Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame, and 400 Home Runs

Prior to the Steroid Era, 500 home runs was considered the milestone a slugger could reach to ensure that one day he would be immortalized in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  From 1936 to 2003, all 15 eligible sluggers who hit 500 or more home runs were voted into the Hall of Fame.  In addition, from 1939 to 2001, nine sluggers who finished their careers with 407 to 493 home runs appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot, seven of those nine were elected to the Hall of Fame, with five--Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Willie Stargell, Carl Yastrzemski, and Dave Winfield--gaining election in their first year on the ballot and the other two--Billy Williams and Duke Snider--being voted in on their sixth and eleventh ballot, respectively.  It was clear that a slugger who reached the 400 home run milestone had almost as good a chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame as a slugger who reached 500.  However, like everything else, the Steroid Era has complicated Hall of Fame voting.  Since 2002, six sluggers who hit between 431 to 493 home runs have appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot but only two of those six, Andre Dawson and Cal Ripken Jr., have been voted in.  Two others, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez, fell off the ballot after failing to collect 5% of the vote, while Jeff Bagwell and Fred McGriff remain on the ballot but are currently on the outside looking in.

Jeff Bagwell 1992 Topps

An impressive mix of power and speed with a dependable glove, Jeff Bagwell was arguably the best all around first baseman in the game during his career.  Although a shoulder injury brought a premature end to his 15-year career, his 449 career home runs, 1,529 RBIs, .297 career batting average, .408 career OBP, 202 stolen bases, and eye-popping 149 adjusted OPS+, make Bagwell stand out when compared to many 400 and 500 home run hitting Hall of Famers.  Since his career lacked first ballot Hall of Famer milestone stats, such as 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, it was not surprising when Bagwell failed to be elected in on his first ballot in 2011.  What was surprising was just how far Bagwell fell short of election, managing only 41.7% of the vote, and how many voters chose not to vote for him based on suspicions of PED use.  Luckily for "Bags," on the latest ballot his vote totals saw a promising increase to 56%, as many voters had a change of heart and decided to give the former Astros slugger the benefit of the doubt while some voters remain suspicious of his career achievements and continue to withhold their vote.  With his vote total well over fifty percent, Bagwell appears to be on the path to eventually be elected despite an onrush of strong Hall of Fame candidates set to join the ballot in the next five years.  However, the major threat to Bagwell's Hall of Fame candidacy is not the prospect of a crowded ballot but whether or not the slugger can attain the remaining 19% needed for election from the 44% of the voters who have chosen not to vote for him thus far.

Fred McGriff 1991 Topps

One of the most puzzling things about the recent Hall of Fame voting is the lack of support shown for "Crime Dog" Fred McGriff.  After dropping from 21.5% in his first year on the ballot to 17.9% last year, McGriff saw a modest rise to 23.9% on this year's weak ballot.  Like Bagwell, McGriff fell short of first ballot milestones but finished his career just shy of the 500 home run threshold with 493 and backed that up with 2,490 hits, 1,550 RBIs, a .284 career batting average, .377 career OBP, and a 134 adjusted OPS+.  It seems hard to believe Hall of Fame voters would continue to overlook a slugger with such an impressive statistical resume who has never been connected to PEDs.  After all, McGriff had been one of baseball's most dominant players during the first half of his career, averaging 35 HR, 95 RBI, .288 BA, .390 OBP, and a 155 adjusted OPS+ from 1988 to 1994.  During that seven year stretch, "Crime Dog" finished in the top four in home runs in his respective league, in addition to leading the AL in home runs in 1989 and the NL in 1992.  In the following years, McGriff's accomplishments took a backseat to his PED using peers' chasing of home run records.  And while the lanky slugger was no longer considered the dominant player he once had been, he was still very productive, averaging 27 HR, 99 RBI, .288 BA, .371 OBP, and a 122 adjusted OPS+ from 1995 to 2002.  Unfortunately for McGriff, both the dominant first half of his career as well as the respectable second half of his career have been overshadowed by the PED using sluggers of the Steroid Era.

Thus far, only four sluggers who hit over 400 home runs have failed to be voted into the Hall of Fame.  The first slugger to earn this dubious distinction was Dave Kingman.  Kingman was known for his towering home runs and finished his career with 442 of them but struggled to hit his weight, rarely walked, frequently struck out, was a well below average fielder, and made few friends in the press corp.  Kingman appeared on the ballot in 1992, but failed to make it past the first ballot, drawing only 0.7% of the vote.

Three years later, Darrell Evans appeared on the ballot.  Evans, in contrast to Kingman, was a more complete player who walked more than he struck out, spent much of his career playing 3rd base reasonably well, and led the AL with 40 home runs at age 38.  Evans appeared on the ballot in 1995, but voters must have paid more attention to his pedestrian .248 career batting average than his 414 home runs and .361 career OBP as, like Kingman, Evans was "one and done" on the Hall of Fame ballot after gaining only 1.7% of the vote.

