 |
| Whitaker, Grich & Evans were overlooked for the Modern Baseball Era ballot |
On December 10, the Modern Baseball Era Committee completed
their first election, voting Jack Morris and Alan Trammell into the Baseball
Hall of Fame. The Modern Baseball Era is
one of four sub-committees of the Era Committee. Each of these sub-committees are tasked with
evaluating candidates from a specified era with the Modern Baseball Era
Committee in charge of the 1970 to 1987 time period. Under the previous Era Committee format, the
majority of candidates from this time period were included in a sub-committee
known as the Expansion Era which covered the timeframe of 1973-onward. Each Era Committee ballot is screened and
selected by the Historical Overview Committee--a small BBWAA-appointed panel,
generally consisting of 11 representatives.
The Modern Baseball Era Committee election generated its fair share of
controversy, as did the ballot itself in which several strong candidates who
have become causes célèbre for the sabermetric community--namely Lou Whitaker,
Bobby Grich, and Dwight Evans--were overlooked by the Historical Overview
Committee. The Modern Baseball Era
Committee holds elections twice every five years. Thus, the Historical Overview Committee will
release its next three ballots for the Modern Baseball Era in Fall 2019, 2022,
and 2024. The selections for the recent
Modern Baseball Era ballot as well as those for previous Era Committee ballots
give insights into the preferences, tendencies, and patterns of the Historical
Overview Committee. By examining the
practices of the Historical Overview Committee, a better idea is gained of the
obstacles Whitaker, Grich, and Evans face to be selected by the screening panel
to appear on future Modern Baseball Era ballots.
--The Historical
Overview Committee is and will continue to be a constant in the screening and
selecting of Era Committee ballots--
The Historical Overview Committee which put together the
Modern Baseball Era ballot was made up of 11 veteran BBWAA members: Bob Elliott (formerly Toronto Sun); Jim Henneman (formerly Baltimore Sun); Rick Hummel (St.
Louis Post-Dispatch); Steve Hirdt (Elias
Sports Bureau); Bill Madden (formerly New
York Daily News); Jack O’Connell (BBWAA secretary-treasurer); Jim Reeves
(formerly Fort Worth Star-Telegram);
Tracy Ringolsby (MLB.com); Glenn Schwarz (formerly San Francisco Chronicle); Dave van Dyck
(formerly Chicago Tribune); and Mark
Whicker (Los Angeles News Group).
The Historical Overview Committee has acted as the screening
panel for the Era Committee and its predecessor, the Veterans Committee for
nearly 15 years. During that time there
have been many changes to the Veterans and Era Committee process. However, the make-up of the Historical
Overview Committee has virtual stayed the same with committee members Elliott,
Hummel, Hirdt, Madden, O'Connell, Ringolsby, Whicker, and van Dyck taking part
in the selection of almost every Era Committee ballot. Overall, just 15 members have served on this
exclusive screening panel which is and will continue to be a constant in the
selection of Era Committee ballots.
--The Historical Overview
Committee has a strong preference for candidates who lasted the maximum number
of years on the BBWAA ballot--
Below are the Historical Overview Committee's selections for
the recent Modern Baseball Era as well as the 2010 and 2013 Expansion Era
ballots. Candidates who lasted their
full term in BBWAA voting are highlighted in red. Final vote percentages by the Modern Baseball
Era and Expansion Era Committees are listed next to the candidate with those
who reached the 75% of the vote required for election italicized.
|
Dec '10
|
Dec '13
|
Dec '17
|
|||||
|
Exp Era
|
Vote
%
|
Exp Era
|
Vote
%
|
MB Era
|
Vote
%
|
||
|
Gillick
|
81.3%
|
Cox
|
100%
|
Morris
|
87.5%
|
||
|
Miller
|
68.8%
|
LaRussa
|
100%
|
Trammell
|
81.3%
|
||
|
Concepcion
|
50.0%
|
Torre
|
100%
|
Simmons
|
68.8%
|
||
|
Blue
|
<50.0%
|
Concepcion
|
<43.8%
|
Miller
|
43.8%
|
||
|
Garvey
|
<50.0%
|
Garvey
|
<43.8%
|
Garvey
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
Guidry
|
<50.0%
|
John
|
<43.8%
|
John
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
John
|
<50.0%
|
Martin
|
<43.8%
|
Mattingly
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
Martin
|
<50.0%
|
Miller
|
<43.8%
|
Murphy
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
Oliver
|
<50.0%
|
Parker
|
<43.8%
|
Parker
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
Simmons
|
<50.0%
|
Quisenberry
|
<43.8%
|
Tiant
|
<43.8%
|
||
|
Staub
|
<50.0%
|
Simmons
|
<43.8%
|
||||
|
Steinbrenner
|
<50.0%
|
Steinbrenner
|
<43.8%
|
As a BBWAA-appointed entity which is made up of longtime
BBWAA members--or veteran historians as the Hall of Fame prefers to describe
them--it is no surprise that the Historical Overview Committee shows a strong
preference for candidates who lasted the maximum number of years on the BBWAA
ballot. In fact, with almost every
opportunity the Historical Overview Committee has selected candidates who
completed their full term on the BBWAA ballot--choosing Steve Garvey, Tommy John, and Dave Parker for each Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballot they were
eligible for. In addition, first time
eligible candidates Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, and Alan Trammell
made the initial Modern Baseball Era ballot.
