Carlos Beltrán Reaches a Bunch of Milestones, Chris Archer and James Shields Just Miss Losing 20, Chase Utley Goes the Entire Season Without Grounding into a Double Play and Other Statistical Tidbits of 2016

The 2016 baseball season played host to its share of interesting statistical tidbits.  Some of these statistics were accomplishments, while others were dubious, and even others were of the odd variety.

Carlos Beltrán Greatly Strengthens his Hall of Fame Case by Reaching a Quartet of Milestones

For Carlos Beltrán, 2016 was an important year that saw the veteran reach four separate milestones, the combination of which greatly strengthened his Hall of Fame case and should eventually earn the slugger a bronze plaque in Cooperstown.  Coming off a disappointing injury-plagued 2014 and an adequate but unspectacular 2015, 2016 represented the final season of Beltrán's three-year contract with the New York Yankees.  Beltrán struggled early to start the 2016 campaign--batting just .253 with an abysmal .276 OBP at the end of April.  Fortunately the switch-hitting Beltrán found his power stroke in May, smacking 8 home runs and accomplishing an important milestone with his 400th career longball on May 15.  Less than two weeks later, Beltrán attained another key milestone on May 28 with his 2,500th hit which coincidentally was a home run.  By reaching 400 home runs and 2,500 hits, Beltrán became one of just twenty-nine hitters in the baseball history to achieve both milestones.

Beltran reached four separate milestones in 2016

Beltrán swung a red-hot bat in June, hitting a potent .366 with a .422 OBP while adding 7 more homers.  Beltrán's excellent hitting kept New York in the hunt for the postseason and earned the veteran his ninth All-Star selection.  In his first game after the All-Star break, Beltrán accomplished his next milestone by reaching 1,500 RBI with a bases loaded single which drove in a pair of runs on July 15.  As a potential free agent at season's end and with the Yankees focused on a youth movement, Beltrán's name began to surface in trade deadline deals.  On August 1, Beltrán was traded to the AL West Division leading Texas Rangers for three minor leaguers.  Two days later, Beltrán stroked his 23rd home run of the year and 415th of his career--in the process achieving his fourth major milestone of the season by scoring his 1500th career run.  Beltrán finished 2016 with 29 home runs, 93 RBI, and a .295 batting average, in the process helping Texas cruise to an AL West Divisional title.

These accomplishments put Beltrán in select company as one of only twenty-three players to reach 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, 1,500 RBI, and 1,500 runs.  While this quartet of milestones greatly strengthens Beltrán's Hall of Fame case, none of these totals are viewed as an automatic ticket to Cooperstown the way 500 home runs or 3,000 hits is.  Moreover, Beltrán will turn 40 next April, so it is doubtful he will play long enough to reach either the 500 home run or 3,000-hit milestones.  However, throughout his career, Beltrán has been one of the game's finest players, making nine All-Star teams while winning the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year along with two Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.  In addition, Beltrán was a five-tool player during the first half of his career, using his speed to steal more than 300 bases at an over 85% success rate while also showcasing defensive skills that earned him the Gold Gloves at center field.  On top of that, Beltrán has been one of the most dominant postseason hitters of his generation.  Yet, some of the Hall of Fame electorate may withhold their vote because Beltrán has only one top-five MVP Award finish or discount his strong postseason stats since he has never won a World Series.

Nevertheless, Beltrán's strong hitting in 2016 was key for the veteran as achieving 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, 1,500 RBI, and 1,500 runs will help him garner votes with the more traditional/old school Hall of Fame electorate who favor round milestones over analytical value.  Moreover, at season's end, Beltrán sat at an impressive 70.4 Wins Above Replacement and 36.4 Wins Above Average for his career, so he will undoubtedly draw strong support from younger, more sabermetrically-inclined voters as well.  While Beltrán lacks the 500 home run or 3,000 hit milestone that would quickly gain him Hall of Fame election, the veteran's attaining of a quartet of secondary milestones underscore his excellent career and make the switch-hitter a strong candidate for election by the BBWAA or at the very least an eventual selection by the Era Committee.

Hurlers Chris Archer and James Shields Come One Defeat Away from Joining the Dubious 20-Loss Club

There's an old baseball saying that you have to be a pretty good pitcher to lead the league in losses because your team must have enough faith in your abilities if they allow you to continue towing the rubber for every start despite the defeats piling up.  Going into the 2016 season, hurlers Chris Archer and James Shields seemed a stronger bet to lead their pitching peers in wins or strikeouts rather than losses.  However, by season's end, Archer and Shields led baseball with 19 defeats a piece--becoming the first hurlers since Darrell May in 2004 to lose that many games.

Archer was snakebit by poor run support in 2016

Chris Archer's 2016 memorably started with a long handshake of President Barack Obama in Havana, Cuba before the young pitcher's Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cuban National Team in a pre-season exhibition game.  The 27-year old Archer was coming off a solid 2015 campaign in which the right-hander finished second to only Chris Sale for the AL lead with 252 strikeouts and further cemented his status as one of the game's best young pitchers.  Archer appeared poised to take the next step in 2016 and contend for the AL Cy Young Award before tripping out of the gate and losing his first four starts.  Archer settled down in his next five starts, going 3-0 and lowering his ERA from 7.32 to 4.38.  However, Archer's season fell apart over the next two months with the righty going 1-9 in 11 starts.  Archer's ERA during that 11 start stretch was a poor but not abysmal 4.90.  Tampa Bay particularly struggled to score runs for Archer during this time, only putting up more than five runs once in those 11 starts.  With 13 losses through the first 89 games of the season, the young hurler was easily on pace to join Mike Maroth as the first 20-game loser since 2003.  Fortunately, Archer returned to his 2015 form with a 3.03 ERA over his next 11 starts, though the young hurler still piled up five more losses against four wins.  Poor run support doomed Archer again on September 23 against the Boston Red Sox as his only mistake in six innings of work was giving up a two-run home run to David Ortiz which resulted in a 2-1 defeat for Tampa Bay, saddling the youngster with loss number 19.