Hall of Fame voting changed forever in 2007 when the controversial "Bash Brothers" Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire appeared on the ballot.  Long suspected of steroid use, Canseco did more than admit it--he wrote a book about it in which he implicated several players including former teammates McGwire, Juan Gonzalez, and Rafael Palmeiro in steroid use.  Not surprisingly, Canseco and his 462 home runs would be bounced off the ballot after picking up only 1.1% of the vote.  Even without the steroid baggage, Canseco may have struggled to get elected.  Despite winning the 1988 AL MVP and becoming the first player to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in one season, injuries took their toll on Canseco who only played in 1887 games, nearly half of which came as a DH.  Furthermore, he averaged more than a strikeout per game and retired with just a .266 career batting average.

Four years later controversial, two-time MVP, Juan Gonzalez made his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot.  In addition to being implicated as a steroid user by Canseco, Gonzalez's reputation already had taken a hit back in 2001 when Gonzalez and his trainer, Angel Presinal, were connected to an unmarked bag that contained steroids and needles.  After an underwhelming 5.2% debut on the ballot, Gonzalez managed only 4.0% in year two and "Juan Gone" and his 434 career home runs became just the fourth slugger with 400 home runs to fall off the Hall of Fame ballot.  Like Canseco, even without the steroid allegations the injury-prone Gonzalez may have been a tough sell to Hall of Fame voters due to his inability to stay on the field, his below average .343 career OBP, and his well below average defense.

Fred McGriff 1992 Topps

Kingman, Evans, Canseco, and Gonzalez though impressive home run hitters were each lacking in one or more statistical category which swayed Hall of Fame voters from casting a vote for them.  Conversely, Bagwell and McGriff's careers don't have any one statistical deficiency that would normally disqualify them from Hall of Fame voters.  Unlike Kingman, Evans, and Canseco, Bagwell and McGriff sported good career batting averages.  Bagwell and McGriff also took their fair share of walks, in contrast to Kingman and Gonzalez.  A model of consistency, McGriff didn't even spend a day on the disabled list during his 19-year career until his next to the last season and is third all-time in games played at first base, trailing only Eddie Murray and Jake Beckley, both Hall of Famers.  Bagwell's 2,150 game, 15-year career was short by Hall of Fame standards but, unlike Canseco and Gonzalez, he was durable until a shoulder injury brought an end to his career.  In fact, Bagwell played in 150 or more games in ten different seasons, more than Canseco and Gonzalez combined, and in six of those ten seasons played 160 or more games.

Jeff Bagwell 1995 Fleer Pro Vision

It is true that neither Bagwell nor McGriff are "inner circle," indisputable Hall of Famers like Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, or Hank Aaron, but in the current body of the Hall of Fame there is plenty of room for each of these 400 home run hitting sluggers.  In previous eras, hitting 400 home runs, except in the rare cases of Kingman and Evans, earned a slugger a bronze plaque and Hall of Fame immortality.  Regardless of steroids and other PEDs, Bagwell and McGriff both played in a hitter's era that featured smaller, more home run friendly ballparks and faced pitching staffs more diluted by expansion.  Yet, even if he had played in a less hitter friendly era, it is likely that despite his abbreviated career, Bagwell's overall excellence would have stood out enough for him to be voted in by the writers with years to spare and McGriff likely would have easily eclipsed 400 home runs, been given more credit for his two pre-Steroid Era home run titles, and also been granted Hall of Fame passage.  However, unless Bagwell is able to overcome the suspicions that surround his career achievements and McGriff is able to step out of the long shadow cast by the sluggers of the Steroid Era, these two sluggers are in danger of joining Kingman, Evans, Canseco, and Gonzalez as the next two 400 home run hitters to fail to be voted into the Hall of Fame by the writers.

----By John Tuberty

Related article:  Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame and The High Road In The Steroid Era

Sources:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Hall of Fame Voters: Don't Overlook Fred McGriff and Tim Raines

In the 2011 Baseball Hall of Fame vote four candidates--Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Jack Morris--each accumulated 50% or more of the vote with Alomar (90%) and Blyleven (79.7%) tallying the required 75% for election and Larkin (62.1%) and Morris (53.5%) coming next closest.  In 2011, the average Hall of Fame voter cast about six votes per ballot, so with the election of Alomar and Blyleven, many voters may look down the ballot and reconsider some holdovers they have previously overlooked.  Two holdovers who definitely deserve a second look are "Crime Dog" Fred McGriff and Tim "Rock" Raines.