Moreover, with the restructuring of the sub-committees' timeframes, Luis Tiant--who had previously appeared on both Golden Era ballots--became eligible
and was chosen for the Modern Baseball Era ballot. Also, Dave Concepcion was selected for both
Expansion Era ballots before missing out on the Modern Baseball Era ballot.
In stark contrast to those candidates who drew well in BBWAA
voting, popular candidates such as Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Dwight Evans
have found themselves overlooked by the Historical Overview Committee despite
strong Hall of Fame cases:
 |
| Whitaker, Grich & Evans were each strong all-around players |
Whitaker played from 1977 to 1995, spending his entire career
with the Detroit Tigers. With 244 career
home runs, "Sweet Lou" possessed power rarely seen by a second
baseman during the era in which he played and also showed patience at the plate
with an impressive .363 career OBP. Whitaker
was a solid player on both sides of the diamond, picking up three Gold Glove
Awards for his defense at the keystone. Along
with Trammell at shortstop, Whitaker formed the longest running and one of the
most dominant double play combinations in the history of the game. Despite these accomplishments, Whitaker
collected just 2.9% of the vote in his initial appearance on the BBWAA ballot
in 2001. Because he failed to garner at
least 5% of the vote, Whitaker was thus ineligible to be included on future
BBWAA ballots. The recent Modern
Baseball Era ballot represented Whitaker's first chance at the Hall of Fame
since falling off the BBWAA ballot. However,
to the surprise of many, when the Historical Overview Committee's selections
were released, Whitaker's name was not included on the ballot alongside former
teammates Morris and Trammell.
Grich's career ran from 1970 to 1986, splitting time between
the Baltimore Orioles and the California Angels. Similar to Whitaker, Grich was a
slick-gloved, power-hitting second baseman with a keen batting-eye. Grich won four Gold Glove Awards and set the
single-season fielding percentage record for second basemen on two separate
occasions during his career. In 1981,
Grich became the first keystoner since Rogers Hornsby in 1925 to lead his respective
league in home runs. Moreover, at the
time of his retirement, Grich was one of just a handful of sluggers to
play the bulk of his career at second base and hit over 200 home
runs. In addition, Grich proved to be
one of his era's toughest outs, reaching base at a stellar .371 clip. Nevertheless, Grich drew just 2.6% of the
vote in what would be his only appearance on the BBWAA ballot in 1992. Grich has been eligible for all three
Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballots but has yet to be selected by the
Historical Overview Committee.
Evans was active from 1972 to 1991, with each of those
seasons coming in a Boston Red Sox uniform--save for his final campaign in which
he played for the Orioles. Like Whitaker
and Grich, "Dewey" was a great all-around player with superb on-base
skills. Well known for his cannon-like
throwing arm, Evans was awarded eight Gold Gloves in right field and retired
just shy of 2,500 hits and 400 home runs.
In addition, with his knowledge of the strike zone, Evans was a
difficult player to get out, as underscored by his fabulous .370 career
OBP. Evans lasted three years on the
BBWAA ballot, debuting with 5.9% of the vote in 1997 and peaking at 10.4% the
following year, before falling below 5% on the crowded 1999 ballot in which
Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, and Carlton Fisk debuted. Evans was eligible for the second Expansion
Era and initial Modern Baseball Era ballots but on neither occasion was his
name among the screening panel's selections.
The passing over of Whitaker, Grich, and Evans by the Historical
Overview Committee is almost certainly due to the lack of support picked up by
these candidate in their brief time on the BBWAA ballot, as evidenced by the
screening panel's repeated selections of candidates who lasted the maximum
number of years on the writer's vote. Indeed,
for the recent Modern Baseball Era ballot, the Historical Overview Committee
not only chose all four newly eligible candidates whose Hall of Fame cases went
the distance on the BBWAA ballot (Mattingly, Morris, Murphy, and Trammell) but
also selected Parker for a second straight ballot and Garvey, John, and Tiant
for a third consecutive time despite none of those four holdover candidates
coming anywhere close to election on their previous appearances.
The absences of Grich and Evans from the Modern Baseball Era
ballot each drew criticism of the Historical Overview Committee, but the
exclusion of Whitaker was met with the most disapproval, as Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe and Lynn
Henning of The Detroit News were
among those who took the screening panel to task for not including "Sweet
Lou" on the ballot. Jaffe said
Whitaker's omission from the ballot "seems like a cruel joke" while
Henning remarked that the former Tigers second baseman's exclusion "makes
no sense."
 |
| Simmons missed HOF election by one vote in Dec |
The only candidate to be a regular selection by the
Historical Overview Committee who did not perform well in BBWAA voting is Ted Simmons. Despite being one of the finest
hitting catchers of all-time, Simmons suffered the same fate as Whitaker and
Grich as he fell off the BBWAA ballot after accumulating just 3.7% of the vote
in his one and only appearance in 1994. Nevertheless,
the screening panel selected Simmons for both Expansion Era ballots and even
after failing to pick up much support in those elections, he was chosen once
again for the Modern Baseball Era ballot.