Following the loss to Boston, Archer had one more scheduled start on September 29.  In previous seasons, teams have held 19 game losers out of their last start or moved them to the bullpen to spare them the embarrassment of losing 20 games.  Faced with the possibility of joining the dubious 20-loss club, Archer showed courage and guile by taking the ball for his final start.  Archer pitched decently, limiting the Chicago White Sox to three runs over six and two-thirds innings as Tampa Bay held on for the 5-3 win--in the process giving their young hurler his 9th victory of the season.  Archer finished the season with a poor for him but slightly above league average 4.02 ERA.  In addition, Archer struck out 233, a total once again good enough for second in the league--this time tied with Chris Sale while trailing only Justin Verlander.

The 2016 season marked the second year of a four-year free agent contract that 34-year old right-hander James Shields signed with the San Diego Padres.  Although Shields had struggled a bit in the first year of the deal--leading the NL in home runs allowed and seeing his ERA+ drop to 95--the signing appeared to be a solid one for San Diego as the veteran led his respective league in games started, pitched over 200 innings for the ninth consecutive season, and finished fifth in the NL with 216 strikeouts.  Prior to signing with San Diego, Shields pitched for the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays, where he had briefly been teammates with Chris Archer during the youngster's rookie year.  Like his former rotation-mate Archer, Shields started 2016 off with a 0-4 record, though with a respectable 3.55 ERA.  On May 7, Shields lost to the New York Mets and suffered the humiliation of serving up fellow pitcher Bartolo Colon's first career home run.  Colon, who was just shy of 43-years old at the time, had just two extra base hits in 246 plate appearances prior to the home run.  Following a no-decision on May 25, Shields owned an impressive 3.06 ERA but with a 2-6 record due mostly in part to lack of run support as San Diego failed to score more than three runs in any of his starts.  On May 31, Shields was rocked for 10 runs in two and two-thirds of an inning in a lopsided 16-4 loss which dropped his record to 2-7 and shot his ERA up to 4.28.  On June 4, Shields was traded to the Chicago White Sox for two other players.

With the trade to Chicago, Shields joined a White Sox team that had unexpectedly led the AL Central for most the season before a seven-game losing streak at the end of May knocked them out of first place.  By acquiring Shields, Chicago hoped the veteran right-hander would boost the White Sox pitching staff and reverse the team's losing trend.  Unfortunately for Chicago, Shields looked a lot more like the pitcher who gave up 10 runs in his last start with San Diego than the dependable veteran they traded for as the righty gave up 7 or more runs in his first three starts for the White Sox--bringing his overall record to 2-9 and ERA up to an ugly 6.28.  Meanwhile, Chicago struggled stay in the AL Central and Wildcard races.

Shields struggled mightily in 2016

Shields sported a sparkling 2.11 ERA over his next 7 starts but poor run support gave him only a 3-3 record during that stretch.  However, Shields proceeded to slump badly, allowing 6 or more runs in each of his first four starts in August to put him at 5-15 with a 5.98 ERA.  By this point, Chicago had fallen several games below .500, making their strong start to the season a distance memory.  Inconsistent pitching by Shields and poor run support by his offense resulted in three more defeats over his next six starts.  This brought Shields' loss total to 18 for the season and put the veteran at risk to lose 20--assuming Chicago would start the righty in his final two scheduled outings.  Fortunately for Shields, he allowed just one run in six innings against his former team, Tampa Bay, in his penultimate start while Chicago's offense did their part to help him avoid joining the dubious 20-loss club with a 7-1 victory over the Rays.  Shields lost his final start to conclude the season with a dreadful 6-19 record and horrendous 5.85 ERA.

Some of Archer's difficulties can be tied back to his 30 home runs allowed--eleven more than his previous career high.  Yet, most of Archer's poor win-loss record can be attributed to his team's feeble offense as the last place Rays provided their young hurler with a paltry run support of just a 3.48 per game, fifth lowest among 74 qualified starters.  In fact, aside from the spike in longballs given up, most of Archer's other peripherals were in-line with previous seasons.  While Archer appears primed for a rebound following his difficult year, Shields' defeat-filled 2016 is much more concerning.  Barely a year removed from starting Game 1 of the 2014 World Series, Shields was arguably the game's worst starting pitcher in 2016.  Among qualified hurlers the righty allowed the most earned runs and home runs, had the highest ERA, FIP, and WHIP, as well as the worst win/loss percentage and ERA+.  Moreover, for the second year in a row, Shields saw a rise in walks and home runs allowed.  Although Shields struggled on the mound much more than his young 19-loss peer Archer, the veteran was also felled by the 3.33 runs per game provided by his team's offense--the lowest run support among all qualified starters.

