Bobby Grich Was The Victim of Some Bad Baseball Cards and Some Even Worse Hall of Fame Voting

Bobby Grich 1986 Donruss

Bobby Grich is one of the best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  Grich played from 1970 to 1986, manning second base for the Baltimore Orioles and California Angels.  Grich sported a slick glove, keen batting eye, and better than average pop for a middle infielder.  Grich made six All-Star games, won four Gold Gloves, and at the time of his retirement was one of just a handful of second basemen with over 200 career home runs.  Yet, when he became eligible for the Hall of Fame on the 1992 BBWAA ballot, Grich picked up only 2.6% of the vote--failing to collect the necessary five percent required to appear on future ballots.  Unfortunately, Grich has the dubious honor of being arguably the best player to fail to make it past their first year on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.  As if that wasn't bad enough, Grich also had the misfortune of appearing on two of the most embarrassing baseball cards ever made.

Donruss and Fleer burst onto the baseball card scene in 1981 shaking up the baseball card industry which up until that point had been monopolized by Topps.  For their first three years, Donruss produced plain, relatively cheap looking cards with white bordered designs that changed little from year to year.  Though for 1984 and 1985, Donruss steered away from its boring white border design to produce some radically different, much more exciting cards.  However with their 1986 series, Donruss took a noticeable step backward opting for a bland design featuring light and dark horizontal blue lines.  One of the worst cards of the '86 set is Grich's card in which the placement of the Angels logo is almost as insulting as the 2.6% of the vote he received in his lone appearance on the BBWAA ballot.  Had Donruss just centered the card slightly different then it wouldn't look as if Grich is crapping out the state of California.  (It's a wonder Grich was able to leg out three triples in 1985--I'm sure it wasn't easy to run with the Golden State clogging up his large intestine).  Aside from the shameful layout of the card, Grich's '86 Donruss does showcase one of his key strengths:  his ability to get on base.

Grich was a patient hitter who often finished among the AL leaders in walks and OBP--two stats that were largely overlooked during the era he played in.  In fact, Grich's superb walk totals didn't even make their way onto the back of one of his cards until Topps and Fleer finally decided to include them on their 1981 sets (Donruss would follow suit one year later).  Moreover, no card manufacturer included OBP on the back of their cards until several years after Grich had retired.  However, Grich's sole year on the BBWAA ballot was 1992 and it would be close to another decade before OBP would start to emerge from the shadow of batting average.  There is little doubt that Grich's adequate but unspectacular .266 career batting average played a large part in his inability to gain enough votes to remain on the ballot.  Had voters paid more attention to Grich's excellent .371 career OBP, which more than offset his batting average, the keen eyed second baseman likely would have been a much more serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Good action shots are hard to come by on baseball cards, as most photos are posed shots with a player holding their bat or glove on the field or in front of the dugout or bleachers.  However for Grich's '84 Fleer card, the photographer has captured a Seattle Mariner base runner sliding headfirst into second where Grich is manning his keystone position.  Though due to the nearly obscene tear in Grich's pants, his '84 Fleer card is more comedic than exciting.  And, while it's great that Fleer was able to showcase the fielding aspect of Grich's game on this card, it's pretty ridiculous that they opted to go with this absurd shot of Grich.

Bobby Grich 1984 Fleer

While his '84 Fleer card may be amusing, Grich was an excellent fielder and had a reputation as a hard nosed player who wasn't afraid to get his jersey dirty.  Grich won four Gold Gloves and on at least two or more occasions, led AL second basemen in total zone runs, putouts, assists, fielding percentage, double plays turned, and range factor.  However, Grich's stellar defense was only half of the story as he consistently put up well-above average offensive numbers for a second baseman.  In fact, when Grich retired he only trailed Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby, Bobby Doerr, and eventual Hall of Famers Joe Morgan and Joe Gordon in career home runs by a second baseman.  Moreover, during the strike-shortened '81 season, Grich became the first second baseman since Hornsby in 1925, to lead his respective league in home runs.