However, Simmons' continued presence on the ballot is likely owed to the
lobbying of Historical Overview Committee member Rick Hummel, who writes for
the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. When asked by a reader about Simmons' chances
at Hall of Fame election last January, Hummel gave a candid answer that gives
an insight into the inner-workings of the Historical Overview Committee, who
seem to have humored Hummel by tabbing Simmons for the ballot:
"I'm headed to Cooperstown tomorrow for a special
committee meeting to put together the veterans' ballots for the next two
elections. My passionate pleas to
include Simmons never have failed to amuse my compatriots and I will raise the
flag again this year. He almost
certainly will turn up on another ballot."
Unlike the Historical Overview Committee, the 16-member
electorate for the Era Committee vote changes drastically for each election as
a different panel of Hall of Fame players, Hall of Fame managers, executives,
and veteran BBWAA members are selected to make up the voting body. After drawing poorly on both Expansion Era
elections, it seemed that Simmons would be a throwaway candidate on the Modern
Baseball Era ballot with even his most ardent supporter Hummel not holding his
breath:
..."Where the rub comes is that when the voters in
December ask how many ballots Simmons lasted in the regular BBWAA elections,
the answer sadly, unbelievably, is one. He
didn't receive five percent of the vote in his first (only) year on the
ballot. The veterans' voters, then
speaking to any BBWAA members on the committee, say, "Well, you must not
have liked him very much."...
..."He probably will not get in. But I will go down trying."
However, in a surprising twist, Simmons drew the third
highest vote total on the Modern Baseball Era ballot and came just a single
tally shy of Hall of Fame election. Simmons'
unexpectedly strong showing is encouraging for candidates such as Whitaker,
Grich, and Evans who struggled in their brief time on the BBWAA ballot.
While it is likely the Historical Overview Committee will
continue to favor candidates who lasted the maximum number of years on the
BBWAA ballot, it may finally begin to turn its attention toward overlooked
candidates such as Whitaker, Grich, and Evans and select them in place of
Garvey, John, Parker, and Tiant who have each appeared on two or three ballots
but garnered little support on the ensuing elections. In addition, with the Modern Baseball Era
fixed at the 1970-1987 timeline, Whitaker, Grich, and Evans will have a better
chance of eventually being included on the ballot since no candidates who
completed their full term on the writer's vote will become newly eligible. This is in contrast to the Modern Baseball
Era's predecessor, the Expansion Era, which had a new slate of candidates
became eligible for the ballot every three years. Moreover, the elections of Morris and
Trammell also clear up two ballot spaces.
--Advanced
metrics have been and continue to be a slow sell to the Historical Overview
Committee--
Below are the career WAR marks for the Historical Overview
Committee's position players selected for the Expansion/Modern Baseball Era
ballots along with the totals of Whitaker, Grich, and Evans for the ballots which
they were eligible for. WAR marks vary
ballot to ballot due to changes in Baseball Reference's WAR formula over time:
|
Dec '10
|
Dec '13
|
Dec '17
|
|||||
|
Exp Era
|
WAR
|
Exp Era
|
WAR
|
MB Era
|
WAR
|
||
|
Simmons
|
50.8
|
Simmons
|
50.2
|
Trammell
|
70.4
|
||
|
Staub
|
45.0
|
Concepcion
|
40.0
|
Simmons
|
50.1
|
||
|
Oliver
|
38.7
|
Parker
|
40.0
|
Murphy
|
46.2
|
||
|
Garvey
|
35.9
|
Garvey
|
37.6
|
Mattingly
|
42.2
|
||
|
Concepcion
|
33.8
|
Parker
|
39.9
|
||||
|
Garvey
|
37.7
|
||||||
|
Grich
|
67.6
|
Grich
|
71.0
|
Whitaker
|
74.9
|
||
|
Evans
|
66.7
|
Grich
|
70.9
|
||||
|
Evans
|
66.9
|
In the decade and half since Whitaker, Grich, and Evans fell
off the BBWAA ballot, their Hall of Fame cases have become causes célèbre for
the sabermetric community. Also during
that time, advanced metrics such as WAR have revolutionized the way players are
evaluated while overlooked statistics like walks and OBP have come to the
forefront to be viewed alongside hits and batting average. However, despite their growing acceptance,
advanced metrics continue to be a slow sell to the Historical Overview Committee
as evidenced by their overvaluing traditional stats such as home runs, RBI, and
batting average.
 |
| Whitaker, Grich & Evans each have excellent sabermetric HOF cases |
Advanced metrics have existed for several decades but they
did not start to become mainstream until 2010 when Baseball Reference included
WAR on their website. Part of what made
the exclusion of Whitaker, Grich, and Evans from the Modern Baseball Era ballot
so egregious was their respective career WAR marks of 74.9, 70.9, and
66.9--which rank them number one, two, and four among position players eligible
for the ballot. The Historical Overview
Committee can somewhat be forgiven for overlooking Grich for the initial
Expansion Era ballot since WAR and other advanced metrics were just starting to
become widely used. However, today a
growing percentage of BBWAA voters reference WAR and other advanced metrics
when explaining their Hall of Fame selections.
