Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame and The High Road In The Steroid Era

McGriff 1987 Topps Traded

           It was a tough year for sluggers from the "Steroid Era" in January's Hall of Fame vote.  First time nominees Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez learned that a failed drug test or an appearance on the Mitchell Report will only result in 11% and 5% of the vote, respectively.  Another first timer, Jeff Bagwell, didn't bring the same failed drug test/Mitchell report baggage, just suspicion and whispers about his body shape.  Whether these whispers are fair or not, Bagwell, once thought to be a possible first ballot Hall of Famer debuted with just 42% of the vote.  Admitting steroid use doesn't help you gain lost votes either as holdover Mark McGwire found out, seeing his vote percentage drop from 24% in 2010 to a new low of 20% in 2011.  It appears the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) are taking the hard line with suspected and proven Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) users.  So how do you explain the lack of support for Fred McGriff, one of the few sluggers from the "Steroid Era" who was not caught up in PED use allegations and never had the “PED user” label?  McGriff, in his second year on the ballot, actually saw his vote percentage drop from 22% to 18%.

             Controversy makes news and the Hall of Fame seems to always be more about who doesn't get in rather than who does get in.  Just as Pete Rose not being on the ballot engulfed the Hall of Fame in controversy in prior decades, now the BBWAA's handling of the sluggers from the "Steroid Era" is the new controversy.  A lot of BBWAA members feel like they are “gatekeepers” protecting the Hall of Fame from suspected and proven PED users.  That's why it is so unfair for a player like Fred McGriff, who seemingly stayed clean and was thus overshadowed by an era of PED users, to once again be overshadowed by these same players when the BBWAA votes for the Hall of Fame.  This year was bad enough but it's only going to be worst when Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Roger Clemens appear on the ballot in 2013.

            McGriff, nicknamed "Crime Dog", started his major league career with five at bats for the 1986 Toronto Blue Jays, debuting the same year as Bonds, McGwire. and Palmeiro.  Of the four, only Bonds played regularly in 1986.  McGriff quickly established himself as one of baseball’s most feared sluggers, hitting between 31 to 37 home runs in the seven-year span from 1988 to the strike-shortened 1994 season and finished each year in the top 4 in home runs in his respective league, leading the AL in 1989 and NL in 1992.  During the same seven-year span, Bonds’ combination of power and speed led the sometimes reluctant writers to overlook his strained relationship with the press and vote him the NL’s MVP in 1990, 1992, and 1993.  Despite hitting home runs with the most frequency of the four, McGwire struggled to follow up his record-setting 49 home run rookie year, experiencing a drop in batting average while also suffering injuries that kept him off the field for extended periods of time during the 1993 and 1994 seasons.  Palmeiro, on the other hand, was finally evolving from a doubles hitter into a home run threat.

Then things started to get silly, first baseball went on strike and then the remainder of the 1994 season along with the World Series was canceled.  When play resumed, the players and their home run totals were growing at impressive and alarming rates.  Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro all enjoyed multiple 40 home run seasons and names such as Sammy Sosa, Ken Caminiti, and Todd Hundley, along with several others, also joined the ranks of players with 40 home run campaigns.  While no longer a perennial MVP candidate and home run leader, McGriff was still a very productive player, averaging 27 HR, 99 RBI, .288 BA, .371 OBP and an adjusted OPS of 122 from 1995 to 2002 before finishing his distinguished career with an injury-riddled one-year tour of duty with the Dodgers (the only season he spent time on the disabled list) and an 81 at bat last hurrah/final stab at 500 home runs the following year with the uncompetitive Devil Rays.

            "Crime Dog" ended his career with 493 home runs and saw a natural decline and occasional rebound in his home run totals over the remainder of his career.  By contrast, his peers Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro’s amount of at bats per home run decreased by almost half for the balance of their careers after the 1994 baseball strike.  Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro rode their impressive seasons to 762, 583, and 569 career home runs, respectively.  Five hundred home runs, once considered to be an almost unreachable goal, was now being surpassed almost yearly.

           

“Myself personally, I would laugh when I’d see these guys hit these long home runs.  I mean, basically, we all came up at the same time and had about the same power.

“But before you knew it, they were hitting 50, 60 and 70 home runs.  I’d just be amazed at how far they were hitting them.”-Fred McGriff in a February 2005 USA Today article written by Bob Nightengale

            McGriff’s Home Run Totals vs. his peers                              

                        86-94              95-on              Career total               

McGriff            262                 231 (95-04)           493                         

Bonds             259                 503 (95-07)           762                

McGwire         238                 345 (95-01)           583                

McGriff 1991 Topps Traded

Palmeiro        155                  414 (95-05)           569                    

McGriff’s AB per HR vs. his peers

                        86-94              95-on              Career total

McGriff            15.2                20.7 (95-04)            17.8

Bonds             17.4                10.6 (95-07)            12.9

McGwire         14.0                  8.2 (95-01)            10.6

Palmeiro         27.8                14.9 (95-05)            18.4

In the following years, many of McGriff’s contemporaries’ names and their home run totals would be called into question as one after another saw their PED use come to light.  McGwire and Palmeiro would both be called before Congress in March 2005 during the investigation of steroids in baseball.  “Big Mac’s” defensive and evasive testimony forever tarnished his image and the ensuing fallout may have ultimately led McGwire to finally admit in 2010 that he had indeed used steroids during his career.  Palmeiro, on the other hand, went on the offensive during the congressional investigation and steadfastly denied ever using steroids only to test positive for the steroid stanozolol later that year.  In addition, if we are to believe what Jose Canseco and others have said, McGwire and Palmeiro’s PED usage had its origins early in their careers and the greater part of their 500-plus home runs are suspect.  Sadly, overshadowed by others’ unreal home run totals, Bonds is alleged to have joined them in PED use to bolster his already impressive home run totals.  Conversely, McGriff seems to have taken the high road, which has saved him from embarrassment and dishonor only to once again be overshadowed by his peers, this time on the Hall of Fame ballot.