A home run slugging first baseman, McGriff will be making his third appearance on the ballot.  After a disappointing 21.5% debut on the 2010 ballot, "Crime Dog's" vote total saw a surprising drop to 17.9% in his second year.  Those vote totals are especially low considering McGriff's career had the qualities most Hall of Fame voters look for:

Excellence--hit 31 to 37 home runs each year from 1988 to 1994 and was in the top 4 in his respective league, leading the AL in 1989 and NL in 1992.  Was a key figure in one of the most memorable Division races when he helped the 1993 Atlanta Braves go 51-17 and come from nine games back to overtake the San Francisco Giants for the NL West Division title after acquiring him from the San Diego Padres in late July.

Milestones--493 home runs and 2,490 hits, just shy of 500 and 2,500, totals he would have most certainly eclipsed had it not been for the 1994 baseball strike.  McGriff also drove in 1,550 runs in his career and had an excellent 134 career adjusted OPS+.

Consistency--hit 19 or more home runs each year from 1987-2002 including 30 or more ten times during that stretch.  Though no longer a perennial MVP candidate following the 1994 season, McGriff was still a very productive player averaging 27 HR, 99 RBI, .288 BA, .371 OBP, and a 121 adjusted OPS+ from 1995-2002.

Longevity/Durability--appeared in 2239 games at first base, third all-time behind Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Jake Beckley, thus preventing his team from having to use a replacement-level bench player in his place.  In addition, the 2003 season was the only year he spent time on the disabled list.  

McGriff's career started in 1986, the same year as Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Rafael Palmeiro.  Prior to the 1994 baseball strike, McGriff was the most ubiquitous home run hitter of the four.  However, following the strike, Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro all saw big jumps in their home run totals with their amount of at bats per home run decreasing by almost half for the balance of their careers after the strike.  McGriff, by contrast, saw a natural decline and occasional rebound in his home run totals:

McGriff’s Home Run Totals vs. his peers                              

                        86-94              95-on              Career total               

McGriff            262                 231 (95-04)           493                         

Bonds             259                 503 (95-07)           762                

McGwire         238                 345 (95-01)           583 

Fred McGriff 1989 Score

Palmeiro        155                  414 (95-05)           569

McGriff’s AB per HR vs. his peers

                        86-94              95-on              Career total

McGriff            15.2                20.7 (95-04)            17.8

Bonds             17.4                10.6 (95-07)            12.9

McGwire         14.0                  8.2 (95-01)            10.6

Palmeiro         27.8                14.9 (95-05)            18.4

--Table originally used in article:  Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame and The High Road In The Steroid Era

As we all know, Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro have all faced PED allegations which have doomed or at the very least complicated their Hall of Fame candidacies.  Conversely, McGriff's reputation has remained intact but due to playing the second half of his career in what has become known as the Steroid Era his impressive career accomplishments are being overlooked by the Hall of Fame voters.

The NL's premier leadoff hitter and base stealer of the 1980's, Tim "Rock" Raines was always a little overshadowed by AL contemporary Rickey Henderson, who is generally regarded as the greatest leadoff hitter and base stealer of all-time.  Raines debuted with just 24.3% of the vote on the 2008 Hall of Fame ballot.  Like McGriff, Raines saw a surprising drop to 22.6% in his second year on the ballot, the same year Henderson breezed into the Hall of Fame with 94.8% of the vote.  Perhaps with Henderson's induction, some Hall of Fame voters took another glance at Raines' Hall of Fame credentials as the speedster's vote totals jumped in 2010 and 2011 to 30.4% and 37.5%, respectively.  Also like McGriff, Raines' career includes qualities that should make "Rock" a viable candidate for election:

Excellence--finished career with 808 stolen bases, good for 5th most all-time.  His 84.7 stolen base percentage is better than Hall of Fame base stealers Henderson (80.8) and Lou Brock (75.3).  Additionally, he stole 70 or more bases six years in a row, from 1981 to 1986, and was the NL league leader each year from 1981 to 1984.  Also, Raines wasn't just a base stealer, he was a good overall hitter who led the league in other categories such as runs scored, doubles, batting average, and on base percentage.  "Rock" finished his career with a 123 adjusted OPS+--a very high total for a leadoff hitter, along with a .294 career BA and .385 career OBP.

Milestones--lost time to both the 1981 and 1994 baseball strikes but still finished with 808 stolen bases and 2,605 hits.

Consistency--never had a batting average lower than .266 or an OBP lower than .350 while he a was a full-time player.

Longevity/Durability--played over 20 years and won two World Series rings late in his career as a valuable role player for the Yankees.  Had his 1999 season cut short when he was stricken with lupus but battled back from the life-threatening disease and returned to the majors for the 2001 and 2002 seasons.

Raines may fall a little short when compared to Hall of Fame base stealing contemporary Rickey Henderson but appears to be a logical Hall of Fame choice when compared to Hall of Famer Lou Brock:

Tim Raines 1987 Topps

Raines and Brock have similar career batting averages of .294 and .293, respectively, as well as comparable slugging percentages of .425 and .410, however, Raines' .385 career OBP greatly exceeds Brock's .343 career mark.  While it is true that Brock did play the bulk of his career during a pitcher's era, only in Brock's best OBP season, .385 in 1971, did the Cardinals speedster even match Raines' career OBP.  Moreover, Raines' 123 adjusted OPS+ and 64.6 WAR outshine Brock's respective career totals of 109 and 39.1.  Raines and Brock both spent most of their careers as left fielders and while neither player was considered Gold Glove caliber, Raines' .987 career fielding percentage far exceeds Brock's .959 mark.