The Historical Overview Committee's slow acceptance of
advanced metrics can best be exemplified by comments made by one of the
screening panel's most recognizable members, Bill Madden, during his guest
appearance on the MLB Network's Hot Stove
in January 2016. When discussing his
voting philosophy for the Hall of Fame, Madden immediately downplayed advanced
metrics: "Well as far as evaluating
the candidates, I have one stance and I've always had from day one from my
first time got a ballot and it has nothing to do with metrics and all this
other stuff. My criteria is number one,
if I'm looking at a ball player on the field for years and years or whatever--do
I say to myself: Am I looking at a Hall
of Famer? Because it's the look test for
me." Later on in the interview
Madden dropped a couple of infamous Hall of Fame clichés, "If I have to
think about him, he probably isn't" and "I'm not interested in the
Hall of Very Good or these borderline guys.
I'm just...I'm not gonna vote for them."
Not to single out or pick on Madden but he is probably the
most visable and vocal member of the Historical Overview Committee and his
words obviously carry weight within the small screening panel. Madden obviously uses an old school approach
to evaluate candidates, is largely close-minded to advanced metrics, and
admittedly is a tougher voter who believes in a smaller Hall of Fame--a
combination that does not make him an ally to potential Era Committee
candidates looking for a second chance at being voted into Cooperstown who were
overlooked on past BBWAA ballots. While
Madden's viewpoints do not necessarily reflect the views of all Historical
Overview Committee members, it is fair to say that most of the screening
panel share his sentiments on advanced metrics as causes célèbre
sabermetric candidates Whitaker, Grich, and Evans have been repeatedly passed
over for candidates like Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, and Dave Parker,
whose Hall of Fame cases are much weaker when viewed through the lens of
advanced metrics.
Nevertheless, the Hall of Fame cases of Whitaker,
Grich, and Evans do not solely rely on advanced metrics or their excellent
career WAR marks as each own strong career numbers in traditional categories as
well. With career totals of 2,369 hits
and 244 home runs, Whitaker is the only retired second baseman, aside from Jeff
Kent, to reach both the 2,000-hit and 200-home run milestones and not be voted
into Cooperstown. Like Whitaker, Grich's
power stood out among second sackers with 224 career longballs, though he also
spent several of his prime years playing his home games in Baltimore's
pitcher-friendly Memorial Stadium during a particularly difficult era for
hitters. Evans put up solid career
numbers for a right fielder with 2,446 hits and 385 round trippers. Though Evans retired just shy of the
2,500-hit and 400-home run milestones--a combination of totals which likely
would have guaranteed him eventual election to the Hall of Fame--he is the only
slugger eligible for the Modern Baseball Era to come close to reaching both
totals. In addition, Whitaker, Grich,
and Evans were each great all around players who contributed to their teams not
only with their offense but also their Gold Glove-winning defense.
Undoubtedly, the Hall of Fame cases of Whitaker, Grich, and
Evans are each hindered by their adequate but unspectacular respective batting
averages of .276, .266, and .272 which played a significant role in their
struggling to draw support on the BBWAA ballot.
However, due to their ability to draw walks, Whitaker, Grich, and Evans
more than offset their batting averages with excellent career OBP marks of
.363, .371, and .370, respectively. Yet
the combination of the Historical Overview Committee's overvaluing of batting
average and past BBWAA ballot election results, coupled with their slow
acceptance of advanced metrics kept Whitaker, Grich, and Evans from being
selected for the Modern Baseball Era ballot.
--Players who
specialized at the same position are rarely selected on the same ballot by the
Historical Overview Committee--
One of the tendencies the Historical Overview Committee has
shown when putting together the Expansion and Modern Baseball Era ballots is a
reluctance to select players who specialized at the same position on the same
ballot. Through three Expansion/Modern
Baseball Era ballots, there has been just one position player overlap--first
basemen Steve Garvey and Don Mattingly appeared together on the recent Modern
Baseball Era ballot. In the five ballots
the Historical Overview Committee has selected for the other Era Committees,
position player overlaps have been a little more common: Third basemen Ron Santo and Ken Boyer were
each selected for the first Golden Era ballot while first basemen Gil Hodges
and Dick Allen both got the nod for the second Golden Era ballot. None of those Golden Era selections were
overly surprising since each spent the maximum number of years on the BBWAA
ballot. Shortstops Bill Dahlen and Marty
Marion each appeared on both Pre-Integration Era ballots. However, while these two shortstops played
the same position, their career peaks were several decades apart--Dahlen was a
turn of 20th century star while Marion played during the 1940s and early
1950s. In addition, Hodges' and Allen's
careers took place on opposite ends of the Golden Era epoch and did not
overlap. First basemen Mark McGwire and
Will Clark were each selected for the initial Today's Game Era ballot but that
era also has the shortest time period to pull player candidates from.
