Holding Separate Elections For Player and Non-Player Candidates Would Greatly Improve the Hall of Fame's Era Ballot Vote Process

During last July's annual induction weekend, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced a major change to its voting process when it reduced the maximum years a candidate is eligible to appear on the BBWAA ballot from 15 to 10.  This change made big news since the Hall of Fame rarely modifies the BBWAA's voting process.  By contrast, the Hall of Fame's other major voting body, the Veterans Committee, has undergone several revisions, a number of which came in the last two decades.  The most recent of these changes was the splitting of the Veterans Committee into three separate 16-member Era committees, each representing a different era of baseball, with the Expansion Era in charge of the time period after 1972, the Golden Era covering 1947 to 1972, and the Pre-Integration Era judging 1876 to 1946.  Beginning with the December 2010 election, the Era Committees have met once every three years in a rotating cycle, with the Expansion Era voting in 2010 and 2013 and the Golden Era voting in 2011 and 2014, while the Pre-Integration Era voted in 2012 and is slated to vote for the second time in December.  With the recent change to the BBWAA ballot and December's Pre-Integration Era vote representing two full cycles under the current system, it is likely that the Hall of Fame board members will review and possibly make modifications to the Era ballot process in 2016.  One change that would greatly improve the Era ballot vote process would be holding separate elections for player and non-player candidates.

Below are the results from the five Era ballot elections with non-player candidates highlighted in red:

Dec '10			Dec '11			Dec '12
Exp Era	Vote %		Golden Era	Vote %		Pre Int Era	Vote %
Gillick	81.3%		Santo	93.8%		O'Day	93.8%
Miller	68.8%		Kaat	62.5%		Ruppert	93.8%
Concepcion	50.0%		Hodges	56.3%		White	87.5%
Blue	<50.0%		Minoso	56.3%		Dahlen	62.5%
Garvey	<50.0%		Oliva	50.0%		Breadon	<25.0%
Guidry	<50.0%		Bavasi	<18.8%		Ferrell	<25.0%
John	<50.0%		Boyer	<18.8%		Marion	<25.0%
Martin	<50.0%		Finley	<18.8%		Mullane	<25.0%
Oliver	<50.0%		Reynolds	<18.8%		Reach	<25.0%
Simmons	<50.0%		Tiant	<18.8%		Walters	<25.0%
Staub	<50.0%
Steinbrenner	<50.0%
Dec '13			Dec '14
Exp Era	Vote %		Golden Era	Vote %
Cox	100%		Allen	68.8%
LaRussa	100%		Oliva	68.8%
Torre	100%		Kaat	62.5%
Concepcion	<43.8%		Wills	56.3%
Garvey	<43.8%		Minoso	50.0%
John	<43.8%		Boyer	<18.8%
Martin	<43.8%		Hodges	<18.8%
Miller	<43.8%		Howsam	<18.8%
Parker	<43.8%		Pierce	<18.8%
Quisenberry	<43.8%		Tiant	<18.8%
Simmons	<43.8%
Steinbrenner	<43.8%

In the five elections held under the Era Ballot vote process six non-player candidates--Pat Gillick, Hank O'Day, Jacob Ruppert, Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre--garnered the 75% of the vote required to be elected to the Hall of Fame by their respective Era Committees.  However, in the same elections just two player candidates--Ron Santo and Deacon White--have been voted in.  The Expansion and Pre-Integration Eras have each had a large number of spots on their ballots taken by non-players with a player candidate finishing no higher than third in their elections.  By contrast, the Golden Era has had just three non-player candidates in their elections, none of whom drew serious support.  Sharing the ballot with non-player candidates has particularly had an adverse affect on player candidates from the Expansion Era as no player has been able to pick up more than 50% of the vote.  Conversely, each Golden Era vote has seen four player candidates amass over 50% of the vote with Santo gaining election on the December 2011 vote and Dick Allen and Tony Oliva each coming just one vote shy in 2014.

