.
Since signing with the Phillies
as a free agent in 2022, Schwarber has seen the majority of his plate
appearances come from the leadoff spot in the batting order. As a
thickly-built, slow-footed, power-hitter who regularly strikes out,
Schwarber seemed to be an odd choice for leadoff. Yet, in both 2022 and
2023, he ignited the offense and helped the club capture NL wild cards
in back-to-back seasons. After making 123 starts as Philadelphia’s
leadoff hitter in 2022, Schwarber opened 2023 by splitting time between
batting out of the two and three-holes. The 30-year-old slugger
returned to the leadoff spot for a few games in early May before being
shifted to fifth in the order where he slumped heavily. With
Schwarber sporting an anemic .160 average, the Phillies decided to send
him back to leadoff at the beginning of June. The move quickly paid
dividends as he rediscovered his tempo and hit a more palatable .215
from that point forward with each of his remaining 104 starts coming out
of the leadoff spot. Following the move back to leadoff, Schwarber
belted 34 home runs while amassing 80 runs scored and 77 RBI. He was
particularly home run-happy during the latter stages of the campaign as
he launched 10 long balls over the fence in both August and September. Philadelphia’s season closely matched Schwarber’s as the team overcame a
bleak month of May to reassert themselves as a contender and secure the
top NL wild card seed. Though he finished with a sub-.200 average, his
47 round-trippers slotted runner-up to the 54 of Atlanta Braves first
baseman Matt Olson, while his 126 walks only trailed San Diego Padres
left fielder Juan Soto’s 132. Additionally, Schwarber ranked a
respective seventh and ninth among senior circuit batters with 108 runs
scored and 104 RBI.
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Schwarber played in 160 games during 2023 with 108 of his starts coming out of the leadoff spot. By batting at the top of the order and accruing so much playing time, Schwarber stepped to the plate an inordinately-high number of times for a low-average hitter. While his .197 batting mark classified 53 points under the NL average, because he racked up so many walks, his .343 OBP checked in 20 points above the NL average. Thus, the combination of Schwarber’s ability to get on base in front of a potent Phillies offense coupled with his capacity to drive himself in via the long ball, set the stage for him to become the first sub-.200 hitter to reach triple digits in runs scored. Prior to Schwarber, the lowest batting figure registered during a 100-run campaign came in 1891 when shortstop Shorty Fuller hit .212 for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. An almost polar opposite to the “three-true-outcomes” batting style of Schwarber, the light-hitting Fuller played during the high-scoring late 19th century when teams plated an average of five or even six-plus runs per game despite home runs being a rare occurrence. Slotted behind Fuller is another 19th century player, right fielder Hugh Nicol who not only reached triple digits in runs scored but also set the pre-Modern Era stolen base record despite logging a meager .215 average for the 1887 Cincinnati Reds. During the era in which Nicol played, the definition of what constituted a stolen base was more liberal than what it is today. Nevertheless, only Rickey Henderson has approached Nicol’s 138 swiped bags. The remainder of the bottom-five is rounded out first by Schwarber’s 2022 campaign in which he batted .218, followed by an additional light-hitting 19th century player in Emmett Seery who furnished a .224 mark for the 1887 Indianapolis Hoosiers. Similar to his 2023 stat line, Schwarber’s 2022 effort saw him produce slightly higher OPS+ and Rbat figures. Although it may be considered a dubious honor to post the lowest and fourth-lowest batting averages for a 100-run season, Schwarber’s offensive output in both 2022 and 2023 was far superior to the respective performances of Fuller, Nichol, and Seery who each put together sub-100 OPS+ marks and compiled negative Rbat during their low-average/100-run campaigns.