Overall though, having two players who specialized at the
same position on the same ballot is not a regular occurrence on Era Committee
ballots and there have never been multiple position player overlaps on one
ballot. The reluctance to have two
position player overlaps has had no bearing on the overlooking of Whitaker and
Grich but is probably some of the reason Evans has been selected for the ballot
thus far and likely played a role in the exclusions of other strong bypassed
candidates such as Thurman Munson and Keith Hernandez. Below are the main candidates at each
position who have been selected and passed over by the Historical Overview
Committee for the Expansion and Modern Baseball Era ballots:
Catcher
December 2010 Expansion Era: Ted Simmons
December 2013 Expansion Era: Ted Simmons
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Ted Simmons
Ted Simmons has appeared on each of the three
Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballots and thus far has been the only catcher
selected by the Historical Overview Committee for this particular era. Thurman Munson has been eligible for all
three Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballots but has yet to be chosen by the
screening panel even though his Hall of Fame candidacy lasted the maximum
number of years on the BBWAA ballot. The
selection of Simmons and overlooking of Munson is somewhat surprising since
Simmons fell off the BBWAA ballot after just one year while Munson is one of
the few candidates who went the distance on the writer's vote who has not been
tabbed for one of the Era ballots. Regardless,
three times the screening committee has listened to the pleas of committee
member Rick Hummel and chosen Simmons for the ballot--a trend that will almost
certainly continue since "Simba" missed Hall of Fame election by a
single tally on the most recent Modern Baseball Era vote. Because the Historical Overview Committee
rarely puts players who specialized at the same position on the same ballot,
Munson will not likely appear on the ballot until Simmons is elected to
Cooperstown.
First Base
December 2010 Expansion Era: Steve Garvey
December 2013 Expansion Era: Steve Garvey
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Steve Garvey & Don
Mattingly
Like Simmons, Steve Garvey has been selected for all three
Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballots. Garvey
appeared on the maximum number of BBWAA ballots with a peak vote total of 42.6%
which was the highest percentage among eligible candidates for both Expansion
Era ballots and trailed only Jack Morris' 67.7% among eligible Modern Baseball
Era candidates. Don Mattingly, whose
Hall of Fame candidacy also went the distance on the BBWAA ballot, became
eligible for and was chosen for the Modern Baseball Era ballot. Mattingly amassed 28.2% of the vote in his
first year on the BBWAA ballot but struggled to draw more than half that total
in his remaining years on the ballot. Due
to the Historical Overview Committee's preference for candidates who completed
their full term on the BBWAA ballot, having two first basemen on the same
ballot was not unprecedented, though it was surprising the screening panel
selected Garvey for a third consecutive time after he received little support
in the two previous elections.
Keith Hernandez stands out as one of the main exclusions
from the Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballots by the Historical Overview
Committee. Hernandez is widely regarded
as the greatest defensive first basemen in the history of baseball and his 11
Gold Glove Awards are the most for anyone at the position. Hernandez was co-winner of the 1979 NL MVP,
has strong career numbers as well as a solid career WAR of 60.0. Moreover, with his memorable appearances on Seinfeld, and his Just for Men
commercials, along with his analyst work for the Mets and during the World
Series, Hernandez has more mainstream name recognition and fame than any
eligible Modern Baseball Era candidate. Yet
despite all this, Hernandez was passed over for both the second Expansion Era
and initial Modern Baseball Era ballot. Hernandez
spent nine years on the BBWAA ballot, topping out at 10.8%. After appearing on all three Expansion/Modern
Baseball Era ballots but drawing little support, the Historical Overview
Committee may pass on selecting Garvey for the next ballot. However, with the screening committee's
strong preference for candidates who lasted the maximum number of years of the
BBWAA ballot, it is likely Mattingly will be appear on the next ballot which
may result in Hernandez being bypassed once again.
Second Base
The Historical Overview Committee has yet to select a second
basemen for the Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballot but with the
elections of Jack Morris and Alan Trammell, attention now turns to their
longtime Detroit Tigers teammate, Lou Whitaker.
If "Sweet Lou" makes the 2019 Modern Baseball Era ballot and
happens to get elected, it could then shift the focus towards his keystone peer
Bobby Grich, who like Whitaker, was a strong all-around player with solid
on-base skills. Unfortunately for Grich,
due to the unlikeliness of the screening panel selecting two second basemen on
the same ballot he will likely have to wait until Whitaker is elected
before his Hall of Fame case gets its long overdue second chance.
Shortstop
December 2010 Expansion Era: Dave Concepcion
December 2013 Expansion Era: Dave Concepcion
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Alan Trammell
Dave Concepcion was selected for each of the Expansion Era
ballots. Concepcion spent the maximum
number of years on the BBWAA ballot, topping out at 16.9% of the vote. After completing his full term on the BBWAA
ballot and peaking at 40.9%, Trammell became eligible for and was chosen for
the Modern Baseball Era ballot while Concepcion was passed over. Concepcion's absence from the recent ballot
was notable since he was the only player candidate to amass 50% of the vote on
either of the two previous ballots, having picked up 8 of a possible 16 tallies
on the December 2010 Expansion Era election.