Kaat & John have seen vastly different vote totals on the Era ballots

A good example of the effects of having player and non-player candidates on the same ballot is the disparity in vote totals between Golden Era candidate Jim Kaat and Expansion Era candidate Tommy John.  No two pitchers on any of the Era Committee ballots have careers as similar as Kaat and John.  As highlighted on the table below Kaat's and John's career numbers are very comparable and both are the number one most similar pitcher for each other on Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores.

	W	L	W-L%	ERA	IP	SO	ERA+	WAR
Kaat	283	237	0.544	3.45	4530.1	2461	108	51.4
John	288	231	0.555	3.34	4710.1	2245	111	62.0

In addition to their comparable numbers, Kaat and John each had three 20-game-winning seasons and had long careers that encompassed a quarter-century or more.  Each pitcher drew about the same support in their fifteen years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot with Kaat garnering 19.5% of the vote in his debut on the ballot and peaking at 29.6% while John collected 21.3% on his initial appearance and picked up his highest vote total on his last at 31.7%.  From 1963 to 1983, their lengthy careers overlapped, including a brief run as teammates for the New York Yankees during parts of the 1979 and 1980 seasons.  However, since more of Kaat's career took place during the Sixties and early-Seventies, he appears on the Golden Era ballot while John's Hall of Fame case is judged by the Expansion Era Committee because more of his career stretched over the Eighties and the latter part of the Seventies.

Despite having similar careers and BBWAA Hall of Fame support, the two pitchers have had vastly different vote totals on the Era Committee ballots.  With few non-player candidates to contend with, Kaat has picked up 62.5% of the vote on each of his Golden Era ballot appearances--just two marks shy of election.  By contrast, John shared the ballot with several solid non-player candidates on both of his appearances on the Expansion Era vote.  On the 2010 ballot, non-player candidates Pat Gillick and Marvin Miller collected the most votes with Gillick gaining election and the polarizing Miller falling a single tally short.  John's vote totals on the 2010 ballot were not even released by the Hall of Fame who placed him in the ambiguous category of having received "less than eight votes."  The presence of LaRussa, Cox, and Torre--respectively the third, fourth, and fifth winningest managers in baseball history--made the rest of the 2013 ballot an afterthought to the degree that all the other candidates' vote totals, including John's, were listed as "six or fewer votes."  John's support may have also been affected by George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin, two controversial but memorable non-player candidates who each appeared on both Expansion Era ballots.  John spent a good portion of his career with the Yankees but sharing the ballot with Steinbrenner--the franchise's long-time owner--and Martin--one of the hurler's managers during his time in pinstripes--likely drew attention away from John.  Having player and non-player candidates share the ballot has resulted in a significant gap in votes for Kaat and John, two pitchers who spent most of their careers as contemporaries and retired with similar accomplishments and virtually identical statistics.

Grich, Evans, Hernandez, & Piniella have yet to make the Exp Era ballot

Another example of the negative effects of having players and non-players on the same ballot is the number of solid candidates passed over for the Era ballots.  Eligible candidates for each Era ballot are screened by the Historical Overview Committee which makes the final selections.  While each era has their share of eligible candidates who have been overlooked, those who have been passed over for Expansion Era ballots stand out more than others.  The 2013 Expansion Era ballot was memorable for the unanimous elections of three of baseball's all-time greatest managers, LaRussa, Cox, and Torre.  However, when selecting the ballot, the Historical Overview Committee excluded three excellent player candidates--Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, and Keith Hernandez--as well as an impressive non-player candidate--former manager Lou Piniella.  Each of the three overlooked players has a strong Hall of Fame case by traditional as well as advanced metrics, while Piniella has accomplishments that are comparable to many Hall of Fame managers: 

Grich--sported a slick glove and potent bat, winning four Gold Gloves at second base with a 125 career OPS+ as well as a 70.9 WAR which was higher than any other player who was eligible for the 2010 or 2013 Expansion Era ballot.  Reached base at a stellar .371 clip for his career but his .266 average hurt him with BBWAA voters, though it is comparable to several middle infielders in the Hall of Fame including Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio, and Pee Wee Reese.  Hit 224 career home runs, which at the time of his 1986 retirement, trailed only six other regular middle infielders.