While Donruss and Fleer laid him low with their respective '86 and '84 offerings, by contrast the worst thing Topps ever did to Grich was refer to him as "Bob Grich" rather than Bobby Grich on most of their cards.  Topps always seemed to showcase the three most memorable things about Grich:  his respected glove, his underrated bat and of course, his famous mustache.  During Grich's career well-groomed mustaches were very much the style and Hall of Fame peers such as Rollie Fingers, Mike Schmidt, and Goose Gossage sometimes seem like they are remembered as much for their celebrated facial hair as they are for their career exploits.  If Grich ever has any chance of joining these mustached Hall of Famers in Cooperstown, his only current means of getting there would be gaining election through the Expansion Era Committee.

Bobby/Bob Grich 1973, 1976, 1979, 1983 Topps

Under current Hall of Fame voting rules, the Expansion Era Committee meets once every three years to vote on retired players who are no longer eligible for election by the BBWAA, have been retired 21 or more seasons, and made their biggest contributions to the sport after 1972.  In addition to the retired players, retired managers, umpires, and executives from the post-1972 era are also eligible to appear on the Expansion Era ballot.  However, to even make it onto the Expansion Era ballot, a candidate must first be selected by the Historical Overview Committee which reviews the eligible candidates and narrows the candidates down to a final 12-man ballot.

During Grich's career the traditional Triple Crown line of batting average, home runs, and RBI were the three main ways a player's career was evaluated.  And, while his 224 career home runs were excellent for a second baseman, his .266 batting average and 864 RBI just did not stand out to BBWAA Hall of Fame voters back in 1992.  However, since that time sabermetric stats such as OBP, OPS+, and WAR have come to be viewed alongside the traditional Triple Crown stats.  While it is true that Grich's Triple Crown line could be easy for a Hall of Fame voter to overlook, the combination of his excellent .371 OBP, impressive 125 OPS+, and eye-popping 71.0 WAR should make any Hall of Fame voter think twice before passing over the scrappy second baseman.  Yet, when the Historical Overview Committee selected the 2010 Expansion Era ballot they did just that.  The Committee's failure to choose Grich was disappointing since he is one player whose stats on the back of his baseball cards never did his career justice and whose overlooked Hall of Fame candidacy seemed poised to benefit from the emergence of sabermetrics.  Curiously, it would appear that sabermetrics played little of a role in the Committee's choices as the five former hitters selected by the Committee--Dave Concepcion, Ted Simmons, Steve Garvey, Rusty Staub, and Al Oliver--each had Hall of Fame cases that were largely weakened by sabermetrics.  Moreover, when you look past traditional stats and use sabermetric stats to compare Grich's career to those five hitters, he holds a significant edge in several categories including OBP, OPS+, and WAR.

Grich's traditional and sabermetric stats compared to candidates from '10 Expansion Era ballot
	POS	G	H	HR	RBI	BA	AS	MVP	GG
Grich	2B	2008	1833	224	864	0.266	6	0	4
Concepcion	SS	2488	2326	101	950	0.267	9	0	5
Simmons	C	2456	2472	248	1389	0.285	8	0	0
Garvey	1B	2332	2599	272	1308	0.294	10	1	4
Staub	RF	2951	2716	292	1466	0.279	6	0	0
Oliver	CF/1B	2368	2743	219	1326	0.303	7	0	0
	OBP	OPS	OPS+	WAR	oWAR	WAA	Rtot	BB
Grich	0.371	0.794	125	71.0	62.2	43.5	82	1087
Concepcion	0.322	0.679	88	40.0	32.5	8.3	52	736
Simmons	0.348	0.785	118	50.2	53.1	18.9	-34	855
Garvey	0.329	0.775	117	37.6	36.0	6.5	0	479
Staub	0.362	0.793	124	45.8	50.5	7.4	-56	1255
Oliver	0.344	0.795	121	43.2	46.4	11.5	-38	535

Bob Grich and Dave Concepcion 1974 Topps

Of those five hitters who appeared on the Expansion Era ballot, Dave Concepcion came the closest to gaining the 75% required for election on the Expansion Era ballot, picking up 50% of the vote.  Unlike Grich, Concepcion made it past his initial appearance on the BBWAA ballot--albeit just barely with 6.8%--and was able to stay on the ballot for the full 15 eligible years, usually drawing around 11 or 12%, while gaining as much as 16.9% support.  Had Grich made it past his first ballot, it is possible he could have remained on the ballot like Concepcion and probably would have been considered a stronger candidate by the Historical Overview Committee as a result.