            While it appears the Hall of Fame voters are punishing McGwire, Palmeiro, and others for their PED use during the “Steroid Era”, this hasn’t resulted in increased votes for McGriff.  Many voters are quick to commend McGriff as one of the few clean sluggers during the “Steroid Era” yet write off his candidacy and say his statistics don’t quite measure up in the era he played in.  Undoubtedly, “Crime Dog” did play most of his career in a “hitter’s era”, but in the five years before the 1993 expansion draft that ushered in the dawn of the “hitter’s era”, no one in baseball hit more home runs than McGriff who in addition to his power was also one of baseball’s best all around players.  Though McGriff may have benefited from playing in the post-expansion hitter’s era, he also had to face his share of PED using starting pitchers, middle relievers, set up men, and closers so it’s unlikely he gained a very large number of home runs just by playing in this era.

McGriff 1997 Score

            While McGriff didn’t have the automatic Hall of Fame totals like 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, he was hardly a one-dimensional power hitter.  In addition to his 493 career homers, he finished with a .284 BA, .377 OBP, 2,490 hits, 1,550 RBIs, and 134 adjusted OPS.  McGriff was also a very consistent player who hit at least 19 home runs a year from 1987 to 2002, including 30 or more ten times during that stretch.  While not quite Gold Glove caliber in the field, McGriff was the definition of durability, appearing in 2239 games at first base, third all time behind Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Jake Beckley, thus preventing his team from having to use a replacement-level bench player in his place.  In addition, “Crime Dog” made five All Star appearances and was the driving force that led the Braves past the Giants to the 1993 NL West Division title after his trade from the Padres just before the deadline.  Unfortunately, McGriff’s impact on the Braves 1993 Division title win is largely understated since it was the third of fourteen straight for the franchise but he was still their starting first baseman and clean-up hitter two years later when they won their long overdue Championship and was one of the few Atlanta players whose post-season numbers were actually better than his regular season totals (.323 BA, .411 OBP, .992 OPS with 10 HRs and 34 RBIs in 45 games).

 

Foreign substances and cheating have been around throughout the history of baseball but the PEDs of the “Steroid Era” made a mockery of baseball statistics and home run totals like no other substance, whether it be “greenies”, cocaine, or a corked bat.  It is unlikely that many of the suspected and proven PED users of the “Steroid Era” would have perennially hit 40 home runs or came anywhere near surpassing 500 home runs without the assistance of steroids and other PEDs. McGriff’s PED using contemporaries and their unnatural home run totals minimized his statistics and caused his achievements to be overlooked.  While the BBWAA may not be admitting a proven PED user in the Hall of Fame anytime soon, it would be nice to see them take a second look at Fred McGriff’s career.  Almost every player who is deemed worthy enough to be voted into the Hall of Fame has a dominant career peak and for McGriff it’s unfortunate that his career peak of 1988-1994 was overshadowed by the dawn of the “Steroid Era” and its exaggerated home run totals.  “Crime Dog’s” career path seems to be one less traveled and hopefully taking the high road will one day lead to his induction in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

 

A quick look at McGriff’s HR totals vs. the league leaders during his career peak, his place among the leaders during the height of the “Steroid Era”, and a look at how accused and proven PED users affected HR totals

Red donates player was an accused or proven PED user or, in Albert Belle’s case, a corked bat user at some point in their career

Purple donates player was a member of the Colorado Rockies who played at Mile High Stadium or Coors Field, both extreme hitter’s parks where 30 or more home runs seemed to come easily

From 1988 to 1994 McGriff was in the top 4 in home runs for his league:

     88 AL                                            89 AL                                           90 AL

1. Canseco OAK            42         1. McGriff TOR             36         1. Fielder DET                        51

2. McGriff TOR             34         2. Carter CLE                 35         2. McGwire OAK                    39

3. McGwire OAK            32         3. McGwire OAK             33         3. Canseco OAK                    37

4. Murray BAL                 28         4. Jackson KCR             32         4. McGriff TOR                     35

4. Gaetti MIN                   28         5. Esasky BOS               30         5. Gruber TOR                       31

     91 NL                                            92 NL

1. Johnson NYM              38        1. McGriff SDP             35

2. Williams SFG              34        2. Bonds PIT                  34

3. Gant ATL                     32        3. Sheffield SDP            33

4. Dawson CHC              31       4.  Daulton PHI                27

4. McGriff SDP              31       4.  Hollins PHI                  27

PED use was becoming more prevalent at the start of the 1990s but at the time 1993 and 1994 were considered “hitters years” (similar to 1987) and expansion, in addition to the emergence of smaller ballparks, had also helped bring home run totals up.

     93 NL                                           94 NL

1. Bonds SFG                   46      1. Williams SFG              43

2. Justice ATL                   40      2. Bagwell HOU               39

3. Williams SFG               38       3. Bonds SFG                 37

4. McGriff SDP/ATL       37       4. McGriff ATL               34

5. Gant ATL                      36       5. Galarraga COL            31

From 1995 on McGriff, now in his early 30s, starts his natural decline while the league leaders and Rockies sluggers push 40 plus HRs:

     95 NL                                             96 NL                                         97 NL

1. Bichette COL                40         1. Galarraga COL          47        1. Walker COL                     49

2. Sosa      CHC                36        2. Bonds SFG                42        2. Bagwell HOU                    43

2. Walker COL                  36        2. Sheffield FLA              42       3. Galarraga COL                  41

4. Bonds SFG                   33        4. Hundley NYM              41        4. Piazza LAD                       40

5. Castilla COL                 32        5. Castilla COL               40        4. Bonds SFG                       40

5. Piazza LAD                   32        5. Caminiti SDP             40        4. Castilla COL                      40

5. Karros LAD                   32        5. Sosa CHC                  40       

      5. Burks COL                  40

11.McGriff ATL                27       22.McGriff ATL              28        26. McGriff ATL                  22