The exclusion of Concepcion best exemplifies the Historical
Overview Committee's reluctance to have two players who specialized at the same
position on the same ballot. With
Trammell becoming eligible, it appears the screening panel saw fit to only have
one shortstop on the ballot. It is worth
noting that Concepcion struggled in his second appearance on the Expansion Era
ballot in 2013. However, the presence of
Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa, and Joe Torre on that ballot--who were each
unanimously elected--made the rest of the candidates an afterthought as the
other candidate's support including Concepcion's were listed as "six or
fewer votes."
Third Base
The Historical Overview Committee has yet to tab anyone from
the hot corner, passing over both Graig Nettles and Buddy Bell, who rank third
and fifth highest in career WAR among position players eligible for the Modern
Baseball Era ballot at 68.0 and 66.1, respectively. However, Nettles' and Bell's Hall of Fame
cases have never garnered the level of support from the sabermetric community that
Whitaker's, Grich's, and Evans' have due to a greater amount of their value
coming from advanced defensive metrics which are considered less trustworthy
than offensive metrics.
Left Field
Like second and third base, the Historical Overview
Committee has completely overlooked the position of left field on the Expansion/Modern
Baseball Era ballots. However, none of
the left fielders from this era performed well in BBWAA voting or have a
particularly strong Hall of Fame case by traditional or sabermetric
statistics. George Foster drew the most
BBWAA Hall of Fame support, lasting four ballots and topping out at 6.9%. Jose Cruz has the highest WAR at 54.2, a
decent enough mark but well behind other overlooked candidates from the era.
Center Field
December 2010 Expansion Era: Al Oliver
December 2013 Expansion Era: no center fielder
selected
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Dale Murphy
Al Oliver was selected for the initial Expansion Era ballot.
No center fielder appeared on the second Expansion Era ballot. Two-time NL MVP Dale Murphy became eligible
for the initial Modern Baseball Era ballot and was tabbed by the Historical
Overview Committee. The selection of
Murphy for the ballot was no surprise since he collected as much as 23.2% of
the vote and lasted the maximum number of years on the BBWAA ballot while
Oliver garnered just 4.3% in his lone year being judged by the writers. As the only center fielder whose Hall of Fame
case rode out its full term on the BBWAA ballot, it is almost a certainty
Murphy will make the next Modern Baseball Era ballot. Oliver spent the bulk of his career as an
outfielder with 840 games at center and 486 in left while also spending ample
time as a first baseman in 733 games so he is not necessarily identified by one
defensive position. However, with Murphy
occupying the center fielder slot and several strong first base candidates, it
is unlikely Oliver will make another ballot.
Right Field
December 2010 Expansion Era: Rusty Staub
December 2013 Expansion Era: Dave Parker
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Dave Parker
 |
| Evans seems to be in line behind fellow RFer Parker to make the Era ballot |
Rusty Staub was selected for the initial Expansion Era
ballot. Staub appeared on seven BBWAA
ballots but his support never rose above 7.9%.
Dave Parker became eligible for the second Expansion Era ballot and was
the sole right fielder chosen for that ballot as well as the recent Modern
Baseball Era slate. Parker made the
maximum number of appearances on the BBWAA ballot but after peaking with 24.5%
of the vote in his second year, his Hall of Fame candidacy stalled and he
generally gathered between 10 to 15% for the remainder of his time on the
ballot. Due to the Historical Overview
Committee's preference for candidates who rode out their full term on the BBWAA
ballot, it was almost a given that Parker would be selected. Like Parker, Dwight Evans became eligible for
the second Expansion Era ballot but since "Dewey" only lasted three
BBWAA ballots with a high of 10.4%, he seems to be in line behind
"Cobra" to make the ballot. However,
after Parker failed to make any headway with the electorate in his two
appearances on the ballot, the screening panel may decide to select Evans
instead of or in addition to "Cobra" the next time around.
--The sharing of
limited ballot space between player and non-player candidates and the balancing
of the ballot between position player and pitcher candidates--
With just ten candidates selected by the Historical Overview
Committee for the Modern Baseball Era ballot, each spot on the ballot is at a
premium. While the Era Committee ballots
provide another opportunity for player candidates who are no longer eligible
for the BBWAA ballot, it also represents the only avenue for non-player
candidates such as executives, managers, umpires, and pioneers to gain entry
into Cooperstown. Moreover, to balance
the ballot between position player and pitcher candidates the Historical
Overview Committee generally selects two or three hurlers for each ballot. By having player and non-player candidates
share the Era Committee ballot as well as the balancing of position player and
pitcher candidates, it has created a backlog of overlooked candidates--which
includes Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Dwight Evans--who have yet to appear on
the Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballot.
Below is the make-up of candidates for each Expansion/Modern
Baseball Era ballot:
December 2010 Expansion Era ballot: 5 position
players, 3 pitchers, 4 non-players
December 2013 Expansion Era ballot: 4 position
players, 2 pitchers, 6 non-players
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era ballot: 6 position players, 3
pitchers, 1 non-players
Prior to the restructuring of the Era Committee time
periods, the Expansion Era used a twelve-candidate ballot instead of the
standard ten used by the other sub-committees.