After coming just one defeat away from joining the dubious 20-loss club, Archer and Shields will be looking to reverse their fortunes in 2017.  A strong rebound season would put Archer back among the top young hurlers in the game while Shields will hope to revive his career and live up to the "Big Game James" nickname he earned as staff ace in Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

Three Sluggers Reach the 40-Home Run Plateau While Driving in Less Than 100 Runs and a Pair of Batters Become the First to Hit 30 Longballs Without Cracking 60 RBI

Three sluggers finished 2016 with 40 HRs but less than 100 RBI

The recent rise in home runs and strikeouts has created an atmosphere which is producing high levels of round-trippers with a surprisingly low number of RBI.  This was never more evident than last season when five sluggers--Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, and Albert Pujols each hit 40 or more longballs but drove in under 100 runs.  Each of those sluggers, save for Pujols, whiffed a minimum of 131 times.  Prior to 2015 the odd combination of reaching the 40-home run plateau without crossing the 100 RBI threshold was only done 16 times by 13 different players and never more than twice in a season.  The growing number of "Three True Outcomes" hitters along with the high strikeout rates of even the game's best overall sluggers is making the odd combination a regular occurrence as three more players--Brian Dozier, Chris Carter, and Todd Frazier--clubbed their way to the 40-home run mark without producing 100 RBI.

Following an unexpected second place finish in the AL Central and run at the AL Wildcard in 2015, the Minnesota Twins took a massive step backwards this season to plummet to 59-103--the worst record in baseball.  Starring for the lowly Twins was their power-hitting second baseman Brian Dozier who finished 2016 with 42 home runs and 99 RBI.  Dozier started the year rotated between first and second in the batting order in April and May, Minnesota then moved the slugger to the heart of the order in June and July, before shifting him back to leadoff for the season's final two months.  Overall, Minnesota started Dozier 73 games at leadoff, 24 games in the number two hole, and 51 times in the third, fourth, or fifth spot in the order.  Dozier blew up after the All-Star break, hitting 28 home runs but he spent almost all of this time at leadoff which significantly reduced his RBI opportunities.  In fact, 27 of Dozier's 42 round-trippers came from the leadoff spot.  Being batted at the top of the order along with Dozier's 138 strikeouts played large roles in the power-hitting keystoner falling shy of 100 RBI.  Going into the final day of the regular season, Dozier looked as though he might reach the century mark in RBI but left oblique soreness kept him out of the lineup and doomed him to finish at 99 RBI.

After three seasons with the Houston Astros, first baseman Chris Carter signed a free agent contract with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Few players epitomize the "Three True Outcomes" nickname better than Carter as the slugger hit .222 while tying Nolan Arenado for the NL lead with 41 home runs, putting up the Senior Circuit's tenth-highest walk total at 76, and dubiously topping the NL in strikeouts with 206.  Carter also tied Arenado for the NL lead with 160 games played.  Carter started 94 games in the five hole in Milwaukee's batting order, along with 52 at clean up.  Milwaukee struggled to a 73-89 with a well below league average 4.14 runs per game.  Carter surged at the end of the season, hitting 11 longballs from September 3-on.  However, Milwaukee's punchless offense, coupled with Carter's "Three True Outcomes" skill set limited the free-swinger to 94 RBI.

Prior to the 2016 season, the Chicago White Sox acquired third baseman Todd Frazier from the Cincinnati Reds in a three-team, seven-player trade.  In four-plus seasons with Cincinnati, Frazier batted .257 while striking out around 125 to 135 times per year.  Frazier hit a personal best 35 home runs in 2015, up from 19 and 29 in 2013 and 2014, respectively.  While Chicago got off to a strong start, Frazier allowed his average to dip below .200 during parts of each of the first three months of the season.  Frazier's power was on display in the season's first half, however, clubbing 25 longballs despite hitting .213.  Frazier added 15 more home runs after the All-Star break while batting a more palatable .240.  Frazier hit his 40th round-tripper and drove in his 98th run on September 28 but proceeded to go 2 for 16 with no RBI and 7 strikeouts in his last four games, leaving him two shy of 100 RBI.  Chicago penciled Frazier's name in at clean up for 57 games, 49 in the five hole, 39 as number six, and 13 times at three.  The White Sox finished the year with a 78-84 record with a below average 4.23 runs per game.  After hovering around the Mendoza line during the first half of the season, Frazier settled for a career low .225 along with a career worst 163 strikeouts.  However, Frazier's 40 home runs, 98 RBI, and 64 walks were career highs.  Nevertheless, the dip in batting average and jump in strikeouts are cause for concern as Frazier is evolving more and more into a "Three True Outcomes" hitter who regularly puts up high home run marks tempered by low RBI totals.

The 2016 season marked the first time a hitter reached 30 home runs without driving in 60 runs.  The simultaneous rise in home runs and strikeouts undoubtedly played a role in this odd combination finally being realized by not one but two hitters.

Granderson had just 59 RBI despite 30 HR in 2016

Throughout his career, New York Mets rightfielder Curtis Granderson has bordered on being a "Three True Outcomes" hitter, often balancing low batting averages and high strikeout rates with solid home run totals and a decent number of walks.  What is unique about Granderson is his skill set also includes speed which has resulted in the perpetually-smiling rightfielder seeing the bulk of his at bats come in the leadoff role.  The Mets primarily batted Granderson at the top of the order for the first three months of the 2016 season over which time the speedy slugger hit a pedestrian .228 with just 22 RBI despite 13 home runs.  The Mets moved Granderson to second in the order in July before splitting him between leadoff, second, fifth, and sixth in August.  Going into September, Granderson's average was down to .223 with 22 longballs and a minuscule 38 RBI.  Oddly, New York then wrote Granderson's name into the line up as clean up for the bulk of the final month of the season despite the slugger having finished with single digit RBI totals in each of the first five months of the season.  Granderson proceeded to hit .302 with 8 round-trippers and 21 RBI over the balance of the season.  Granderson finished 2016 with 30 home runs but failed to even average two RBI per longball as he drove in only 59 runs.  Granderson drew 74 walks in 2016 but struck out 130 times as his late surge raised his average to .237 for the year.  As a team, the Mets ranked 2nd in the NL with 218 home runs yet finished tied for 11th with 671 runs scored at just a 4.14 per game clip while their .246 average was good for only 12th.  Despite the uneven offense New York finished 87-75 and picked up home field advantage for the NL Wildcard game they would ultimately lose to the San Francisco Giants.