     98 AL                                             99 AL                                           00 AL

1. Griffey SEA                    56        1. Griffey SEA                48        1. Glaus ANA                         47

2. Belle CHW                     49        2. Palmeiro TEX            47        2. Thomas CHW                   43

3. Canseco TOR               46        3. Delgado TOR            44        2. Giambi OAK                       43

4. Gonzalez TEX               45        3. Ramirez CLE            44         4. Batista TOR                      41

4. Ramirez CLE                45        5. Rodriguez SEA          42        4. Rodriguez SEA                  41

                                                      5. Green TOR                42        4. Justice CLE/NYY                41

                                                                                                         4. Delgado TOR                     41

42.McGriff TBR               19       17.McGriff TBR             32        28.McGriff TBR                    27

In the early 2000s the home run totals get even more ridiculous with most of the leaders eventually being exposed as PED users and joined by many “suspected PED users” with interesting statistical anomalies in their careers.

     01 AL                                             01 NL                                          02 NL

1. Rodriguez TEX              52        1. Bonds SFG                 73        1. Sosa CHC                        49

2. Thome CLE                   49         2. Sosa CHC                  64        2. Bonds SFG                      46

3. Palmeiro TEX                47         3. Gonzalez ARI             57        3. Green LAD                        42

4. Ramirez CLE                 41         4. Green LAD                49        3. Berkman HOU                   42

4. Glaus ANA                     41         4. Helton COL                49        5. Guerrero MON                   39

14.McGriff TBR/CHC      31*       22.McGriff TBR/CHC   31*      14.McGriff CHC                    30

*McGriff’s 31 home runs split between Tampa Bay and Chicago would have ranked him 14^th in the AL and 22^nd in the NL

McGriff 1999 Fleer Ultra Gold Medallion

Sources: Baseball Reference, Baseball Almanac, ESPN, ESPN The Magazine, USA Today, Washington Post, Sports Illustrated, San Francisco Chronicle, Boston Globe

Assessing Roy Halladay And Other Active Ace’s Hall of Fame Chances

            A recent baseball-reference.com article about Roy Halladay’s Hall of Fame chances and a conversation with a friend about other active pitchers’ chances made me notice that a large number of star pitchers are entering their early 30s.  With Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, Mark Buehrle, and John Lackey all completing their age 31 year, I decided to take a look at where each of these aces are in their careers along with other pitchers from their peer group.

Roy Halladay

Career at 31(98-08):  131-66 .665% 3.52ERA 255GS 40CG 11SHO 1807.2IP 1287SO 131ERA+ 1.208WHIP 40.6WAR 5xAS 2003CY 2x20 game winner

Roy Halladay’s 3.52 ERA may not be eye-popping but is more impressive when you consider it came playing with the Blue Jays against AL East powerhouses New York and Boston.

Career at 33(98-10):  169-86 .663% 3.32ERA 320GS 58CG 19SHO 2297.1IP 1714SO 136ERA+ 1.181WHIP 54.3WAR 7xAS 2003&2010CY 3x20 game winner

“Doc” Halladay may have picked up his first Cy Young in Toronto but it was a high profile trade to Philadelphia that made him a household name.  Halladay did even more than what was expected of him in his first year in Philly (harder than it sounds) by winning 20 games, throwing a perfect game, and picking up the NL Cy Young Award.  “Doc” capped it off by tossing the first playoff no-hitter in 50-plus years.

HOF chances:  Excellent.  A perfect game, a Cy Young in both leagues, and a playoff no-hitter; it would almost be harder for Halladay to pitch his way out of the Hall of Fame at this point but not too long ago David Cone’s career fell apart after pitching a perfect game (more on that in a future blog).  Depending on how long “Doc” pitches for Philadelphia and how successful he is, we may see a situation similar to Gary Carter and Andre Dawson where a Hall of Famer wears the cap of the team he played for longer but is less remembered playing for.  Look for Halladay to finish his career with about 275 wins, 3,000 plus strikeouts, be recognized as arguably the finest pitcher of his era, and be voted in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot…as a Toronto Blue Jay.

Cliff Lee

Career at 31(02-10):  102-61 .626% 3.85ERA 218GS 20CG 5SHO 1409.0IP 1085SO 112ERA+

1.256WHIP 22.1WAR 2xAS 2008CY 1x20 game winner

After suffering through an injury-riddled 2007 season in which he was demoted to the minors, Lee has won a Cy Young, become one the post-season’s brightest stars, and been both the hottest trade commodity and free agent.  What excitement will the next several years in Philadelphia bring?  Like his rotation mate Halladay, post-season heroics and being the centerpiece in a blockbuster trade have made Lee a household name.

HOF chances:  Fair.  Despite all the attention Lee has received in the last three years, he sits only 33^rd among active pitchers with 102 career wins and has only 26 wins during the past two years.  In one respect, Lee seems like a long shot for 250 plus wins but as long as his iron arm holds up, it’s not hard to imagine him dominating Randy Johnson style into his late 30s.  Finally with a pennant contender for a whole season we could see Lee with nearly 200 wins by the time he completes his five year contract with Philadelphia.

Roy Oswalt

Career at 31(01-09):  137-70 .662% 3.23ERA 271GS 18CG 6SHO 1803.1IP 1473SO 135ERA+

1.202WHIP 39.5WAR 3xAS 2x20 game winner

During his decade with Houston, Oswalt did pretty much everything except win a Cy Young award and a World Series ring.  Yet with the memorable Killer B's (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Lance Berkman) in the line-up and sharing the rotation with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, the quiet right-hander never quite got all the recognition he deserved while playing with the Astros.