Concepcion played a little longer than Grich and was able to retire with over 2,000 career hits, something Grich was not able to do.  Concepcion's ability to reach the 2,000 hit milestone likely played a large role in helping him pick up enough votes to stay on the ballot.  In addition, Concepcion's reputation benefited from several factors that worked in his favor while Grich had many of those same factors work against him:  Concepcion played his whole career for one franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, and was a member of two World Series winners during the team's celebrated "Big Red Machine" days.  By contrast, Grich played for some competitive Orioles and the Angels teams and, while he was an important part of five division winners, he never made it to the Fall Classic.  Likely aided by playing for a more visible team, Concepcion also received more recognition during his career than Grich, winning five Gold Glove Awards to Grich's four and picking up nine All-Star selections to Grich's six.  Concepcion played his career at shortstop, arguably the most difficult and respected position, while Grich plied his trade at second, a physically demanding position but possibly the most underrated one.  Their home ballparks played a role in making their offensive stats look closer than they were as Concepcion played his home games at hitter-friendly Riverfront Stadium, while Grich had the misfortune of playing his home games at the less offense-friendly Anaheim Stadium and Memorial Stadium, a notorious pitcher's park.

If a Hall of Fame voter were to rely solely on traditional statistics, one could argue that Concepcion and Grich were comparable, however viewing their careers sabermetrically, Grich is noticeably stronger than Concepcion in every way.  Grich's OBP-OPS+-WAR line of .371-125-71.0 dwarfs Concepcion's line of .322-88-40.0.  In addition, Concepcion's best season OPS+ wise--116 in the strike shortened '81 campaign--is actually lower than Grich's career average OPS+ of 125.  Also, Grich's worst full season of OPS+--98 in '78 (his only full season below 100)--is actually higher than Concepcion's career average OPS+ of 88.  And, while Concepcion may have picked up five Gold Gloves to Grich's four, by total zone runs Grich edges his NL counterpart 82 to 52 as well.  Moreover in Wins Above Average, Grich's career total of 43.5 is more than five times greater than Concepcion's career WAA mark of 8.3.

Since Grich fell off the BBWAA ballot after the 1992 election the number of second basemen in Cooperstown has grown by a third.  The BBWAA elected Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar, while the various incarnations of the Veterans Committee added Nellie Fox, Bid McPhee, Bill Mazeroski, and Joe Gordon.  Yet, none of those enshrined keystoners can match Grich's career 71.0 WAR, 43.5 WAA, or his 125 OPS+ and only Alomar--who sailed into Cooperstown with 90% on his second ballot--has an OBP as high as Grich's .371 career mark.  Grich's ridiculous '86 Donruss and '84 Fleer cards may have made you chuckle or roll your eyes but the lack of respect he has been shown by the Hall of Fame electorate should make you shake your head.

Grich's traditional and sabermetric stats compared to recent 2B HOF inductees
	G	H	HR	RBI	BA	AS	MVP	GG
Grich	2008	1833	224	864	0.266	6	0	4
Sandberg	2164	2386	282	1061	0.285	10	1	9
Alomar	2379	2724	210	1134	0.300	12	0	10
Fox	2367	2663	35	790	0.288	15*	1	3*
McPhee	2138	2258	53	1072	0.272	0*	0*	0*
Mazeroski	2163	2016	138	853	0.260	10*	0	8*
Gordon	1566	1530	253	975	0.268	9	1	0*
	OBP	OPS	OPS+	WAR	oWAR	WAA	Rtot	BB
Grich	0.371	0.794	125	71.0	62.2	43.5	82	1087
Sandberg	0.344	0.795	114	67.6	59.5	38.1	60	761
Alomar	0.371	0.814	116	66.8	70.0	32.3	-38	1032
Fox	0.348	0.710	93	49.0	36.7	18.4	120	719
McPhee	0.355	0.728	107	52.7	40.1	25.3	154	982
Mazeroski	0.299	0.667	84	36.1	19.0	4.6	147	447
Gordon	0.357	0.822	120	57.1	41.4	37.1	150	759
*-AS Games were first played in '33 and from '59 through '62 two AS games were played
*-MVPs were not awarded during McPhee's career, GG were not awarded until '57