Gyorko also had a 30 HR/sub-60 RBI campaign in 2016

Acquired in return for outfielder Jon Jay from the San Diego Padres prior to the 2016 season, Jedd Gyorko served as a jack-of-all-trades for the St. Louis Cardinals, splitting his time between the four infield positions during his first year with the Redbirds.  Gyorko served as a bench player during the first half of the season, making his way into only 58 of 88 games, just 35 of which were as a starter.  Gyorko hit 7 home runs with 21 RBI and a .242 batting average over 166 plate appearances prior to the All-Star break.  Gyorko's bat heated up in July and St. Louis began playing the infielder on a regular basis, enlisting him in 70 of 74 games after the Midsummer Classic--65 as a starter.  Gyorko showcased his power in the second half, drilling 23 round-trippers but driving in just 38 runs with a .243 average in 272 plate appearances.  Gyorko's strong hitting after the Mid-Summer Classic helped the Cardinals stay in the NL Wildcard hunt, though their 86-76 record left them one win shy of making the postseason.  St. Louis batted Gyorko most frequently in the number seven spot while most of his other plate appearances were split between the two and the six holes.  Gyorko finished 2016 with a mirror image of Granderson's 30 home run and 59 RBI totals, however, the Cardinals infielder produced those numbers over just 438 plate appearances compared to the Mets outfielder's 633.  Gyorko batted .243 for the season and struck out 96 times while drawing just 37 walks.  Gyorko's inability to put the ball in play minimized his RBI totals but his low run producing numbers can also be traced back to his lack of extra base hits not of the longball variety as the slugger hit just 9 doubles and 1 triple.

The simultaneous rise in home runs and strikeouts will likely play host to more 40 home run/less than 100 RBI seasons as well as never before seen combinations such as the 30 longball/sub-60 RBI campaigns turned in by Granderson and Gyorko.

Chase Utley Becomes the Ninth Hitter to Qualify for the Batting Title and Finish the Season Without Grounding into a Double Play

Chase Utley ended the 2015 season shrouded in controversy after a hard takeout slide by the Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman broke the leg of New York Mets shortstop Rubén Tejeda on a critical play during Game 2 of the NLCS.  Utley's slide was undoubtedly late and resulted in a rule change by the MLB as well as a two-game suspension which he never served as it was successfully appealed by the MLBPA.  However, the forceful slide should not have been a surprise to anyone who had watched Utley play--least of all Tejeda, who had been bowled over by the hard-nosed keystoner in a similar play during the shortstop's rookie year in 2010.  Yet, the controversy followed Utley into 2016, so it was somewhat ironic that the veteran would become just the ninth hitter to go an entire season without grounding into a double play while garnering enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

Utley's 2016 was just the ninth zero GDP season in MLB history

Grounding into double plays has only been tracked by the NL since 1933 and AL since 1939.  Nevertheless, going an entire campaign without being the victim of a twin-killing while amassing enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title is a rare feat only accomplished by eight other hitters prior to Utley--George Watkins, Pete Reiser, Dick McAuliffe, Rob Deer, Rickey Henderson, Ray Lankford, Otis Nixon, and Craig Biggio--and never by the same player twice.  However, a few of the players to join this no double plays club did so under special circumstances that almost make their membership worthy of an asterisk.  For example, the first member of the club, Watkins, turned the trick in 1934 with just 329 plate appearances for the season as only 100 games played were required to qualify for the batting title at the time.  In addition, Henderson, Lankford, and Nixon each accomplished the feat in 1994 when the baseball strike wiped out nearly the last third of the season.  Also, Augie Galan is sometimes credited with going the entire 1935 campaign without grounding into a double play, however, according to Retrosheet's game logs from that season, the slugger did indeed ground into a twin-kill on June 25 of that year.

After acquiring Utley from the Philadelphia Phillies last August, the defending NL West champion Dodgers re-signed the 37-year old Pasadena native for 2016.  Following a difficult 2015 in which Utley was plagued by an ankle injury and hit a career low .212, it appeared the veteran's future in the game may have been as a role player coming off the bench.  However, Los Angeles not only installed Utley as the team's starting second baseman but also regularly batted the keystoner at leadoff.  The 2016 season represented the first time Utley had spent the majority of a season hitting in the top spot of the order as the veteran had batted primarily out of the three-hole throughout his career.

Utley has always been difficult to double up and the move to the front of the line up set the stage for his double-play-free campaign as leadoff hitters are more likely to accomplish the feat than any other spot in the batting order because they are guaranteed at least one plate appearance with no runners on base.  Moreover, following their initial plate appearance, leadoff hitters spend the rest of the game batting behind the weakest hitters in the line up who are often asked to sacrifice when there is a runner on first base.  In fact, six of the nine hitters to join the no double plays club--McAuliffe, Henderson, Lankford, Nixon, Biggio, and Utley--were primarily batted leadoff in the season of their achievement.  By the same token, hitters batted in the heart of the order--as Utley had been during most of his career--are much less likely to complete a season without grounding into a double play as a higher majority of their plate appearances come with runners on base.  In fact, only Reiser was able to turn the trick while regularly batting in the heart of the order as he was hit out of the three hole.  Interestingly, the no double plays club's other two hitters, Watkins and Deer, regularly batted sixth, though Deer also saw a fair share of his plate appearances come from the five and seven spots along with a few from the eight hole.  Indeed, Reiser had, by far, the most plate appearances in which there was an opportunity to ground into a double play with 148, a far cry ahead of the next closest of Deer at 87, while Utley checked in with 61.  In 2016, the average major league hitter grounded into a double play just under eleven percent of the time that they came up with the opportunity to do so, meaning a hitter with Utley's 61 double play opportunities on average would have grounded into a twin-kill six or seven times.  At age 37, Utley became the oldest player to join the no double plays club.