Roy Oswalt 2004 Bowman Heritage

Career at 32(01-10):  150-83 .644% 3.18ERA 303GS 20CG 8SHO 2015.0IP 1666SO 135ERA+

1.184WHIP 44.6WAR 3xAS 2x20 game winner

When Philadelphia made their trade for Oswalt on July 29, the Phillies were on the outside looking in, two and a half games behind Atlanta in the NL East and tied with St Louis one and a half games behind San Francisco for the wildcard.  By going 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA after the trade to Philadelphia, Oswalt helped spur the Phillies to a 41-19 record the rest of the way and pass Atlanta for their fourth straight division title.  Few trade deadline deals have had the impact on a division title race the way Oswalt’s incredible performance did (Fred McGriff’s trade to Atlanta during the 1993 trade deadline comes to mind).  However, with Halladay’s incredible Cy Young season, Lee’s return, and Cole Hamels’ rediscovered late season form, Oswalt is becoming the forgotten ace of Philadelphia.

HOF chances:  Better than you think.  Before his trade to Philadelphia, Oswalt had talked about retiring once his current contract expires (he has a mutual option with Philadelphia for 2012) if he doesn't feel he is still pitching at a high enough level.  With quality pitching always at a premium, it’s hard to imagine Oswalt, known as “Little Roy” in Philadelphia (as opposed to Roy Halladay who is known as “Big Roy”), walking away from a top dollar contract.  Its doubtful Philadelphia will be able to re-sign Oswalt, so look for the Mississippi native to possibly sign with his other “hometown team”, the perennially pitching starved Texas Rangers.  Despite entertaining retirement talk, “Little Roy” led the NL in WHIP last year and shows no signs of slowing down.  With 150 wins already under his belt, Oswalt could finish his career with around 250 wins and join the likes of Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven as a debate worthy Hall of Fame candidate.

CC Sabathia

Career at 29(01-10):  157-88 .641% 3.57ERA 322GS 30CG 11SHO 2127.0IP 1787SO 123ERA+

1.228WHIP 42.3WAR 4xAS 2007CY 1x20 game winner

Going off subject for a moment, has anybody ever looked worst in pinstripes than CC Sabathia?  Sure Cecil Fielder and David Wells looked bad, but the sight of the 6-foot-7 nearly 300 pound Sabathia in his clownishly baggy Yankee uniform is an abomination.  With all of CC's tugging, pulling, and adjusting after every pitch, it's no wonder that Yankees games often take four hours to finish.  All jokes aside, Sabathia has been both durable and excellent throughout his career.  After signing a 7-year, $152 million contract with New York, Sabathia immediately paid dividends by helping the Yankees to their first World Championship in nine years.

HOF chances:  Excellent.  Get the Hall of Fame bust ready and make room for Sabathia’s number 52 to be retired at the Yankees’ Monument Park because barring a career threatening injury, both will happen.  With Mariano Rivera owning the 9^th inning, the Yankees are able to scale Sabathia’s innings and complete games back (he’s completed just four games in two years with New York after completing ten in 2008) so despite 2,000-plus innings before age 30, don’t look for CC’s arm to fall off any time soon .  Despite not completing as many games in New York, Sabathia has already amassed 40 wins in two years with the Yankees and led the AL in wins both years so 300 wins is not a stretch.  When Sabathia is eventually eligible for the Hall of Fame, look for a few writers to withhold votes and claim that the "New York media bias" overrated Sabathia's dominance or some writers point out how pitching for the Yankees inflated his win/loss record.  These viewpoints may cost Sabathia some Hall of Fame votes, but the majority of writers will recognize him as one of the greatest pitchers of his generation and enshrine the big left-hander into baseball immortality.

Johan Santana

Career at 31(00-10):  133-69 .658% 3.10ERA 263GS 13CG 8SHO 1908.2IP 1877SO 142ERA+

1.120WHIP 46.5WAR 4xAS 2004&2006CY 1x20 game winner

From 2004 to 2007, Johan Santana was Minnesota’s ace and in two of those four years the cash strapped, overachieving Twins made the postseason while the six foot tall overachieving Santana won two Cy Young awards.  Santana and the Twins were a great fit for each other but with free agency looming after the 2008 season, the Twins decided to trade him to the Mets following a disappointing third place finish in 2007.  Coming off a late season collapse in 2007, Santana appeared to be the final piece in the puzzle GM Omar Minaya was looking for to push his underachieving team over the top.  Unfortunately for Santana and Minaya things did not go according to plan.  In his first season with the Mets, Santana led the NL in ERA but only had 16 wins to show for it while the Mets once again found a way to just barely miss the post-season.  The following two seasons would be much less kind with the Mets record falling below .500 while Santana pitched well but won only a combined 24 games while suffering injuries both years including a shoulder injury that ended his 2010 season prematurely which he still has yet to return from.  In the past three seasons, Santana and the Twins fortunes have diverged with Minnesota averaging 90 wins per season and winning two AL Central titles while Santana’s Mets are now in rebuilding mode with Sandy Alderson taking over from Omar Minaya.

HOF Chances:  No longer excellent but still good.  In contrast to CC Sabathia, the “Big Apple” has not been kind to Santana and now a shoulder injury that will keep him out of action for a large portion of 2011 threatens his career.  Despite three disappointing years in Queens, Santana leads all active starting pitchers in career ERA and trails only Roy Halladay in career win percentage.  Santana is still young and if he comes back anywhere close to 100%, he’ll still be an effective pitcher and still have a great chance at resurrecting what appeared to be the makings of a Hall of Fame career.