--Excerpt from The Best Players Not In the Hall of Fame By Position-Part 2:  Tim Raines and Dwight Evans Highlight The Outfield

Sources:  www.baseball-reference.com

The Best Players Not In the Hall of Fame By Position-Part 2: Tim Raines and Dwight Evans Highlight the Outfield

Over the years I have come across many articles about who is the best player at each position not in the Hall of Fame.  Usually those articles only include a sentence or two about the players chosen.  I decided to take a more in depth look at the players I chose, what may have kept them from being elected to the Hall of Fame, and their chances in the future.  In part one, I looked at the infield, catcher, and starting pitcher.  Part two centers on the outfield, designated hitter, and relief pitcher.  As I stated in part one, you won't see any accused or proven PED users at any of these positions since many of the players I have chosen to include have had their careers overshadowed by PED users' tarnished achievements.

Left Field:  Tim Raines ('79-'02) 2502G 2605H 1571R 170HR 980RBI .294BA .385OBP 123OPS+ Highest HOF vote 37.5%-2011 Yrs on ballot-4

Tim Raines 1986 Topps

Tim Raines was the NL's premier leadoff hitter and base stealer of the 1980's but he had the misfortune of having his career coincide with that of Rickey Henderson, arguably the greatest leadoff hitter and base stealer of all-time.  Both Raines and Henderson were decent outfielders who each boasted a higher batting average, on base percentage, and better than average power for a leadoff hitter.  "Rock" led the league in stolen bases four years in a row, from 1981 to 1984, and finished in the top-five several other years.  However, Henderson led the league in stolen bases twelve times, over a 19-year span.  Raines stole 808 bases in his career, good for fifth all-time, with an 84.7% success rate compared to Henderson's 80.8%.  Yet, Henderson was, by far, the most prolific base stealer in baseball history, swiping an all-time high 1,406 bags.

While it is true Raines generally falls short in comparison to his contemporary Henderson, "Rock" stands tall when measured against other prominent base-stealing leadoff hitters.  Raines finished his career with an impressive .385 OBP and, along with Henderson, often stayed on par with the league leaders in that category--which almost seems like it should be expected of a base stealing leadoff hitter--yet Raines and Henderson are the exception rather than the rule.  By contrast, Willie Wilson and Vince Coleman, two other notable base stealing leadoff hitters of the 80's, finished their careers with OBPs of .326 and .324, respectively.  In earlier generations, All-Star leadoff hitters Maury Wills (career .330 OBP), Bert Campaneris (career .311 OBP), and Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio (career .311 OBP) each dominated the stolen bases leaderboards but struggled to make it on base a third of the time.  In fact, none of these famous leadoff hitter's best OBP season even equaled Raines' career .385 mark, with Luis Aparicio coming the closest with a .372 OBP in 1970.

Raines' career numbers stack up favorably to another Hall of Fame leadoff hitter, Lou Brock.  Raines and Brock have similar career batting averages of .294 and .293, respectively, as well as comparable slugging percentages of .425 and .410, however, Raines' .385 career OBP greatly exceeds Brock's .343 career mark.  While it is true that Brock did play the bulk of his career during a pitcher's era, only in Brock's best OBP season, .385 in 1971, did the Cardinals speedster even match Raines' career OBP.  Moreover, Raines' 123 adjusted OPS+ and 64.6 WAR outshine Brock's respective career totals of 109 and 39.1.  Raines and Brock both spent most of their careers as left fielders and while neither player was considered Gold Glove caliber, Raines' .987 career fielding percentage far exceeds Brock's .959 mark.

Tim Raines 1991 Topps

Brock, however, was at his best in the postseason, batting .391 in three World Series and playing a big part in two Cardinals championships.  Raines, on the other hand, batted a respectable .270 in the postseason and also won two World Series rings, albeit as a part-time player for the late 90's Yankee dynasty.  In addition, Brock set both the single season and all-time career records for stolen bases (each of which were later broken by Rickey Henderson) and also surpassed 3,000 career hits.  Yet, Raines' ability to draw walks gave the former Expo a 3,977 to 3,833 edge in career times on base despite having 876 less career plate appearances.  Raines may not have set the stolen base records that Brock did but was the much more successful base stealer, swiping 808 bags at an 84.7% success rate while Brock was more prolific, nabbing 938 bases--though he was only successful 75.3% of the time.  Furthermore, while Brock did lead the league in stolen bases eight times, compared to Raines' four, he also led the league in being caught stealing seven times, a dubious honor Raines never held.  Raines was also better at making contact, never striking out more than 83 times in a season, while Brock fanned 100-plus times in nine different seasons and finished his career with 1,730 strikeouts--trailing only Willie Stargell for the most ever at the time of his retirement in 1979.  Despite this, when Brock became eligible for the Hall of Fame, the former Cardinal was voted in on his first try with 79.7% of the vote.  That is not to say Brock's career wasn't Hall of Fame worthy, although, by contrast, Raines--who lacked Brock's records and milestones but also lacked many of Brock's weaknesses--didn't even come close to election on his first try, drawing only 24.3% of the vote.