A possible reason for this may have been because the era covered
everything from 1973-onwards and had three years' worth new of candidates become
eligible for each ballot. For the
Expansion Era ballots, eligible player candidates were in the
unenviable position of contending for spots on the ballot with first-time
eligible non-player candidates who in some cases had retired barely two years
before or were still active in some capacity.
Indeed, non-player candidates made up a large portion of each of the Expansion
Era ballots, thus leaving little room for player candidates. As a result, many strong player
candidates--including Grich and Evans, who did not last the maximum number of
years of the BBWAA--were passed over by the Historical Overview Committee. However, with the revamping of the Era
Committee time periods, newly eligible non-player candidates now fall into the
Today's Game Era's post-1987 timeframe while only non-players from the
1970-1987 timeline appear on the Modern Baseball Era ballot.
 |
| Miller drew 43.8% of the vote in December's election |
Fortunately for Whitaker, Grich, and Evans, non-player
candidates are unlikely to occupy a large portion of the Modern Baseball Era's
ballot the way they did the Expansion Era, as it appears that with the creation
of the 1970-1987 epoch, the Historical Overview Committee has recognized there
are very few strong non-player candidates left from this time period. Indeed, for the initial Modern Baseball Era
ballot, the screening panel selected just one non-player candidate, Marvin
Miller, whose Hall of Fame candidacy has been and continues to be one of the
most controversial and hotly debated in the history of the Veterans or Era
Committees. After drawing the fourth
highest vote total in the Modern Baseball Era election with 43.8% of the vote,
Miller is likely to be chosen for the 2019 ballot. Aside from Miller, there are no other obvious
non-player candidate selections for the Historical Overview Committee to make
from the Modern Baseball Era's 1970-1987 timeframe. Bob Howsam, Charlie Finley, and Billy Martin
each appeared on one or more Era ballot and could be recycled as candidates,
though none drew any notable support in their appearances on the ballot. In addition, Howsam's career timeline may fit
better into the Golden Days time period while Finley's and Martin's Hall of
Fame cases are hampered by the many controversies that surrounded them
throughout their careers. Moreover,
virtually all non-player candidates eligible for the Modern Baseball Era are
deceased while the majority of eligible player candidates are still alive. In fact, Miller was the only of the ten
candidates on the recent Modern Baseball Era ballot no longer living.
The restructuring of the Era Committee time periods, which
resulted in creation of the Modern Baseball Era and the moving of newly
eligible non-player candidates into the Today's Game Era, undoubtedly increases
the chances Whitaker, Grich, and Evans will be selected by the Historical
Overview Committee to appear on a future ballot. Unfortunately, the decreasing of the ballot
size from twelve to ten candidates offsets some of the benefits. As long as all candidates are evaluated on
one composite ballot, the presence of non-player candidates will always
represent an obstacle for their player counterparts. Nevertheless, the new format which limits the
pool of candidates to the Modern Baseball Era's fixed 1970-1987 time period is
a big improvement from the previous one which cluttered the Expansion Era
ballot with recently retired or semi-active non-player candidates.
Pitchers selected to appear on the Expansion/Modern Baseball
Era ballots:
December 2010 Expansion Era: Tommy John, Vida Blue,
Ron Guidry
December 2013 Expansion Era: Tommy John, Dan
Quisenberry
Dec 2017 Modern Baseball Era: Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jack
Morris
While the Historical Overview Committee rarely make
selections that result in a position player overlap, the screening panel
recognizes pitcher candidates should be treated differently than their position
player counterparts and generally chooses two or three hurlers for each
ballot. As the only pitcher to have
lasted the maximum number of years on the BBWAA ballot eligible from the
1973-onwards time period, John was an obvious choice by the Historical Overview
Committee for both Expansion Era ballots.
John was joined on the 2010 ballot by hurlers Vida Blue and Ron Guidry.
Three years later, the screening panel went with just two pitchers,
selecting reliever Dan Quisenberry alongside John. For the recent Modern Baseball Era ballot,
the Historical Overview Committee expanded back to three pitcher selections,
once again picking John along with Jack Morris and Luis Tiant. Like John, Morris and Tiant each rode out
their full term on the BBWAA ballot. Morris
was newly eligible for the Modern Baseball Era ballot and his selection was a
given for the screening committee, having accumulated as much as 67.7% on the
BBWAA ballot. Tiant had appeared on both
Golden Era ballots but had failed to pick up much support in those
elections. However, with the restructuring
of the Era Committee timelines, Tiant's career fit more into the Modern Baseball
Era's 1970-1987 epoch. Morris was easily
voted into the Hall of Fame on the ensuing Modern Baseball Era election while
John and Tiant were non-factors.