Mark Buehrle

Career at 31(00-10):  148-110 .574% 3.85ERA 334GS 27CG 8SHO 2271.1IP 1287SO 120ERA+

1.280WHIP 42.9WAR 4xAS

Despite his 3.86 career ERA, Buehrle has more wins, at age 31, than each of Philadelphia’s aces (Halladay, Oswalt, and Lee) had at the same age and a higher WAR than both Roys and nearly double that of Cliff Lee.  In addition, the left-hander has a 2007 no-hitter, 2009 perfect game, and his role in Chicago’s 2005 World Series win to his credit.    

HOF chances:  Very small.  Like Roy Oswalt, Buehrle has recently discussed retiring once he completes his current contract, set to expire at season’s end.  In the past, the Missouri native has shown interest in finishing his career with the St Louis Cardinals.  One need only look at Chris Carpenter’s career to see what a move to St Louis under the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan can do for a pitcher: 49-50 4.83ERA 99ERA+ before Duncan and 84-33 2.98ERA 141ERA+ with Duncan.  Pitching his home games in a hitter’s park like U.S. Cellular Field in the offensive minded AL his whole career has depreciated Buehrle’s pitching stats.  With a weak 2012 free agent class of pitchers Buehrle’s services will be in demand so he will have several million reasons not to hang up the spikes just yet but it’s hard to see him a signing a contract of more than three or four years in what may be his final contract.  Buehrle is coming off an off-year in a “pitcher’s season”, so the left-hander’s best days may very well be behind him anyway.  Buehrle has had a nice career but barring a Dave Duncan influenced run of success, Buehrle probably won’t get the five percent of the votes needed to make it past the first ballot.

Tim Hudson

Career at 31(99-07):  135-70 .659% 3.51ERA 281GS 21CG 10SHO 1875.1IP 1287SO 126ERA+

1.260WHIP 36.9WAR 2xAS 1x20 game winner

Sharing the stage with a PED fueled power-hitting line up, a GM so intriguing that they made a movie about him, and two other great pitchers, it’s easy to forget how important Tim Hudson was to the “Moneyball” Oakland Athletics of the early 2000s.  “Huddy” was the first of the “Big Three” (Hudson, Mulder, and Zito) to be traded from Oakland and is the only one of the three to have a valuable post-Athletics career.

Tim Hudson 2009 Topps Heritage

Career at 34(99-10):  165-87 .655% 3.42ERA 344GS 23CG 11SHO 2288.1IP 1541SO 128ERA+

1.247WHIP 46.2WAR 3xAS 1x20 game winner

Take one look at Hudson’s .655 win percentage and it’s hard to dispute that he knows how to win ballgames (not one losing season in 12 years).  Hudson’s record is even more impressive when you consider the right-hander had 26 potential wins lost due to blown saves while pitching for the Athletics.  Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Hudson helped lead Atlanta to the wildcard last season and won the NL Comeback Player of the Year.

HOF chances:  Fair.  With Mark Mulder retired and Barry Zito barely hanging onto a rotation spot, Tim Hudson is the only member of Oakland’s “Big Three” to have a chance at the Hall of Fame.  Father time and health may not be on Hudson’s side but if he can stay healthy and pitch effectively into his early 40s, “Huddy” may very well have career numbers that will be hard for Hall of Fame voters to ignore.

John Lackey

Career at 31(02-10):  116-82 .586% 3.89ERA 266GS 14CG 8SHO 1716.0IP 1357SO 114ERA+

1.320WHIP 27.1WAR 1xAS

It seems like an eternity since Lackey became the first rookie in nearly 100 years to start and win a Game 7 of the World Series with his victory over the Giants in the 2002 World Series.  One hundred plus wins later, “Big John” has proved he’s no one-hit wonder and after eight seasons with the Angels, Lackey cashed in on a weak free agent pitching crop and signed a 5-year, $80 plus million dollar contract with the Red Sox following the 2009 season.

HOF chances:  Highly unlikely.  As long as Lackey stays healthy, pitches at a decent level, and doesn’t get traded away from Boston, the right-hander should be standing at between 175 to 200 wins at the duration of his contract.  Lackey’s first year in Boston wasn’t great (his ERA was 4.40) and he’ll need to improve his performance there (his career ERA at Fenway is nearly 5.00) to finish his contract with an ERA south of 4.00.  After seeing Felix Hernandez win the AL Cy Young last year and Jack Morris’ Hall of Fame vote percentage stagnate, it’s clear that wins are becoming a less and less important stat with the writers.  Pitching for a perennial contender like Boston, Lackey’s career win total and ERA may resemble that of Jack Morris when his career is over but aside from his Game 7 heroics, Lackey will never be mistaken for Jack Morris.

Josh Beckett  

Career at 30(01-10):  112-74 .602% 3.96ERA 246GS 9CG 4SHO 1528.2IP 1446SO 112ERA+

1.244WHIP 22.7WAR 2xAS 1x20 game winner

It will be interesting to see how well Beckett rebounds off a disastrous, negative WAR, injury-filled 2010 season.  There’s no doubting Beckett is a gamer but with only three seasons of over 200 innings pitched, injuries have obviously taken their toll on the right-hander’s career.

HOF chances:  Also high unlikely.  Who could forget Beckett’s 2003 World Series clinching five hit shutout over the mighty Yankees or his four wins during Boston’s 2007 Championship post-season playoff run?  Beckett may not own Cy Young trophies like Johan Santana or Jake Peavy but the right-hander’s post-season resume of two World Series rings along with an ALCS and World Series MVP trophy make him the envy of almost every pitcher in the game.  When it’s all said and done look for Beckett’s career numbers to fall somewhere closer to post-season money pitcher Dave Stewart’s career numbers rather than former teammate Curt Schilling’s or Jack Morris’.  Beckett will long be remembered for his post-season heroics and always be popular in Boston and Florida but in the end his career will have been too injury-plagued for serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Jake Peavy

Career at 29(02-10):  102-74 .580% 3.36ERA 232GS 8CG 4SHO 1469.2IP 1459SO 118ERA+

1.185WHIP 26.4WAR 2xAS 2007CY

During his time with San Diego, Peavy was a bit like the Padres version of Bret Saberhagen, alternating between plus-4.00 ERA and sub-3.00 seasons.  A trade from pitcher friendly Petco Park to hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field may keep his ERA north of 4.00 permanently.