One blemish on Raines' career that may be costing the speedster some votes is his early career cocaine use.  During the middle of the 1982 season, when Raines realized his drug use had became a problem, he met with the Expos front office and agreed to start seeing a psychiatrist to combat his addiction.  Additionally, at season's end Raines voluntarily checked into rehab.  In the ensuing public fall-out caused by Raines' cocaine use, the speedster was regretful, honest, and up front about his drug use.  Fortunately, Raines was able to get clean and was not involved in any drug or other scandal for the balance of his career.  Some Hall of Fame voters have categorized cocaine use, like steroids, as a performance enhancer.  However, Raines suffered a noticeable drop off in performance during the 1982 season, which the speedster attributed to his drug use, and in fact, had his finest seasons in the years immediately after he got clean.  Furthermore, admitting early career cocaine use didn't stop Paul Molitor from being elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility in 2004.  What is rarely brought up is Raines' battle with lupus that brought a premature end to his 1999 season and threatened to end his career all together.  "Rock" courageously battled back and was able to return to the majors for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, during which he sported an impressive .381 OBP and even played a few games alongside his son, Tim Jr.  In addition, Raines also lost playing time during both the 1981 and 1994-95 baseball strikes.

Out of all the players chosen for each position in this two part article, Raines has the best chance of one day being elected to the Hall of Fame.  After a weak 24.3% debut on the ballot, "Rock" surprisingly fell to 22.6% the following year--the same year base-stealing contemporary Henderson was elected on his first try with 94.8% of the vote.  Fortunately for Raines, the next two ballots saw promising increases to 30.4% and 37.5%--exactly halfway to the 75% needed for election.  If Raines is able to continue his current upward trend, he should be elected with a few years to spare.  However, with a glut of surefire Hall of Famers (Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., etc.), controversial candidates tarnished by PED use allegations (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Sheffield, etc.), and a poor man's version of himself (Kenny Lofton) set to crowd the ballot in the next five years, a continued upward trend toward election is not a given.

Center Field:  Dale Murphy ('76-'93) 2180G 2111H 1197R 398HR 1266RBI .265BA .346OBP 121OPS+ Highest HOF vote 23.2%-2000 Yrs on ballot-13
    

MVP Dale Murphy 1984 Donruss

I'm sure someone has probably said it before:  What a player does in his twenties sets him up for a Hall of Fame career--but it is actually what he does in his thirties that makes or breaks his Hall of Fame chances.  Perhaps no player is a better example of this than Dale Murphy.  In his twenties, Murphy seemingly could do it all, he led the league in such categories as home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, walks, and runs scored.  At their peak, few players have been as dominant and as well rounded as Murphy, who in 1983 became only the sixth man in baseball history to hit more than 30 home runs and steal 30 bases.  In addition, Murphy won back-to-back MVP awards in 1982 and 1983, five straight Gold Gloves in center field, played in 740 consecutive games, and even led the (at the time) long suffering Atlanta Braves to the postseason in 1982.  By age thirty, the former Braves slugger had already hit 237 home runs with a slash line of .278BA .357OBP .850OPS and an adjusted OPS+ of 130.  After turning thirty, Murphy had a decent year in 1986 and one more excellent one in 1987 before the bottom seemed to drop out on the slugger's career.  From 1988 until the end of his career, Murphy was a shell of his former self, only managing a line of .234BA .307OBP .702OPS and a below league average adjusted OPS+ of 96.

Murphy's final career numbers of just over 2,000 hits and just under 400 home runs put him in the company of both Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers.  One such Hall of Famer, Jim Rice, had a dominant peak similar to Murphy's and also quickly faded in his early thirties.  When Murphy first appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1999, only Dave Kingman and Darrell Evans had hit more home runs and not been elected to the Hall of Fame.  However, with the Steroid Era and its tainted records in full swing, Murphy's numbers were already beginning to look paltry by comparison.  In his first year of eligibility, Murphy collected 19.3% of the vote, not a bad total when you consider future Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, and Carlton Fisk all debuted on the ballot that year.  Murphy made a modest increase the next year to 23.2% before dropping over the next several years all the way down to 8.5% by 2004.  Since then his support has been up and down, always right around 10%, with Murphy tallying 12.6% on the latest ballot.