Standing just outside the bottom-five are two more 19th century hitters, Tom Brown and William Robinson, followed by the first 20th century player to appear, Detroit Tigers shortstop Donie Bush. While Robinson’s and Bush’s respective 1888 and 1912 campaigns much more closely resemble Fuller’s 1891 season than Schwarber’s 2022 or 2023 showings, the pair racked up walks at an equivalent rate to the Phillies left fielder. Checking in behind Bush with a .232 average is the first player who possessed a comparable skill set to Schwarber, New York Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson. Finishing the 2012 season with 43 home runs, 75 walks, and 195 strikeouts, Granderson embodied the “three-true-outcomes” batting style that has come to define sluggers like Schwarber. What’s more, prior to Schwarber, Granderson’s .232 average from 2012 represented the lowest batting mark for a player to reach triple digits in both RBI and runs scored. Yet, Granderson still fell shy of the OPS+ or Rbat numbers that Schwarber produced in 2022 or 2023. In fact, Schwarber’s 122 and 131 OPS+ figures stand tall among more than two dozen of the lowest-average 100-run campaigns as you have to go all the way back to 28th-ranked Jay Buhner who notched a 132 mark while batting .243 for the 1997 Seattle Mariners before finding a hitter with a higher OPS+ than Schwarber’s. Also, after Schwarber and Granderson, Buhner’s .243 average ranks next-lowest among batters who put together the 100 run/100 RBI combo.
By
becoming the first player to reach triple digits in RBI with a sub-.200
batting average, Schwarber simultaneously earned the dubious distinction
of posting the lowest average for a 100-RBI campaign. While spending
the majority of the season batting out of the leadoff spot undoubtedly
helped the 30-year-old slugger reach the century mark in runs scored,
hitting at the top of order also decreased his chances of attaining 100
RBI as he was guaranteed to have at least one plate appearance with no
runners on base. In fact, over the course of the 2023 campaign,
Schwarber stepped into the batter’s box with 396 runners on base—40
fewer opportunities than the number an average MLB hitter with his 720
plate appearances would see. Nevertheless, he did not allow the lower
number of opportunities to keep him from consistently driving in runs as
he finished the season with 104 RBI, 77 of which came while batting out
of the leadoff spot. Schwarber utilized his power to rack up RBI as he
drove in 76 runs with his 47 round-trippers.
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While the players who registered the lowest batting averages during 100-run campaigns were mostly light-hitting 19th century players of the distant past, the bulk of the players with the lowest batting marks in 100-RBI seasons have come in recent times. As hitters began placing a greater emphasis on power and a reduced focus on batting average, the once rare combination of a player driving in 100 runs while logging a woefully-poor batting mark has become much more common. Indeed, seven of the 10 worst batting averages maintained during 100-RBI campaigns have occurred within the past 15 years. Three of those took place in 2023 as, in addition to Schwarber, Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy and New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso reached triple digits in RBI while posting respective batting figures of .212 and .217 that were only slightly less anemic than the Phillies slugger’s .197 mark. With his paltry batting average, Schwarber established a new level of futility for a 100-RBI season, shattering the previous low of .212 that had been set two years before by Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager. What’s more, because Muncy’s .212 average worked out to a .2116 mark that was a fraction lower than Seager’s .2123 figure, the Dodgers slugger slotted directly behind Schwarber while Alonso’s .217 average classified fourth-lowest. Another unique aspect of Muncy’s 2023 campaign was that he accrued more RBI than hits during the season. Prior to Muncy, only Mark McGwire reached the 100-RBI plateau with a greater number of RBI than hits. McGwire achieved this odd statistical combination while playing for the 1999 St. Louis Cardinals.
Although Schwarber earned the dubious distinction of producing the lowest batting mark in a 100-RBI campaign, by consistently hitting home runs and drawing walks, he was more than able to offset his meager .197 average and finish 2023 with a solid 122 OPS+. Schwarber’s 122 figure put him alongside Alonso whom the Phillies slugger owned a small edge over in Rbat but slightly trailed in traditional OPS. Among the 10 players who registered the lowest batting averages in 100-RBI campaigns, only Carlos Peña of the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays notched an OPS+ or Rbat number higher than Schwarber’s and Alonso’s 2023 totals. What’s more, the 11th through 30th-lowest batting marks featured just three players who bested Schwarber’s and Alonso’s OPS+ and Rbat figures. By contrast, when Seager set the record-low batting mark in 2021, he did so while only logging a league-average 100 OPS+ and accruing -2 Rbat, well below Schwarber’s numbers in both categories. Prior to Seager, the dubious honor of owning the lowest batting mark was held for nearly four decades by Tony Armas who collected 107 RBI while batting .218 for the 1983 Boston Red Sox. Though Seager and Armas were power-hitters who racked up high strikeout totals like Schwarber, they lacked the patience at the plate which enabled the Phillies slugger to maintain above-average OBP and OPS+ figures. Interestingly, before Armas, the previous holder of the lowest batting mark for a 100-RBI campaign was Roy Sievers who hit .232 for the 1954 Washington Senators. A free-swinger during an era in which strikeouts were much less common, Sievers’ 77 strikeouts actually ranked third-highest in the AL in 1954.