Aside from going the whole season without being the victim of a twin-killing, Utley's season was also noteworthy for memorable trips to New York and Philadelphia.  Utley was public enemy number one against the Mets on May 27 in his first game back at Citi Field since the controversial 2015 NLCS.  Utley was unmercifully booed by the angry New York fans but quietly went about his business and put in a yeoman's work.  Utley came up with two out and the bases loaded in the top of the ninth and rather than satisfy the Mets fanbase by being the final out, the pesky veteran cleared the bases with a double to right field off New York closer Jeurys Familia to tie the game.  However, New York was able to strike last as Curtis Granderson ended the game with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth to win the game.  Tensions continued to run high the following night as Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard was ejected for throwing a fastball behind Utley in the top of the third.  Once again Utley did not play into the emotions as the veteran broke a scoreless tie in the six with a solo home run.  Utley then put an exclamation point on the game with a grand slam in his next at bat as Los Angeles beat New York 9-1 on the strength of the veteran's five RBI.

Utley made a memorable return to Philadelphia in 2016

Utley was greeted by a much different reception on August 16, as he received a hero's welcome in Philadelphia and was cheered by the fans as well as applauded by his former Phillies teammates in his first game at Citizens Bank Park as a visiting player.  Once again the center of attention, though for different reasons than his return to New York, Utley similarly rose to the occasion with a solo home run in the top of the fifth to extend Los Angeles' lead to 3-1.  Utley then rewarded his loyal Philadelphia fans with his second grand slam of the season in the seventh to cap a huge 5-RBI game for the veteran in a 15-5 win.

Utley's unforgivingly hard style of play has won him the admiration of some, the disdain of others, resulted in a rule change, come at the expense of injuries--to himself and others, all while being the driving force behind one of the most underrated players of this generation.  Utley's 2016 ledger of 14 home runs, 52 RBI, .252 batting average, and 2.0 WAR was far from a career year for the second baseman but it represented a critical rebound campaign, following a horrid, injury-plagued 2015.  Moreover, Utley was able to establish himself as valuable veteran presence for the NL West champion Dodgers.  Aside from going the whole season without being doubled up, Utley's 2016 was also memorable for the second baseman's rising to the occasion with grand slams when he was the center of attention in New York and Philadelphia.  Despite his excellent career, Utley remains a longshot for the Hall of Fame, as he still lacks the counting stats that many voters place a premium on when filling out their ballots.  However, Utley was able to reach the mini-milestones of 1000 runs scored and 250 home runs in 2016.  In addition, Utley is poised to cross the 1000 RBI mark in 2017.  Moreover, if Utley stays healthy and is able hold down a starting job for the next few seasons, 2,000 hits, 300 home runs, and 70 WAR are not out of the question for the hard-nosed keystoner.  Achieving these milestones would greatly strengthen Utley's Hall of Fame case.

----by John Tuberty

Sources:  Baseball Reference, Baseball Reference Play Index, MLB.com, ESPN, New York Post, USA Today, Retrosheet

Photo credit:  2016 Topps Update Carlos Beltrán, 2016 Topps Series 2 Chris Archer, 2016 Topps Stadium Club James Shields, 2016 Bowman Brian Dozier, 2016 Topps Heritage Chris Carter, 2016 Topps Archives Todd Frazier, 2016 Topps Heritage Curtis Granderson, 2016 Topps Heritage Jedd Gyorko, 2015 Topps Bunt Digital Chase Utley, 2016 Topps Now Chase Utley

Other articles by Tubbs Baseball Blog:
Carlos Beltrán, 400 Home Runs, 2,500 Hits, and The Hall of Fame

Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, and Albert Pujols Combine to Set the Major League Record For Most Players to Finish a Season With 40 or More Home Runs and Less Than 100 RBIs

Dwight Evans' Strong Sabermetric Statistics Underscore His Overlooked Hall of Fame Case

Seven Changes that Would Improve the Era Committee Hall of Fame Election Process

For player candidates who are no longer eligible for the BBWAA ballot, the Era Committee provides another opportunity to be voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  The Era Committee also represents the only avenue for non-player candidates such as executives, managers, umpires, and pioneers to gain entry into Cooperstown.  The Era Committee is made up of three separate 16-member sub-committees, tasked with judging candidates from a specific era with the Expansion Era in charge of the time period after 1972, the Golden Era covering 1947 to 1972, and the Pre-Integration Era representing the origins of the game to 1946.  Each Era sub-committee meets once every three years in a rotating cycle with elections held in early December.  Thus far, each sub-committee has convened twice with the Expansion Era voting in 2010 and 2013, the Golden Era voting in 2011 and 2014, and the Pre-Integration Era voting in 2012 and 2015.  However, in its short history the Era Committee process has drawn a fair share of criticism for a variety of reasons and with December's Pre-Integration Era vote representing two full cycles under the current format it is likely that the Hall of Fame board members will review and possibly modify to the system.  The following are seven changes that would improve the Era Committee election process:


1.  Hold separate elections for player and non-player candidates.

Below are the results from the six Era Committee elections with player candidates in black, non-player candidates in red, and candidates voted into the Hall of Fame italicized:

Dec '10			Dec '11			Dec '12
Exp Era	Vote %		Golden Era	Vote %		Pre Int Era	Vote %
Gillick	81.3%		Santo	93.8%		O'Day	93.8%
Miller	68.8%		Kaat	62.5%		Ruppert	93.8%
Concepcion	50.0%		Hodges	56.3%		White	87.5%
Blue	<50.0%		Minoso	56.3%		Dahlen	62.5%
Garvey	<50.0%		Oliva	50.0%		Breadon	<25.0%
Guidry	<50.0%		Bavasi	<18.8%		Ferrell	<25.0%
John	<50.0%		Boyer	<18.8%		Marion	<25.0%
Martin	<50.0%		Finley	<18.8%		Mullane	<25.0%
Oliver	<50.0%		Reynolds	<18.8%		Reach	<25.0%
Simmons	<50.0%		Tiant	<18.8%		Walters	<25.0%
Staub	<50.0%
Steinbrenner	<50.0%
Dec '13			Dec '14			Dec '15
Exp Era	Vote %		Golden Era	Vote %		Pre Int Era	Vote %
Cox	100%		Allen	68.8%		Adams	62.5%
LaRussa	100%		Oliva	68.8%		Dahlen	50.0%
Torre	100%		Kaat	62.5%		Stovey	50.0%
Concepcion	<43.8%		Wills	56.3%		Breadon	<25.0%
Garvey	<43.8%		Minoso	50.0%		Ferrell	<25.0%
John	<43.8%		Boyer	<18.8%		Herrmann	<25.0%
Martin	<43.8%		Hodges	<18.8%		Marion	<25.0%
Miller	<43.8%		Howsam	<18.8%		McCormick	<25.0%
Parker	<43.8%		Pierce	<18.8%		von der Ahe	<25.0%
Quisenberry	<43.8%		Tiant	<18.8%		Walters	<25.0%
Simmons	<43.8%
Steinbrenner	<43.8%

Despite having contributions to the game that are very difficult to measure against each other, player and non-player candidates are evaluated alongside one another on a composite ballot by the Era Committee.  Through six elections the Era Committee has voted in six non-player candidates but only two player candidates.  The presence of non-player candidates appears to have particularly affected the player candidates from the Expansion Era as they have to contend with newly eligible non-player candidates who have never appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot before.  In 2010, first-time candidate Pat Gillick, an executive, was voted in on the initial Expansion Era ballot while the managerial trio of Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre--respectively the third, fourth, and fifth winningest managers in baseball history--were unanimously elected on their first try in 2013.  Player candidates have truly been an afterthought on the Expansion Era ballot, as only Dave Concepcion has gained fifty percent of the vote.  By contrast, few non-player candidates have appeared on the Golden Era ballot as the strongest non-player candidates from that particular era such as Walter Alston, Al López, and Bill Veeck were long ago elected by the Veterans Committee, the predecessor to the Era Committee.  As a result, the Golden Era elections have been dominated by player candidates with Ron Santo gaining entry into Cooperstown and Dick Allen, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Minnie Miñoso, Gil Hodges, and Maury Wills each garnering at least fifty percent of the vote in one or both of the elections.

Kaat & John have drawn vastly different totals on the Era ballots

The disadvantage created by having Expansion Era player candidates share the ballot with their non-player peers is underscored by the disparity in vote totals between Jim Kaat and Tommy John.  Kaat and John have comparable career totals in wins, ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts.  Moreover, Kaat and John are the number one most similar pitcher for each other on Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores and also garnered about the same amount of support from voters while they were eligible for the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.  Kaat's and John's lengthy careers even overlapped for more than two decades.  However, because John's career started just a few seasons after Kaat's, he is eligible for the Expansion Era ballot while his colleague's Hall of Fame case falls under the Golden Era Committee's jurisdiction.  John has been a non-factor on the Expansion Era ballot with his support ambiguously described as receiving "less than eight votes" in 2010 and "fewer than six votes" in 2013.  By contrast, Kaat has come just two marks shy of election with 62.5% of the vote on each of his appearances on the Golden Era ballot.  Had John not appeared on ballots shared with first-time non-player candidates, it is likely he would have gained support similar to Kaat's and may have even been elected.

	W	L	W-L%	ERA	IP	SO
Kaat	283	237	0.544	3.45	4530.1	2461
John	288	231	0.555	3.34	4710.1	2245

Having player and non-player candidates appear on the same ballot is also creating a backlog of candidates from the Expansion Era who have either been overlooked for one of the previous ballots or are slated to become eligible for the next ballot.  While the time periods for the Pre-Integration and Golden Eras are fixed, the Expansion Era adds three years’ worth of new candidates to consider for each election.  Thus far, limited ballot space caused by having players and non-players on the same ballot has played a role in the overlooking of impressive candidates such as Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, and Keith Hernandez who have yet to appear on an Expansion Era ballot.  What's more, with the Hall of Fame reducing the maximum number of years a candidate is eligible on BBWAA ballot from 15 to 10, player candidates who were previously eligible for the Era ballot after being retired 21 seasons are now eligible after just 16--meaning that eight years’ worth of new candidates including Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Jack Morris, and Lou Whitaker will each become eligible for this fall's Expansion Era ballot.  Having player and non-player candidates on separate ballots would create more space for worthy candidates--particularly those from the Expansion Era--to appear on their respective ballot and reduce the growing backlog.  Increased ballot space would also allow for intriguing non-player candidates such as Johnny Sain, Dave Duncan, and Leo Mazzone--each of whom made their mark as pitching coaches--to make their way onto their respective Era Committee ballot.