Declining Dale Murphy 1992 Topps

In his prime, Murphy was a rare breed whose five-tool skills arguably made him the best player in the game. Yet, the Braves slugger was known as much for his good deeds off the field as he was for his accomplishments on it.  In 1987, Murphy was named co-Sportsman of the Year by Sports Illustrated, largely due to his charity work.  If there was ever such a thing as a "Hall of Fame Human Being," by all accounts, Dale Murphy would be it.  Although, with stagnated support and just two years left on the ballot, it looks as if Murphy's only chance for the Hall of Fame will be through the Veterans Committee.

Right Field:  Dwight Evans ('72-'91) 2606G 2446H 1470R 385HR 1384RBI .272BA .370OBP 127OPS+ Highest HOF vote 10.4%-1998 Yrs on ballot-3

When younger Red Sox fans think of the number 24 at Fenway, they generally think of Manny Ramirez, his up and down seven and a half year saga with the club, the joy and the stress he caused with his "Manny being Manny" attitude, the two long sought World Series wins he helped yield, and his controversial trade and embarrassing exit from the team.  However, when most die-hard, long suffering, pre-Red Sox Nation fans think of the number 24 at Fenway, they remember Dwight Evans, his outstanding glove-work near Pesky's Pole in right field, his mid-career emergence as a power-hitter, his unquestioned work ethic, and his dedication to the team.  For nearly two decades, "Dewey" was a dependable, steady presence during Boston's ups and downs.  He played important roles on the 1975 and 1986 pennant winning clubs that came up just short to the Reds and Mets in two classic World Series, battled head-to-head against both the "Bronx Zoo" Yankees of the late 70's as well as the Mattingly/Winfield led Yankees of the 80's, and was still a major contributor at the end of his Sox career when Boston was swept out of the ALCS by the Athletics and their mighty "Bash Brothers" in 1988 and 1990.

Dwight Evans 1975 Topps

For the first half of his career, Evans was more known for sure-handed glove and strong throwing arm in right field than his bat.  In fact, "Dewey" won his first of eight Gold Gloves in 1976 after highlighting his defensive prowess with a tie preserving catch and assist in Game 6 of the previous year's World Series that helped set the stage for Carlton Fisk's memorable game-winning home run.  During the 1980 season, Evans worked with hitting coach Walt Hriniak, who changed his batting stance, and was able to evolve into one of baseball's best hitters, tying for the league lead in home runs the following year.  Moreover, during the decade of the 1980's, Evans led the AL with 256 home runs and all of baseball with 605 extra base hits.  After 19 years with Boston, "Dewey" ended his career after playing one season with the Baltimore Orioles.  Although he was past his prime, Evans still managed to get on base at a more than respectable .393 clip in his final season.

Evans finished his career with nearly 2,500 career hits, almost 400 home runs, and a second half career surge along with a trio of recent playoff appearances fresh in voter's minds.  Yet when the BBWAA votes were counted, Evans only managed 5.9% of the vote on a weak Hall of Fame ballot in which four-time holdover Phil Niekro was finally elected and the only other first-time candidate to draw decent support was former Pirates slugger Dave Parker with 17.5%.  On his second ballot, Evans made a moderate increase to 10.4%, only to drop off the BBWAA ballot for good, one year later, when his support tumbled to 3.6% on a crowded ballot that included first-time nominees Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, and Carlton Fisk.      

For the greater part of his career, Evans was overshadowed by fellow outfielder and future Hall of Famer Jim Rice.  During the first half of his career, Evans was generally batted near the bottom of the order, while Rice was batted in the heart of the order, due in large part to Rice's higher batting average.  In fact, more than three quarters of Rice's career plate appearances came at third or fourth in the batting order compared to less than 15% of Evans' plate appearances coming at those spots.  Even during his peak years in the 1980's, "Dewey" was usually batted second or sixth while Boston managers continually used declining superstars such as Rice and Carl Yastrzemski or overrated hitters like Tony Armas and Bill Buckner in the three and four holes.  Underrated by even his own club, Evans was still able to put up strong RBI and runs scored totals despite being moved all around the batting order.  In fact, over the course of his career, Evans had 434 or more plate appearances at each of the nine spots in the order.

Dwight Evans 1986 Topps

In the decade plus since Evans fell off the Hall of Fame ballot, writers and fans alike have begun to look for a deeper understanding of baseball statistics.  Books like "Moneyball" and writers such as Bill James have brought overlooked stats such as OBP and OPS+ to the forefront and sabermetric stats like WAR are now viewed alongside the more traditional, easily quantified stats such as batting average, home runs, and RBI.  "Dewey's" strong performance in these overlooked and sabermetric statsitics underline how great a player he was.  In fact, Evans edges former teammate Rice in career OBP (.370 to .352), is on par with him in career OPS+ (127 to 128), and greatly outpaces the Hall of Famer in career WAR (61.8 to 41.5).  