Evans--won eight Gold Gloves in right field and retired just shy of 400 home runs (385) and 2,500 hits (2,446).  Like Grich, BBWAA voters probably were too focused on his career batting average--an adequate but unspectacular .272--and overlooked his .370 career OBP.  The combination of his underrated hitting and revered glovework are underscored by his 127 career OPS+ and 66.9 WAR.  Played nearly two decades for the celebrated Boston Red Sox franchise and is among the club's all-time top-five leaders for many categories including WAR, hits, total bases, home runs, and RBIs while ranking second to Carl Yastrzemski in games played and trailing only "Yaz" and Ted Williams in runs scored, doubles, walks, and extra base hits.

Hernandez--won a record eleven Gold Gloves at first base, hit nearly .300 for his career (.296), and was voted co-NL MVP with Willie Stargell in 1979.  Hall of Fame case is hurt by a mid-career cocaine scandal but he cleaned up his act and was a leader on the field and in the clubhouse for the '86 Mets--arguably the most celebrated World Series winning team of the 1980's.  Also, played a significant role on the '82 World Championship Cardinals.  Defensive skill set was so unique for a first baseman and his fielding abilities were so impressive that his excellence actually transcended the position.  Career also looks strong through the lens of advanced metrics with a 128 OPS+ and 60.0 WAR despite being dragged down by the positional adjustment penalties assessed for playing first.

Piniella--14th all-time with 1,835 career wins, trailing twelve Hall of Fame managers with just one non-Hall of Fame manager, Gene Mauch, ahead of him.  Unlike Mauch, retired with a winning career record (.517) and led a team to the World Championship (1990 Cincinnati Reds).  Tied a Major League record with 116 regular season wins as manager of the 2001 Seattle Mariners.

Of those four overlooked candidates, only Grich was eligible to be added to the 2010 Expansion Era ballot.  The Historical Overview Committee nominated five position players--Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Al Oliver, Ted Simmons, and Rusty Staub, three pitchers--Vida Blue, Ron Guidry, and Tommy John, and four non-players--Pat Gillick, Billy Martin, Marvin Miller, and George Steinbrenner--for the 2010 ballot.  Grich's exclusion from this ballot was not so much the result of having players and non-players share the ballot as it was due to the Committee's reluctance to include advanced metrics in their discussions and evaluate candidates by more than just traditional statistics.  Concepcion, Garvey, and John were understandable choices since they were the only eligible candidates who lasted their full 15 years of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot.  Also, the additions of Blue and Guidry helped bring the ballot a better balance between pitchers and position players.  However, the selections of the three other position players over Grich--particularly Oliver and Staub--reflected the Committee's over-emphasis on traditional stats such as hits and batting average and discounting of advanced metrics like WAR and OPS+ as well as overlooked stats such as walks and on base percentage.

In the three years between Expansion Era votes, overlooked stats started to gain more attention and advanced metrics became more widely accepted by the baseball community, giving Grich and players such as Evans and Hernandez with solid sabermetric career statistics a stronger Hall of Fame case and better chance at being nominated for the ballot.  Yet, when the 2013 Expansion Era ballot was released, neither Grich, nor Evans, nor Hernandez were among the twelve candidates nominated.  Instead, the Historical Overview Committee selected four position players, two pitchers, and a staggering six non-players for the ballot.  Once again, the Historical Overview Committee showed a preference toward players who lasted 15 years on the BBWAA ballot, giving holdovers Concepcion, Garvey, and John another shot on the Expansion Era ballot while adding Dave Parker, the only newly eligible player candidate to last 15 BBWAA elections.  Position player Ted Simmons, along with non-player candidates Martin, Miller, and Steinbrenner also returned as holdovers from the 2010 Expansion Era ballot.  The additions of newly eligible non-player candidates LaRussa, Cox, and Torre gave the ballot an equal amount of non-player to player candidates as aside from Parker, the Committee only nominated one other newly eligible player candidate in relief pitcher Dan Quisenberry who was likely selected with the intention of adding another pitcher because without him, Tommy John would have been the sole hurler on the ballot.  LaRussa, Cox, and Torre were each unanimously voted in on the ensuing election.