Revising the voting process and holding separate elections for players and non-players would not be an unprecedented move by the Hall of Fame.  In fact, from 2003 to 2009, the Hall of Fame ran several Veterans Committee elections with player and non-player candidates on separate ballots.


2.  Have more continuity in the voting body.

Each Era Committee ballot is voted on by a 16-member electorate comprised of Hall of Fame players, Hall of Fame managers, front office executives, veteran baseball writers, and historians.  One odd characteristic of the 16-member Era Committee electorates is the lack of continuity in the voting body and how rarely the same voters are retained to sit on the same sub-committee.  For example, each of the 16-member electorates for the Expansion Era Committee's 2013 and Golden Era Committee's 2014 ballots included only four repeat voters from their respective 2010 and 2011 elections.  Most recently, the Pre-Integration Era Committee brought back just nine returning voters from their 2012 ballot for 2015's election.  In stark contrast to the Era Committee, the BBWAA retains almost the exact same voting body for their Hall of Fame ballot each year.  Throughout the history of BBWAA voting, the top holdovers from previous elections have generally built momentum and gained more support each year until ultimately being elected.  Some recent examples of this pattern have been the elections of Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, and Barry Larkin in which each candidate's increasing support saw them make it into Cooperstown after just a few ballots.  Last year, the Hall of Fame made its biggest change to the BBWAA's electorate with the elimination of voters who have not actively covered the game in more than 10 years.  Yet, even this change in the electorate was miniscule in comparison to the ones on each Era sub-committee.  This lack of continuity in the voting bodies of the Era sub-committees has likely played a role in the Golden and Pre-Integration Era Committee's failure to vote any candidate in on their most recent elections.

Changes in the electorate affected Hodges' vote total

For their initial 2011 election the Golden Era Committee voted in Ron Santo (93.8%) and had four candidates collect at least 50% of the vote--Jim Kaat (62.5%), Gil Hodges (56.3%), Minnie Miñoso (56.3%), and Tony Oliva (50%).  With Santo no longer on the ballot it appeared that one or more of the holdovers would pick up the extra support for the 2014 ballot and be voted in. However, just a quarter of the Golden Era Committee's 2011 electorate was retained for 2014, with many of the older voters such as Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson, Billy Williams, Juan Marichal, and Tommy Lasorda being replaced by younger voters like Rod Carew, Joe Morgan, Ozzie Smith, Ferguson Jenkins, and Pat Gillick.  The resulting outcome saw holdover Oliva and newcomer Dick Allen--two younger candidates whose career peaks came towards the latter part of the Golden Era--vault to the top of the ballot with each coming frustratingly close to being voted in at 68.8%, a single tally shy of a bronze plaque in Cooperstown.  Kaat, the top holdover from the 2011 ballot, stagnated at 62.5% as another newcomer, Maury Wills garnered 56.3%.  While the younger electorate seemed to aid Oliva and Allen, the opposite was true for Miñoso and Hodges--two of the more elder candidates on the ballot who made their mark towards the beginning on the Golden Era.  Still alive at the time of the vote, the 89-year old Miñoso unexpectedly saw his vote percentage slip back to 50%.  More shocking though was the absolute free fall in support for Hodges who plummeted to below 25% after regularly drawing over 50% during his time on the BBWAA and Veterans Committee ballots, in addition to the 56.3% he picked up on the 2011 Golden Era ballot.  The strong showings for newcomers Allen and Wills were somewhat surprising since each had historically been less popular Hall of Fame candidates with BBWAA and Veterans Committee voters than most of the top holdovers from 2011 Golden Era ballot.

Although the overhaul in the Pre-Integration Era Committee's voting body between elections was not nearly as drastic as the Expansion and Golden Era Committees’, the resulting outcome of a second straight election with no candidate being voted in underscored the need for continuity in the sub-committees.  For their initial 2012 election, the Pre-Integration Era Committee easily voted in three candidates--Jacob Ruppert (93.8%), Hank O'Day (93.8%), and Deacon White (87.5%).  The Pre-Integration Era Committee also came close to voting in a fourth candidate as Bill Dahlen garnered 62.5%--just two marks shy of the Hall of Fame.  Aside from Ruppert, O'Day, White, and Dahlen, no other candidate collected more than 18.8%.  As the only strong holdover from the 2012 ballot, Dahlen seemed to be a lock to make it to Cooperstown on the 2015 vote as he was poised to benefit from the departures of Ruppert, O'Day, and White.  However, in a stunning twist, Dahlen not only fell short of election on the 2015 ballot but actually lost support--dropping down to 50%.  With barely half of the Pre-Integration Era's 2012 electorate retained for 2015, the changes in the voting body had undoubtedly affected Dahlen's support.  Newcomer to the ballot Doc Adams came closest to being voted in with 62.5% while another newcomer, Harry Stovey, matched Dahlen's 50% total.  No other candidate garnered more than 18.8%.  Unlike in 2012, the 2015 Pre-Integration Era Committee electorate seemed uninspired to vote in candidates.  In fact, the top-four finishing candidates in the 2012 election amassed 54 votes, compared to just 29 for the top-four from the 2015 election.