"Dewey's" lack of Hall of Fame support most likely stemmed from his .272 lifetime batting average, a relatively low total for a Hall of Famer.  When Evans fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after the 1999 election, on base percentage had yet to emerge from the shadow of batting average.  However, over the next several years, the "Idiot" Red Sox and "Moneyball" Oakland Athletics teams, along with their young general managers, Theo Epstein and Billy Beane proved that building teams on undervalued statistics such as OBP rather than just traditional stats like batting average was an excellent strategy.  Had Evans debuted on the ballot during this time, it is likely his excellent .370 career OBP would have gained him more than enough votes to stay on the ballot and in the following years a focus on his strong 61.8 career WAR may have gathered the underrated slugger enough support to eventually be elected.  Both undervalued stats like OBP and sabermetric stats such as WAR along with batting average and other traditional stats will play a part in the debate when "Dewey's" Hall of Fame case is re-opened the next time the Expansion Era division of the Veterans Committee convenes in 2013.

Designated Hitter:  Edgar Martinez ('87-'04) 2055G 2247H 1219R 309HR 1261RBI .312BA .418OBP 147OPS+ Highest HOF vote 36.2%-10 Yrs on ballot-2

When 41-year old Edgar Martinez finally decided to call it a career at the end of the 2004 season, the slugger had accomplished a rare feat in this day and age:  he had played his entire career with one team, the Seattle Mariners.  Martinez's 18-year odyssey with the Mariners predated Ken Griffey Jr.'s arrival in Seattle and spanned to include the club's metamorphoses from league doormat to perennial contender, all four of the franchise's playoff appearances, and a move from the dreary Kingdome to beautiful Safeco Field, before finally seeing its conclusion a few seasons into the "Ichiro Era."

Few players have meant more to a franchise than Martinez did to the Mariners during the 1995 season.  Despite losing superstar Ken Griffey Jr. to injury for almost half the season, the Mariners were able to catch and pass the California Angels for their first division title.  This was, in large part, behind the strength of Martinez's bat which led the AL with an eye popping 52 doubles, .356 batting average, .479 OBP, and 185 adjusted OPS+.  During Game 4 of the ALDS, with the team facing elimination against the New York Yankees, Martinez erased most of a five run deficit with a 3-run home run off Scott Kamieniecki in the bottom of the 3rd and, later, in the bottom of the 8th it was Martinez's grand slam off closer John Wetteland that broke a 6-6 tie to force Game 5.  The following night, Martinez finished off the Yankees with a memorable 11th inning two-run walk off double against Yankees hurler Jack McDowell to bring the franchise its first playoff series win after nearly two decades of futility.  Martinez, his teammates, and their accomplishments during the 1995 season went a long way toward getting the team the new ballpark at Safeco Field that would keep the franchise in Seattle.

3B Edgar Martinez 1992 Bowman

Martinez's excellent 1995 season was also his first as the team's designated hitter after the team moved him from 3rd base.  Prior to the move to DH, Martinez had put up three impressive offensive seasons, including an All-Star 1992 season in which he led the AL with a .343 batting average, before spending a large portion of the 1993 season and some of the 1994 season on the disabled list.  Much like Paul Molitor, a permanent move to DH helped keep Martinez off the DL and in the line up.  In fact, for the next nine years Martinez averaged nearly 40 doubles, over 25 home runs, 100 plus RBI, along with a .321 batting average, .438 OBP, and a 159 adjusted OPS+.

Martinez's career .312 average, .418 OBP, and 147 adjusted OPS+ have Hall of Fame immortality written all over them.  However, the Mariners slugger wasn't able to stick in the big leagues as a full-time player until he was 27, so his 2247 career hits are a touch below Cooperstown norms.  In addition, over 70% of his plate appearances came as a DH and depending on the Hall of Fame voter that may cost Martinez some votes.  Harold Baines, for example, was announced as the DH for more than half his plate appearances and fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after just a few elections despite 2,866 career hits.  However, Martinez was a much more dominant hitter than Baines, whose impressive career totals were more a product of longevity rather than dominance.  First ballot Hall of Famer Paul Molitor batted as a DH for almost half his career, yet easily made his way to Cooperstown, due in large part to his 3,319 career hits.  Another debate that is brought up in Martinez's Hall of Fame candidacy is whether not playing in the field should be as great a penalty as below average fielding.  Willie McCovey and Willie Stargell were never bestowed with Gold Gloves during their playing careers and are both several defensive wins below replacement for their careers.  The late Harmon Killebrew's glove was hidden at both corners of the infield and also out in left field before he finally finished his career as a DH.  However, suspect fielding didn't keep any of these men, all dominant hitters, out of Cooperstown.