In addition to becoming the first player to drive in or score 100 runs while batting below the Mendoza Line, Schwarber also established new benchmarks for sub-.200 hitters in a slew of other categories, some of which had been recently set, as well as a few that had stood for several decades.
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With his 108 runs scored, Schwarber surpassed Joey Gallo’s total of 90 from 2021. A near carbon-copy of Schwarber in his batting approach, Gallo equally personifies the definition of a “three-true-outcomes hitter.” The owner of a .208 career-average going into 2021, Gallo began the season with the Texas Rangers and was in the process of putting together a solid campaign when he was sent to the New York Yankees in a late-July trade deadline deal. While Schwarber did his best hitting during the final months of the 2023 season, the opposite proved to be the case for Gallo as he batted a woeful .160 after the trade to finish the year just below the Mendoza Line at .199. Nevertheless, in addition to runs scored, Gallo set new benchmarks for sub-.200 hitters in home runs, walks, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and Rbat. During 2023, Schwarber surpassed Gallo in each of those categories, save for OBP as his .343 mark checked up shy of Gallo’s .351 figure. Schwarber also wiped his free-swinging peer’s name off the top of a dubious category as his 215 strikeouts exceeded the 213 of Gallo.
With his
104 RBI, Schwarber eclipsed the total of third baseman Mark Reynolds who
accrued 85 RBI while batting .198 for the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks. A
“three-true-outcomes hitter” in the same vein as Schwarber and Gallo,
Reynolds’ overall skill set even more closely resembled the Phillies
left fielder’s as both struggled on defense. During Reynolds’ and
Schwarber’s respective 2010 and 2023 campaigns, the former produced -6
DRS (defensive runs saved below average) at third base while the latter
compiled an unsightly -20 DRS that ranked worst among NL outfielders. A
different fielding metric, total zone, viewed Schwarber’s defense less
harshly, crediting him as -10 fielding runs below average, a number that
only slotted 10th-worst among NL outfielders. By contrast, during the
2021 season, Gallo took home his second Gold Glove Award after providing
steady defense as a right fielder for the Rangers and a left fielder
for the Yankees, racking up 15 defensive runs saved above average and 12
fielding runs above average—the third-highest total among AL
outfielders in each metric. The 2010 campaign represented a step
backwards for Reynolds following a solid 2009 effort which saw him smack
44 home runs and collect 102 RBI while batting .260 despite setting a
dubious MLB record that still stands by striking out an astounding 223
times. Although the 2010 season was a disappointing one for Reynolds,
he was able to establish new benchmarks for sub-.200 hitters in home
runs, RBI, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. Not surprisingly,
Reynolds also set a new high for strikeouts by a sub-.200 hitter with
his 211 topping Rob Deer’s 175 from 1991. In 2021, Gallo overtook
Reynolds in each of these categories excluding RBI. This pattern
repeated itself in 2023 when Schwarber eclipsed Gallo in each of those
categories while also bettering Reynolds’ RBI total.