----by John Tuberty

Sources:  Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Play Index, Baseball Hall of Fame

Also read:
Comparing Dwight Evans' OBP, WAR, and OPS+ To Hall of Fame Inductees Of The Last Thirty Years

Why Dwight Evans Is a Much Better Candidate For The Hall of Fame Now Than He Was 15 Years Ago

An Interview With Patrick Languzzi, The Man Behind The Petition To Get Dwight Evans Back On The Hall of Fame Ballot

Tim Hudson, 200 Wins, and The Path To The Hall of Fame

Tim Hudson 2012 Topps Heritage

In previous generations, 300 wins was generally recognized as the milestone a pitcher could reach to assure his place in Cooperstown.  However, in an era with five-man rotations, pitch counts, and specialized bullpens, 300 wins has become a much harder goal to achieve.  Though 300 wins has never been a necessity for Hall of Fame election, 200 wins has always been somewhat of a prerequisite for a hurler to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate.  Only relief pitchers or dominant starters with abbreviated careers, like Sandy Koufax, have been elected without 200 wins.  Barring injury, three pitchers, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Tim Hudson should surpass the 200-win milestone this season.  Halladay is practically a lock for the Hall of Fame and would basically have to pitch his way out of the Hall at this point.  Sabathia's strong performances as the ace of the New York Yankees have put the big left-hander on a likely road toward Cooperstown.  Hudson, on the other hand, is not necessarily seen as being on a path to the Hall of Fame, but the veteran right-hander is in the process of quietly putting together an intriguing Hall of Fame case.

While Halladay and Sabathia have both won Cy Young Awards and become household names as aces of high-profile teams, by comparison, Hudson's impressive career has flown somewhat under the radar.  Yet going into this season, "Huddy's" wins, win/loss percentage, ERA, and innings pitched are almost identical to Halladay's and Sabathia's.  Moreover, based on Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores, the two most similar players to Hudson are Halladay and Sabathia.

	W-L	W/L %	ERA	IP	SO
Hudson	197-104	0.654	3.42	2682.1	1801
Halladay	199-100	0.666	3.31	2687.1	2066
Sabathia	191-102	0.652	3.50	2564.1	2214
	WAR	WAA	ERA+
Hudson	55.7	32.4	126
Halladay	65.9	41.4	134
Sabathia	55.0	30.7	125

Traditional stats like wins and ERA only tell half the story--by using sabermetric stats to judge their careers Halladay stands out in comparison while Hudson holds a slight edge over Sabathia.  However, Sabathia is five years younger than the 37-year old Hudson and one can assume that the Yankee hurler will be pitching several seasons after Hudson retires--although that is certainly not a given as Sabathia has already amassed over 2,500 innings at a relatively young age.  Pitchers with as heavy a workload at Sabathia's age have had mixed levels of success in the latter part of their careers--as for every Tom Seaver who continued to pitch effectively and become a Hall of Famer, there is a Wes Ferrell whose career was basically done after so many innings, or others like Mickey Lolich who were largely ineffective.  Hudson himself had Tommy John surgery and missed the last two months of 2008 and nearly all of 2009, but has come back strong, going 49-26 with a 3.19 ERA in the three full seasons since.  In 2012, Hudson, Halladay, and Sabathia each battled through small injuries that kept them under 30 starts and experienced a degree of drop in performance, with Halladay actually seeing the largest drop of the three.