 |
| Pitcher candidates also present an obstacle for Whitaker, Grich & Evans |
With the election of Morris, it will be interesting to see
how many hurlers and which ones will be chosen for future Modern Baseball Era
ballots. As candidates who lasted the
maximum number of years on the BBWAA ballot, John and Tiant may continue to be
the Historical Overview Committee's go-to selections for pitchers. However, John and Tiant have each appeared on
three Era Committee ballots and been an afterthought on each of those
elections, which could lead to other pitcher candidates being considered. With their use of previous past
BBWAA ballot results as a guide for Era ballot selections, the screening
panel may select Mickey Lolich who, aside from John and Tiant, is the only
other pitcher eligible for the Modern Baseball Era ballot whose Hall of Fame
candidacy completed its full term with the writers. Another direction the Historical Overview
Committee could go is to recycle Blue, Guidry, or Quisenberry. Although it seems less likely, the screening
panel could also turn their attention toward Rick Reuschel and Dave Stieb whose
Hall of Fame cases have been championed within the sabermetric community. While Reuschel and Stieb would make
intriguing choices for the Historical Overview Committee, advanced metrics and
WAR for pitchers are an even tougher sell to the old guard that sits on the
screening panel than it is for position players. Also, their lack of any support on the BBWAA
ballot undoubtedly works against them as Reuschel received just two checkmarks
while Stieb fared only slightly better with 1.4% of the vote in their sole
appearances with the writers.
When selecting candidates for the other Era Committees, the
Historical Overview Committee has been pretty consistent in selecting two or three
pitchers for each ballot. In fact, only
the initial Today's Game ballot has featured less than the customary two or
three hurlers with Orel Hershiser being the sole pitcher picked by the
screening committee. However with Morris
elected, the support of holdovers John and Tiant floundering, and so many
strong position players like Whitaker, Grich, and Evans yet to even appear on
the Expansion/Modern Baseball Era ballot, it is hard to see the screening panel
selecting more than two pitchers in the future and it's unlikely but not out of
the question that they may scale back to as little as one hurler candidate at
some point.
The Historical Overview Committee will release its next
three ballots for the Modern Baseball Era in Fall 2019, 2022, and 2024. Yet, with the screening panel's favoring of
candidates who lasted the maximum number of years on the BBWAA ballot, their
slow acceptance of advanced metrics, avoiding of position players overlaps,
along with the presence of non-player and pitcher candidates, there is no
guarantee Whitaker, Grich, and Evans will each be selected for one of the
future Modern Baseball Era ballots.
 |
| With Morris & Trammell elected to the HOF, focus now turns to Whitaker |
Following the elections of Jack Morris and Alan Trammell on
the initial Modern Baseball Era vote, two spots automatically open up for the ten-candidate
Fall 2019 ballot. As a long-time
teammate to both Morris and Trammell, Whitaker faced a unique obstacle which
may have played a role in keeping him off the Modern Baseball Era
ballot, as the screening panel was likely hesitant to put three candidates
from the same 1984 Detroit Tigers championship team on one ballot
together. With Morris and Trammell
elected, attention now turns to Whitaker and it's hard to see "Sweet
Lou" being passed over for the next Modern Baseball Era ballot. Moreover, Morris and Trammell have each
publicly stated they support Whitaker's Hall of Fame candidacy and are likely
to advocate for his selection during their Hall of Fame induction speeches in
July.
While Whitaker is almost certain to make the next Modern
Baseball Era ballot, the selections of Grich and Evans are much more in
question. As a second baseman, the focus
on Whitaker makes Grich a long-shot to make the next ballot due to the
Historical Overview Committee's reluctance to put two candidates who
specialized at the same position on the same ballot. Nevertheless, if Whitaker is elected, it will
highlight Grich's Hall of Fame case which--as a Gold Glove-winning keystoner
with a keen eye and power bat--is in many ways similar to "Sweet
Lou's." While Grich may become a
victim of the screening panel's avoidance of position player overlaps, Evans
already has seen himself passed over for the second Expansion Era and initial
Modern Baseball Era ballots in favor of right fielder peer Dave Parker. However, after Parker was a non-factor in
both elections, the screening panel may finally look past "Cobra" and
give the nod to "Dewey." Moreover,
with Steve Garvey, Luis Tiant, and Tommy John struggling to draw support on
their three Era ballot appearances it is highly unlikely the Historical
Overview Committee will select each of them for a fourth consecutive time, thus
freeing up space for overlooked candidates such as Whitaker, Grich, and Evans
to make the ballot.
----by John Tuberty
Follow me on the Twitter @BloggerTubbs
Sources: Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Play Index,
Baseball Hall of Fame, Sports Illustrated, The Detroit News, MLB Network Hot Stove interview with Bill Madden, Wikipedia, Baseball Projection
Photo Credit: 1984 Topps Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, &
Dwight Evans; 1987 Topps Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, & Dwight Evans; 1977
Topps Ted Simmons; 1982 Topps Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, & Dwight Evans;
1989 Topps Dwight Evans & Dave Parker; 1994 Upper Deck Ken Burns Marvin
Miller; 1993 Pinnacle Lou Whitaker, 1974 Topps Bobby Grich, 1982 Donruss Dwight
Evans, 1991 Topps Jack Morris, 1979 Topps Traded Tommy John, & 1977 Topps
Luis Tiant; 1986 Topps Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, & Lou Whitaker
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