HOF chances:  Not good and getting worse.  Currently on the disabled list with a shoulder injury that ended his 2010 season, Peavy could possibly comeback and show his 2007 Cy Young winning form.  However, injuries, a move to the offensive-minded AL, and having a bandbox for a home ballpark are not a good combination for a pitcher used to calling Petco Park his home.  Peavy hasn’t eclipsed 200 innings since 2007, his Cy Young seems like an eternity ago.

Carlos Zambrano

Career at 29(01-10):  116-74 .611% 3.50ERA 258GS 9CG 4SHO 1681.0IP 1441SO 127ERA+

1.308WHIP 31.1WAR 3xAS

Remember when Livan Hernandez burst on the scene and helped lead the 1997 Florida Marlins to an upset World Series win over the powerful Cleveland Indians?  I know I’d like to forget it too.  Remember how Alex Fernandez and others had to pander to him between innings to keep the moody, volatile Hernandez focused on the task at hand?  I know it was a long time ago.  Okay, remember how Hernandez got the reputation as a “money pitcher” and how Dusty Baker set his 2002 Giants World Series rotation so Hernandez would start Game 7?  Remember how Hernandez repaid his faith in him by losing his cool, arguing the strike zone with the umpire, and stomping and pouting on the mound until he was finally removed by Baker with no outs in the third inning down 4-1?  Remember the Angels celebrating their World Series win over Hernandez and the Giants?  My point?  Does Livan Hernandez remind you of Carlos Zambrano?  Both are big, mean right-handers.  Both can eat their share of innings and carry a team on their shoulders when the mood strikes them.  Both hit extremely well for pitchers.  Both have been known to fight with umpires over balls and strikes…although Zambrano takes it to a new level by actually fighting with his teammates.  Both have let their teams down when they needed them most.  Hernandez has become a baseball nomad, playing for seven teams while Zambrano, a better regular season pitcher than Hernandez, has stayed with Chicago his entire career while less talented (Michael Barrett) and older (Derrek Lee) teammates he has publicly clashed with have been traded away.  Hernandez first was a hero and later a goat in the World Series, while Zambrano hasn’t made it to the World Series, possibly because of a billy goat.

HOF chances:  Slim but surprisingly not impossible.  In recent years, the Cubs have made a bad habit of relying on talented players with suspect character (Zambrano, Milton Bradley, and Alfonso Soriano).  Just when it seemed Chicago was finally ready to pull the plug on “Z”, the righty returned from an exile to the bullpen to go 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA after the All-Star break.  Now with a new manager who has renewed confidence in him, Zambrano still under 30, could make the mistakes of his 20s a distant memory.  After all, he has a similar WAR and win total to Roy Halladay at the same age.  Who knows maybe Zambrano can put together a few solid, incident free seasons and lead the long suffering Cubs to their first World Series championship in over 100 years.  Yeah, that has about as much chance of happening as a team overcoming a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS to make it to the World Series where they win in a four game sweep to end an 86-year World Championship drought.  Oh wait…

Sources:   www.baseball-reference.com

Taking The High Road Hasn't Helped McGriff (So Far)

McGriff 1987 Topps Traded

           It was a tough year for sluggers from the "Steroid Era" in January's Hall of Fame vote.  First time nominees Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez learned that a failed drug test or an appearance on the Mitchell Report will only result in 11% and 5% of the vote, respectively.  Another first timer, Jeff Bagwell, didn't bring the same failed drug test/Mitchell report baggage, just suspicion and whispers about his body shape.  Whether these whispers are fair or not, Bagwell, once thought to be a possible first ballot Hall of Famer debuted with just 42% of the vote.  Admitting steroid use doesn't help you gain lost votes either as holdover Mark McGwire found out, seeing his vote percentage drop from 24% in 2010 to a new low of 20% in 2011.  It appears the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) are taking the hard line with suspected and proven Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) users.  So how do you explain the lack of support for Fred McGriff, one of the few sluggers from the "Steroid Era" who was not caught up in PED use allegations and never had the “PED user” label?  McGriff, in his second year on the ballot, actually saw his vote percentage drop from 22% to 18%.

             Controversy makes news and the Hall of Fame seems to always be more about who doesn't get in rather than who does get in.  Just as Pete Rose not being on the ballot engulfed the Hall of Fame in controversy in prior decades, now the BBWAA's handling of the sluggers from the "Steroid Era" is the new controversy.  A lot of BBWAA members feel like they are “gatekeepers” protecting the Hall of Fame from suspected and proven PED users.  That's why it is so unfair for a player like Fred McGriff, who seemingly stayed clean and was thus overshadowed by an era of PED users, to once again be overshadowed by these same players when the BBWAA votes for the Hall of Fame.  This year was bad enough but it's only going to be worst when Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Roger Clemens appear on the ballot in 2013.