Tim Hudson 2003 Donruss

"Huddy" did gain his share of notoriety as part of the Oakland Athletics' "Big Three" along with Barry Zito and Mark Mulder, though the pitching trio was always a bit overshadowed by their General Manager Billy Beane as well as MVP winning power hitters Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada.  In his sophomore season, Hudson played a pivotal role in Oakland's 2000 AL West division crown win, going a perfect 7-0 in his final seven starts with a stunning 1.16 ERA and capped it all off with the division clinching win on the last day of the regular season.  In addition, Hudson led the AL with a .769 win/loss percentage, tied David Wells for the league lead with 20 wins, and finished second to Pedro Martinez in the Cy Young Award vote--largely on the strength of those final seven starts.  Two years later, Hudson would play just as important a role in helping the Athletics secure the division crown, going 8-0 with a 1.75 ERA over the last two months of the season--picking up four of those wins during Oakland's memorable 20-game winning streak.  In six excellent seasons with the Athletics, "Huddy" helped the team win three division titles and one Wild Card, going 92-39 with a 3.30 ERA and 136 ERA+.

After the 2004 season, the money-conscious Athletics traded Hudson to the Atlanta Braves--at the time one of baseball's most recognizable franchises.  In his first year in Atlanta, the Braves won their unprecedented 14th-straight NL East division title.  Hudson did his part, finishing '05 with a 14-9 record, a 3.52 ERA, and 121 ERA+.  However, since that time the Braves have failed to win another division title, only making the playoffs in 2010 and 2012 as a Wild Card.  In addition, shortly after Hudson's trade to Atlanta, Time Warner sold the team and TBS stopped solely airing Braves games, costing the team a lot of its national visibility.  Moreover, aside from trading for Hudson, Atlanta's front office has fared poorly as most of the team's acquisitions have been free agent busts such as Derek Lowe or ill-advised trades like the '07 trade deadline deal for Mark Teixeria--whom the franchise gave up Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia to acquire.  Hudson's finest season as a Brave came in 2010 when he went 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and 138 ERA+.  Hudson beat the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies on the last day of the regular season to clinch the '10 Wild Card and ensure that skipper Bobby Cox reached the postseason in his final year.  While it is true that the Braves teams Hudson has played on have had a hard time living up to the "America's Team" glory days of the '90's, the blame does not fall on "Huddy" who has been a leader both on the mound and in the clubhouse for Atlanta, going 105-65 with 3.52 ERA and 118 ERA+ in eight seasons with the franchise.

Tim Hudson 2005 Topps Heritage

In his fourteen years in the majors, Hudson has never had a losing season and his eight seasons of 15 wins or more is tied with Halladay, Sabathia, and Andy Pettitte for the most by an active pitcher.  In addition, the consistent Hudson has had thirteen double-digit win seasons against just three double-digit loss seasons.  Hudson's most difficult year was 2006 when his win/loss percentage was .520 with a 4.86 ERA and 92 ERA+-- by far career worsts for "Huddy" in each of those categories.  Hudson's uncharacteristic '06 season marked the only time in his 14-year career that his win/loss percentage was under .600 and his ERA+ fell below 110.  Aside from '06, the only other season Hudson finished with an ERA north of 4.00 was in 2000, when his ERA was 4.14--yet still good enough for 9th lowest in the offense-heavy AL.  "Huddy's" 197-104 career record gives the right-hander a stellar .654 win/loss percentage.  Barring a late career swoon, Hudson should retire with well over 200 wins and an excellent win/loss percentage of .625 or higher.  While wins and win/loss percentage have become devalued compared to sabermetric stats such as WAR and ERA+, in baseball history, only 18 pitchers have retired with over 200 wins and a win/loss percentage of .625 or higher.  Of those 18 hurlers, 13 are in the Hall of Fame and, of the other five, three (Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, and Pedro Martinez) are likely to be voted in once eligible, one (Bob Caruthers) pitched during the underrated 19th century, and the other (Roger Clemens) would probably already be in the Hall of Fame had he not been linked to PEDs.