During 2023, Schwarber only missed two contests and finished the season with 160 games played, matching the sub-.200 hitter mark set by Carlos Peña in 2012. Because Schwarber rarely missed a contest and the Phillies were comfortable with batting him out of the leadoff spot, he was able to establish new benchmarks for sub-.200 hitters in plate appearances, at bats, and hits—each of which had been set by New York Yankees shortstop Frank Crosetti in 1940. Noted more for his slick fielding and competitive spirit than his hitting, Crosetti had already been part of a handful of World Series championship Yankees teams, winning his first ring as a rookie in 1932 and four more in consecutive years from 1936 to 1939. The primarily leadoff hitter for New York since 1934, Crosetti carried just a .255 career mark into 1940 but offset his low average by regularly drawing walks. In contrast to Schwarber, Gallo, and Reynolds, Crosetti was not a serious power threat as he generally hit only around 10 home runs per season. Yet, like each of those three sluggers, Crosetti experienced the dishonor of leading the league in strikeouts, pacing the AL on two occasions with 105 in 1937 and 97 in 1938. Remaining at the top of the batting order for 1940, the veteran shortstop slumped heavily, hitting below .200 for much of the spring and summer before the team decided to drop him back to the eight-hole in early August. Crosetti finished the year with a .194 average but managed to set new highs for sub-.200 hitters in a host of categories. Crosetti held onto many of these benchmarks for multiple decades until Gallo surpassed his runs scored total in 2021 and Schwarber eclipsed his numbers in the aforementioned categories of plate appearances, at bats, and hits in 2023. New York’s 1940 struggles were not solely limited to Crosetti as the four-time defending champions fell to third in the AL pennant race. During the following season, Crosetti lost his starting role at shortstop to future Hall of Famer Phil Rizzuto but remained with the Yankees and won two more World Series rings with the team as a bench player.
Schwarber continued to exhibit
his colossal power in the 2023 postseason, blasting five home runs, each
of which came during the NLCS where the slugger batted an
uncharacteristically-high .364 and was arguably Philadelphia’s top
hitter in the club’s upset loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. This
followed a 2022 playoffs which saw him belt six long balls in 17 games
en route to helping the Phillies claim the NL pennant. A solid
postseason performer throughout his career, Schwarber passed Reggie
Jackson to set the record for playoff home runs by a left-handed batter. With 20 postseason long balls, Schwarber currently ranks alongside
Derek Jeter in a tie for fourth all-time, trailing only the 29 of Manny
Ramírez, 27 of Jose Altuve, and 22 of Bernie Williams. However,
Schwarber has launched his playoff round-trippers at a much more
prolific rate than the sluggers ahead of him, racking up his 20 long
balls over a mere 65 playoff games and 259 plate appearances. With the
Phillies positioned to remain a contender and the 30-year-old Schwarber
signed to the team through 2025, it is likely he will continue to add to his
playoff home run total.
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----by John Tuberty
Follow me on Twitter/X @BloggerTubbs
Stat
links to main players mentioned: Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Juan Soto,
Joey Gallo, Curtis Granderson, Max Muncy, Pete Alonso, Kyle Seager, Jay Buhner, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Reggie Jackson, Manny Ramírez,
Jose Altuve, Bernie Williams, Shorty Fuller, Hugh Nichol, Carlos Peña,
Tony Armas, Roy Sievers, Mark Reynolds, Frank Crosetti
Sources:
All statistics are drawn from Baseball Reference and Stathead
Cards:
Kyle Schwarber cards-2022 Topps Update Series 1987 Topps Baseball,
2022 Topps Heritage High Number, 2022 Topps Archives 1978 Topps Design,
2023 Topps Big League, 2023 Topps, 2022 Topps Stadium Club, 2022 Topps
Update; Shorty Fuller 1887-1889 Old Judge Cabinets, Curtis Granderson
2013 Topps, Max Muncy 2013 Topps Series 2, Pete Alonso 2023 Topps, Kyle
Seager 2022 Topps, Tony Armas 1984 Topps, Roy Sievers 1954 Topps
Archives, Joey Gallo 2019 Topps Vintage, Mark Reynolds 2010 Topps, Frank
Crosetti 1936 Goudey Wide Pen Premiums
Other Articles by Tubbs Baseball Blog:
Rod Carew’s Seven Batting Titles and the Players He Denied the Honor by Annually Capturing the Crown
Great read you put a lot of time and effort and research into this piece. Very cool thanks. Tim
ReplyDeleteTim, I appreciate your kind words. Thank you.
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