            McGriff, nicknamed "Crime Dog", started his major league career with five at bats for the 1986 Toronto Blue Jays, debuting the same year as Bonds, McGwire. and Palmeiro.  Of the four, only Bonds played regularly in 1986.  McGriff quickly established himself as one of baseball’s most feared sluggers, hitting between 31 to 37 home runs in the seven-year span from 1988 to the strike-shortened 1994 season and finished each year in the top 4 in home runs in his respective league, leading the AL in 1989 and NL in 1992.  During the same seven-year span, Bonds’ combination of power and speed led the sometimes reluctant writers to overlook his strained relationship with the press and vote him the NL’s MVP in 1990, 1992, and 1993.  Despite hitting home runs with the most frequency of the four, McGwire struggled to follow up his record-setting 49 home run rookie year, experiencing a drop in batting average while also suffering injuries that kept him off the field for extended periods of time during the 1993 and 1994 seasons.  Palmeiro, on the other hand, was finally evolving from a doubles hitter into a home run threat.

Then things started to get silly, first baseball went on strike and then the remainder of the 1994 season along with the World Series was canceled.  When play resumed, the players and their home run totals were growing at impressive and alarming rates.  Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro all enjoyed multiple 40 home run seasons and names such as Sammy Sosa, Ken Caminiti, and Todd Hundley, along with several others, also joined the ranks of players with 40 home run campaigns.  While no longer a perennial MVP candidate and home run leader, McGriff was still a very productive player, averaging 27 HR, 99 RBI, .288 BA, .371 OBP and an adjusted OPS of 122 from 1995 to 2002 before finishing his distinguished career with an injury-riddled one-year tour of duty with the Dodgers (the only season he spent time on the disabled list) and an 81 at bat last hurrah/final stab at 500 home runs the following year with the uncompetitive Devil Rays.

            "Crime Dog" ended his career with 493 home runs and saw a natural decline and occasional rebound in his home run totals over the remainder of his career.  By contrast, his peers Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro’s amount of at bats per home run decreased by almost half for the balance of their careers after the 1994 baseball strike.  Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro rode their impressive seasons to 762, 583, and 569 career home runs, respectively.  Five hundred home runs, once considered to be an almost unreachable goal, was now being surpassed almost yearly.

           

“Myself personally, I would laugh when I’d see these guys hit these long home runs.  I mean, basically, we all came up at the same time and had about the same power.

“But before you knew it, they were hitting 50, 60 and 70 home runs.  I’d just be amazed at how far they were hitting them.”-Fred McGriff in a February 2005 USA Today article written by Bob Nightengale

            McGriff’s Home Run Totals vs. his peers                              

                        86-94              95-on              Career total               

McGriff            262                 231 (95-04)           493                         

Bonds             259                 503 (95-07)           762                

McGwire         238                 345 (95-01)           583                

McGriff 1991 Topps Traded

Palmeiro        155                  414 (95-05)           569                    

McGriff’s AB per HR vs. his peers

                        86-94              95-on              Career total

McGriff            15.2                20.7 (95-04)            17.8

Bonds             17.4                10.6 (95-07)            12.9

McGwire         14.0                  8.2 (95-01)            10.6

Palmeiro         27.8                14.9 (95-05)            18.4

In the following years, many of McGriff’s contemporaries’ names and their home run totals would be called into question as one after another saw their PED use come to light.  McGwire and Palmeiro would both be called before Congress in March 2005 during the investigation of steroids in baseball.  “Big Mac’s” defensive and evasive testimony forever tarnished his image and the ensuing fallout may have ultimately led McGwire to finally admit in 2010 that he had indeed used steroids during his career.  Palmeiro, on the other hand, went on the offensive during the congressional investigation and steadfastly denied ever using steroids only to test positive for the steroid stanozolol later that year.  In addition, if we are to believe what Jose Canseco and others have said, McGwire and Palmeiro’s PED usage had its origins early in their careers and the greater part of their 500-plus home runs are suspect.  Sadly, overshadowed by others’ unreal home run totals, Bonds is alleged to have joined them in PED use to bolster his already impressive home run totals.  Conversely, McGriff seems to have taken the high road, which has saved him from embarrassment and dishonor only to once again be overshadowed by his peers, this time on the Hall of Fame ballot.

            While it appears the Hall of Fame voters are punishing McGwire, Palmeiro, and others for their PED use during the “Steroid Era”, this hasn’t resulted in increased votes for McGriff.  Many voters are quick to commend McGriff as one of the few clean sluggers during the “Steroid Era” yet write off his candidacy and say his statistics don’t quite measure up in the era he played in.  Undoubtedly, “Crime Dog” did play most of his career in a “hitter’s era”, but in the five years before the 1993 expansion draft that ushered in the dawn of the “hitter’s era”, no one in baseball hit more home runs than McGriff who in addition to his power was also one of baseball’s best all around players.  Though McGriff may have benefited from playing in the post-expansion hitter’s era, he also had to face his share of PED using starting pitchers, middle relievers, set up men, and closers so it’s unlikely he gained a very large number of home runs just by playing in this era.

McGriff 1997 Score

            While McGriff didn’t have the automatic Hall of Fame totals like 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, he was hardly a one-dimensional power hitter.  In addition to his 493 career homers, he finished with a .284 BA, .377 OBP, 2,490 hits, 1,550 RBIs, and 134 adjusted OPS.  McGriff was also a very consistent player who hit at least 19 home runs a year from 1987 to 2002, including 30 or more ten times during that stretch.  While not quite Gold Glove caliber in the field, McGriff was the definition of durability, appearing in 2239 games at first base, third all time behind Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Jake Beckley, thus preventing his team from having to use a replacement-level bench player in his place.  In addition, “Crime Dog” made five All Star appearances and was the driving force that led the Braves past the Giants to the 1993 NL West Division title after his trade from the Padres just before the deadline.  Unfortunately, McGriff’s impact on the Braves 1993 Division title win is largely understated since it was the third of fourteen straight for the franchise but he was still their starting first baseman and clean-up hitter two years later when they won their long overdue Championship and was one of the few Atlanta players whose post-season numbers were actually better than his regular season totals (.323 BA, .411 OBP, .992 OPS with 10 HRs and 34 RBIs in 45 games).