DH Edgar Martinez 2001 UD Ovation

In his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot, Martinez was able to draw decent support with 36.2% of the vote.  However, the former Mariner slugger saw a surprising drop to 32.9% on the latest ballot and while suffering a drop in vote totals in the second year does not necessarily doom a Hall of Fame bid--as we've seen in the recent cases of Bert Blyleven, Gary Carter, and Phil Niekro--it certainly is not a promising trend.  In the coming years, Martinez along with Fred McGriff, another Hall of Fame candidate who debuted on the ballot in 2010 and saw decreased support on his second ballot, will find himself fighting for votes on a crowded ballot with both tarnished and untarnished stars of the Steroid Era.  One thing that may help or may hurt Martinez, there's no player quite like him on the ballot.
                      
Relief Pitcher:  Lee Smith ('80-'97) 71-92 .436W% 3.03ERA 1022G 478SV 1289.1IP 1251K 132ERA+ Highest HOF vote 47.3%-2010 Yrs on ballot-9

Intimidating Fireman Lee Smith 1986 Topps

Lee Smith's career as a reliever started in the early 80's back when a bullpen's best pitcher was referred to as a fireman and entering a game in the 7th inning with the tying run on base wasn't out of the question.  By the time Smith's career ended in the late 90's, firemen were a thing of the past, the top man in the bullpen was now known as the closer, and entering a game in the 9th with no runners on base had become the norm.  Smith is one of the few relief pitchers to find success as both a fireman and a closer.  In fact, Smith led the league in saves in 1983 during the dying days of the fireman and also led the league in saves in 1991, 1992, and 1994 as the closer in a specialized bullpen.  In addition to leading the league in saves four times, Smith was a four-time runner up to the league leader in 1984, 1985, 1987, and 1995.  Smith never won a Cy Young but finished as high as second, in 1991, when he set the (at the time) NL single season saves record with 47.  Smith also picked up two NL Rolaids Relief awards, in 1991 and 1992, as well as one AL Rolaids Relief award in 1994.  During the 1993 season, the intimidating 6'5" Smith passed Jeff Reardon as the all-time saves leader, an honor he held until Trevor Hoffman notched save number 479 in late 2006.

Thus far, only five relief pitchers have been elected to the Hall of Fame:  Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, and Rich Gossage, each of whom were firemen, and Dennis Eckersley who was a closer.  Over Smith's career, the intimidating reliever successfully converted 82% of his save opportunities.  In fact, Smith's save success rate is higher than Wilhelm's (79%), Fingers' (76%), Sutter's (75%), and Gossage's (73%) but just below Eckersley's (85%).  Although, one could make the argument that Smith's save success rate is only as high as it is because most of his saves came as a closer rather than a fireman.  However, during Smith's eight seasons in Chicago, he was generally used as a fireman and successfully converted 80% of his saves.

On Smith's first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot, in 2003, the intimidating reliever drew a promising 42.3% of the vote.  At the time, Smith's vote percentage put him just behind former teammate Ryne Sandberg's 49.2% and just ahead of fireman Rich Gossage's 42.1%.  However, the following year, Smith's support unexpectedly plummeted to 36.6%, the same year former closer Dennis Eckersley breezed into the Hall of Fame on his first try with 83.2% of the vote.  Two years later, on a weak 2006 ballot, fireman Bruce Sutter was finally elected on his thirteenth try, while Smith rebounded to 45%.  However, the next year Smith's support dropped again, this time to 39.8%, just a few months after Trevor Hoffman broke his all-time saves record.  In 2008, Gossage--whose increased vote totals since 2003 contrasted Smith's stagnant support--was elected on his ninth try while Smith tallied 43.3%.  On the latest Hall of Fame ballot, Smith's vote percentage fell once again, this time from a personal high of 47.3% in 2010 down two percent to 45.3.  On the same ballot, closer John Franco, who sits one spot below Smith with 424 career saves, fell off the BBWAA ballot for good after gaining only 4.6% of the vote on his first try.

Intimidating Closer Lee Smith 1991 Topps

 

Since his 2003 debut on the Hall of Fame ballot, Smith's vote percentage has fluctuated between 36.6 and 47.3%.  It would appear that one-third of the voters strongly back the intimidating reliever's candidacy regardless of the strength of the ballot.  One reason why Smith may have struggled to sway more voters is his .436 career win percentage.  Win/loss record is not considered the best way to evaluate a reliever but Smith's win percentage is lower than each of the five relievers in the Hall of Fame.  What's more, with a series of crowded Hall of Fame ballots on the horizon and closers Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner likely to join the ballot in 2016, it is doubtful Smith's see-saw support will rise to 75% and the intimidating reliever will probably need to wait for the Veterans Committee to weigh the sum of his career, fireman and closer.

--Related articles:   

The Best Players Not In the Hall of Fame By Position-Part1:  Fred McGriff and Ron Santo Highlight the Infield

Fred McGriff, The Hall of Fame, and The High Road In The Steroid Era

--Sources for Part 1 and 2:  Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball Hall of Fame, SI Vault, and Google News Archive