In 2012, Hudson completed his age 36 season, according to Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores the two pitchers whose careers are the most similar to Hudson's through age 36 are Kevin Brown and David Cone.  Hudson has more wins and a better win/loss percentage at 36 than both Brown and Cone though most of his other statistics are slightly less impressive.  Like Hudson, both hurlers were in the closing stages of putting together excellent careers that would make for great Hall of Fame debates.  In addition, Brown and Cone were somewhat overshadowed by Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux in much the same way Hudson has been overshadowed by Halladay and Sabathia.  While many of their statistics may be similar, Halladay and Sabathia have received far more recognition during their careers than the underrated Hudson.

	W-L	W/L %	ERA	IP	SO
Hudson age 36	197-104	0.654	3.42	2682.1	1801
Brown age 36	180-118	0.604	3.18	2776.1	2021
Cone age 36	180-102	0.638	3.19	2590.0	2420
Brown career	211-144	0.594	3.28	3256.1	2397
Cone career	194-126	0.606	3.46	2898.2	2668
	WAR	WAA	ERA+
Hudson age 36	55.7	32.4	126
Brown age 36	61.7	37.7	130
Cone age 36	61.7	38.5	129
Brown career	68.5	40.3	127
Cone career	62.6	36.4	121

Unfortunately, Brown and Cone both struggled after their age 36 season and neither made it past their first year on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, as they both failed to pick up the five percent of the vote required to appear on future ballots.  Brown pitched for four more years after his age 36 season but battled injuries and ineffectiveness, retiring on a sour note after two tumultuous seasons with the New York Yankees which included an embarrassing loss to the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS.  Going into his age 37 season, Cone was coming off a memorable '99 campaign which included a perfect game in July, followed by a rocky ending to the regular season, and concluded with a spectacular postseason where Cone won his fourth World Series ring.  Shockingly, Cone would completely fall apart in 2000, going 4-14 with an unfathomable 6.91 ERA and 70 ERA+.  For 2001, Cone signed with the Boston Red Sox and rebounded to have a so-so year, at the end of which he retired, only to stage an ill-fated 18 inning comeback in 2003 for the Mets.  Cone finished his career with a 194-126 record, 3.46 ERA, 121 ERA+, and 62.6 WAR.  Even though Cone retired with strong sabermetric stats, his inability to reach 200 wins likely doomed his Hall of Fame chances.  Brown, on the other hand, was able to surpass 200 wins, retiring with a 211-144 career record, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, and 68.5 WAR.  However, Brown's appearance in the Mitchell Report for purchasing human growth hormone and Deca-Durabolin from Kirk Radomski cost his borderline Hall of Fame candidacy fair judgment.  While Brown and Cone are ineligible to appear on future BBWAA Hall of Fame ballots, their Hall of Fame candidacies could get a second chance when they become eligible for the Veterans Committee, which judges the careers of failed BBWAA candidates that have been retired 21 or more years with peers from the same era.

Reaching 200 wins represents an important step for Hudson to be viewed as a serious Hall of Fame candidate.  However, Hudson must avoid the pitfalls that befell Brown and Cone in the final years of their careers and continue to pitch effectively into his late thirties to have a realistic shot at Hall of Fame election through the BBWAA.  Otherwise, like Brown and Cone, "Huddy's" time on the BBWAA ballot will be brief and his Hall of Fame candidacy will fall into the hands of the Veterans Committee.  Nevertheless, with 49 wins in his three full seasons since Tommy John surgery, the possibility of Hudson winning over 250 games is not out of the question and if the right-hander is able to pitch well and remain a consistent winner then the path to the Hall of Fame will become much clearer.

----by John Tuberty

Sources:  Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Play Index, Mitchell Report

Also read:
Comparing Dwight Evans' OBP, WAR, and OPS+ To Hall of Fame Inductees Of The Last Thirty Years

Why Dwight Evans Is a Much Better Candidate For The Hall of Fame Now Than He Was 15 Years Ago

An Interview With Patrick Languzzi, The Man Behind The Petition To Get Dwight Evans Back On The Hall of Fame Ballot