 

Foreign substances and cheating have been around throughout the history of baseball but the PEDs of the “Steroid Era” made a mockery of baseball statistics and home run totals like no other substance, whether it be “greenies”, cocaine, or a corked bat.  It is unlikely that many of the suspected and proven PED users of the “Steroid Era” would have perennially hit 40 home runs or came anywhere near surpassing 500 home runs without the assistance of steroids and other PEDs. McGriff’s PED using contemporaries and their unnatural home run totals minimized his statistics and caused his achievements to be overlooked.  While the BBWAA may not be admitting a proven PED user in the Hall of Fame anytime soon, it would be nice to see them take a second look at Fred McGriff’s career.  Almost every player who is deemed worthy enough to be voted into the Hall of Fame has a dominant career peak and for McGriff it’s unfortunate that his career peak of 1988-1994 was overshadowed by the dawn of the “Steroid Era” and its exaggerated home run totals.  “Crime Dog’s” career path seems to be one less traveled and hopefully taking the high road will one day lead to his induction in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

 

A quick look at McGriff’s HR totals vs. the league leaders during his career peak, his place among the leaders during the height of the “Steroid Era”, and a look at how accused and proven PED users affected HR totals

Red donates player was an accused or proven PED user or, in Albert Belle’s case, a corked bat user at some point in their career

Purple donates player was a member of the Colorado Rockies who played at Mile High Stadium or Coors Field, both extreme hitter’s parks where 30 or more home runs seemed to come easily

From 1988 to 1994 McGriff was in the top 4 in home runs for his league:

     88 AL                                            89 AL                                           90 AL

1. Canseco OAK            42         1. McGriff TOR             36         1. Fielder DET                        51

2. McGriff TOR             34         2. Carter CLE                 35         2. McGwire OAK                    39

3. McGwire OAK            32         3. McGwire OAK             33         3. Canseco OAK                    37

4. Murray BAL                 28         4. Jackson KCR             32         4. McGriff TOR                     35

4. Gaetti MIN                   28         5. Esasky BOS               30         5. Gruber TOR                       31

     91 NL                                            92 NL

1. Johnson NYM              38        1. McGriff SDP             35

2. Williams SFG              34        2. Bonds PIT                  34

3. Gant ATL                     32        3. Sheffield SDP            33

4. Dawson CHC              31       4.  Daulton PHI                27

4. McGriff SDP              31       4.  Hollins PHI                  27

PED use was becoming more prevalent at the start of the 1990s but at the time 1993 and 1994 were considered “hitters years” (similar to 1987) and expansion, in addition to the emergence of smaller ballparks, had also helped bring home run totals up.

     93 NL                                           94 NL

1. Bonds SFG                   46      1. Williams SFG              43

2. Justice ATL                   40      2. Bagwell HOU               39

3. Williams SFG               38       3. Bonds SFG                 37

4. McGriff SDP/ATL       37       4. McGriff ATL               34

5. Gant ATL                      36       5. Galarraga COL            31

From 1995 on McGriff, now in his early 30s, starts his natural decline while the league leaders and Rockies sluggers push 40 plus HRs:

     95 NL                                             96 NL                                         97 NL

1. Bichette COL                40         1. Galarraga COL          47        1. Walker COL                     49

2. Sosa      CHC                36        2. Bonds SFG                42        2. Bagwell HOU                    43

2. Walker COL                  36        2. Sheffield FLA              42       3. Galarraga COL                  41

4. Bonds SFG                   33        4. Hundley NYM              41        4. Piazza LAD                       40

5. Castilla COL                 32        5. Castilla COL               40        4. Bonds SFG                       40

5. Piazza LAD                   32        5. Caminiti SDP             40        4. Castilla COL                      40

5. Karros LAD                   32        5. Sosa CHC                  40       

      5. Burks COL                  40

11.McGriff ATL                27       22.McGriff ATL              28        26. McGriff ATL                  22

     98 AL                                             99 AL                                           00 AL

1. Griffey SEA                    56        1. Griffey SEA                48        1. Glaus ANA                         47

2. Belle CHW                     49        2. Palmeiro TEX            47        2. Thomas CHW                   43

3. Canseco TOR               46        3. Delgado TOR            44        2. Giambi OAK                       43

4. Gonzalez TEX               45        3. Ramirez CLE            44         4. Batista TOR                      41

4. Ramirez CLE                45        5. Rodriguez SEA          42        4. Rodriguez SEA                  41

                                                      5. Green TOR                42        4. Justice CLE/NYY                41

                                                                                                         4. Delgado TOR                     41

42.McGriff TBR               19       17.McGriff TBR             32        28.McGriff TBR                    27

In the early 2000s the home run totals get even more ridiculous with most of the leaders eventually being exposed as PED users and joined by many “suspected PED users” with interesting statistical anomalies in their careers.

     01 AL                                             01 NL                                          02 NL

1. Rodriguez TEX              52        1. Bonds SFG                 73        1. Sosa CHC                        49

2. Thome CLE                   49         2. Sosa CHC                  64        2. Bonds SFG                      46

3. Palmeiro TEX                47         3. Gonzalez ARI             57        3. Green LAD                        42

4. Ramirez CLE                 41         4. Green LAD                49        3. Berkman HOU                   42

4. Glaus ANA                     41         4. Helton COL                49        5. Guerrero MON                   39

14.McGriff TBR/CHC      31*       22.McGriff TBR/CHC   31*      14.McGriff CHC                    30

*McGriff’s 31 home runs split between Tampa Bay and Chicago would have ranked him 14^th in the AL and 22^nd in the NL

McGriff 1999 Fleer Ultra Gold Medallion

Sources http://www.baseball-reference.com/ and http://www.baseball-almanac.com/