Whitaker is at risk of being passed over for the 2016 ballot

Due to the lack of space caused by having players and non-players share the ballot, holdovers from the previous election, the Committee's preference for selecting candidates who lasted 15 years in BBWAA voting, and the effort to balance the ballot between position players and pitchers, there was virtually no chance for Grich, Evans, Hernandez, or Piniella to be included on the 2013 Expansion Era ballot.  Barring an overhaul of the current voting process or a purging of most of the holdovers, there will be little room for the Committee to add any previously excluded candidates to the ballot and address what is becoming a growing backlog of overlooked candidates.  Moreover, Grich, Evans, and Hernandez will likely be passed over again in favor of Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, and Dale Murphy--three candidates set to become eligible in 2016 who lasted 15 years on the BBWAA ballot.  Grich, Evans, and Hernandez each have much stronger Hall of Fame cases by advanced metrics than Mattingly, Morris, and Murphy but the lack of support they received in BBWAA voting over a decade ago may doom their chances to make the Expansion Era ballot.  What's more, even a worthy candidate like Lou Whitaker, who is also eligible for the first time on the 2016 ballot, may be passed over by the Committee--despite having fine traditional stats and a higher career WAR (74.9) than any eligible player--just because he did not last 15 years on the BBWAA ballot.  Piniella also runs the risk of being overlooked for the next Expansion Era ballot, as the Committee will undoubtedly nominate newly eligible non-player candidate Bud Selig while also considering Jim Leyland, Davey Johnson, and Dusty Baker--each of whom are slated to become eligible in 2016.

By holding separate elections for players and non-players, the Committee would be able to continue to add candidates who lasted 15 years in BBWAA voting while also having enough room on the ballot for candidates such as Grich, Evans, Hernandez, and Whitaker whose Hall of Fame cases are strengthened by advanced metrics but were too quickly dismissed by BBWAA voters.  In addition, putting the non-players on their own ballot would not only give the Committee space to select a solid candidate like Piniella but could also allow for intriguing non-managerial candidates such as Johnny Sain, Dave Duncan, and Leo Mazzone--each of whom made their mark as pitching coaches--to make their way onto their respective Era ballot.

Revising the voting process and holding separate elections for players and non-players would not be an unprecedented move by the Hall of Fame.  In fact, from 2003 to 2009, the Hall of Fame ran several Veterans Committee elections with player and non-player candidates on separate ballots.  Moreover, just before adopting the Era ballot voting process, the Hall of Fame briefly used a format in which player candidates were split into two separate ballots--one for players who started their careers prior to 1943 and another for players whose careers began in 1943 or later--while non-player candidates were also split into two separate ballots--one comprised of managers and umpires and the other for executives.  Yet, after several elections with players and non-players on separate ballots, the Hall of Fame went back to putting all candidates on one ballot when it adopted the Era ballot process.

In summary, after modifying the BBWAA vote format, changes could be on the horizon for the Era ballot process since December's Pre-Integration Era vote will represent two full cycles under the current system.  The change that would most improve the Era ballot vote process would be holding separate elections for player and non-player candidates.  This would likely eliminate the disparity in votes for Jim Kaat and Tommy John, two candidates with similar careers but vastly different vote totals due to being eligible on different Era ballots.  Separate elections would also give the Historical Overview Committee the opportunity to clear the growing backlog of overlooked candidates by having more space to nominate worthy player and non-player candidates.

----by John Tuberty

Sources:  Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Play Index, Baseball Hall of Fame, USA Today

Photo credit:  Jim Kaat & Tommy John 1980 Topps; Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez, & Lou Piniella 1987 Topps; Lou Whitaker 1984 Fleer

Other Articles By Tubbs Baseball Blog:
Bobby Grich Was The Victim of Some Bad Baseball Cards and Some Even Worse Hall of Fame Voting

Dwight Evans' Strong Sabermetric Statistics Underscore His Overlooked Hall of Fame Case 

Keith Hernandez, Whitey Herzog, and The Controversial Trade That Revived The New York Mets