For most of its time as a voting body, the Veterans Committee used a 15-member electorate similar to that of the Era Committee made up of Hall of Fame players, managers, executives, and sportswriters.  However, like the BBWAA, the Veterans Committee electorate rarely changed between elections as voters were selected by the Hall of Fame for multi-year terms and often served on the panel for decades.  Although the BBWAA and Veterans Committee used vastly different voting formats, continuity was a hallmark in each of their electorates, as was the ability to regularly vote in candidates.  By contrast, the Era Committee--which massively overhauls each sub-committee between elections--has yielded no Hall of Fame inductees in their past two elections.  Undoubtedly, strong newcomers to the ballot affect the support of the top holdovers.  However, by having more continuity in the voting body, Era Committee elections would be less haphazard and more closely reflect BBWAA elections where strong holdover candidates build momentum and generally increase support from one election to another until ultimately being voted in.


3.  Lessen the BBWAA's influence over the Era Committee by having a greater presence of non-BBWAA sabermetricians and historians on the Historical Overview Committee screening panel and Era Committee voting body.

While the Era Committee provides an alternate path to the Hall of Fame for candidates not eligible for the BBWAA ballot, the BBWAA itself still carries a fair amount of influence over the Era Committee.  For instance, eligible candidates from each Era sub-committee are screened by the BBWAA-appointed Historical Overview Committee which makes the final selections for each ballot.  The Historical Overview Committee is a small screening panel of no more than 9 to 12 representatives--each of whom are veteran BBWAA members.  The Hall of Fame would benefit from expanding the Historical Overview Committee from solely veteran BBWAA members to include sabermetricians like Bill James, Total Baseball publisher Pete Palmer, and Baseball Reference founder Sean Forman as well as historians such as Official Major League Baseball Historian John Thorn and David S. Neft, the driving force behind the groundbreaking publishing of The Baseball Encyclopedia.  However, it is doubtful the Hall of Fame will alter the Historical Overview Committee, as unlike the Era sub-committee voting bodies--which are almost completely overhauled after each election--the Historical Overview Committee rarely changes its members.  In fact, only 15 representatives have served on the Historical Overview Committee, which actually predates the Era Committee as it acted as the screening committee for the last several Veterans Committee ballots.  Moreover, seven of the most recent 11-member Historical Overview Committee, served on the initial Historical Overview Committee in 2003.

Another example of the BBWAA's influence within the Era Committee is the Hall of Fame's use of BBWAA members as voters on the Era Committee ballots.  The Hall of Fame often lists these BBWAA members as "veteran media members" or classifies them as "historians."  In six Era Committee elections, 31 of the 96 voting panel spots have been occupied by one these "veteran media members" or "historians."  Twenty-six of those 31 spots were held by BBWAA members--11 of which had also served on the Historical Overview Committee that screened the same ballot they voted on.  By contrast, only four voting spots were given to non-BBWAA historians.  Each of those four spots given to non-BBWAA historians were part of the Pre-Integration Era Committee's electorate with Peter Morris and Tom Simon voting on the initial Pre-Integration Era ballot while Morris again voted on the most recent Pre-Integration Era ballot along with Tim Wendel.  Morris, the author of "Catcher:  How the Man Behind the Plate Became an American Folk Hero" along with other books about the early days of baseball, was likely instrumental to the long overdue election of pioneer catcher Deacon White on the initial Pre-Integration Era ballot.  However, a non-BBWAA historian has yet to serve on the Expansion Era or Golden Era Committees electorates.

Advanced statistics and sabermetrics have started to find their way into BBWAA voting and have a greater presence in the Hall of Fame conversation as younger writers become eligible to vote, while older/inactive writers lose their eligibility.  However, the Hall of Fame selects the voters for Era Committees and allows the BBWAA to appoint the Historical Overview Committee.  Moreover, the Hall of Fame is often slow to change so it may be some time before a sabermetrician like Bill James, Pete Palmer, or Sean Forman sits on one of its panels. Besides, the Hall of Fame may feel that Steve Hirdt, an active BBWAA member and executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau, fills both the historian and sabermetrician roles.  Hirdt has served on each Historical Overview Committee since their initial meeting in 2003.  In addition, the Hall of Fame has selected Hirdt to vote on each of the last four Era Committee ballots.  And, while Hirdt may be viewed as a statistical guru, his focus appears to be more old school and traditional rather than new school and analytical as this quote from a December 2013 San Francisco Chronicle article by fellow Expansion Era Committee voter/"historian" Bruce Jenkins suggests:

"What I realized in Orlando, both in informal settings and the three-hour meeting, is that everyone in the room spoke the same language, far removed from the complex lingo of new-age stat devotees.  At one point, someone asked if it was necessary to bring WAR, a trendy new stat, into any discussion.  There was a bit of mumbling, mostly silence, and it never came up again.

No, this was a soundtrack from the game I first covered in the early '70s, with the now-defunct Santa Monica Outlook, and as a beat writer for the Chronicle (1977 through '89, when I was given a column).  Within that realm, players, managers and writers treated wins, RBIs, batting average and ERA as invaluable measuring sticks - and never really felt compelled to adjust.  These categories are widely ridiculed by the modern-day faction known as "stat geeks," many of whom have decided that old-school thought is a bunch of nonsense and that they are the true geniuses of baseball evaluation.

Whatever.  I certainly didn't feel dated or out of touch hashing out a man's Hall of Fame credentials with (Frank) Robinson, (Carlton) Fisk, (Whitey) Herzog or anyone else involved.  I'm sure the brilliant Hirdt could have backed his opinions with WAR, WHIP or any other statistical measure known to man, but he spoke of traditional numbers and criteria of considerable weight: character, temperament, clutch performance and other intangibles, such as how it felt to witness the greats, and how they were viewed by other icons of the game."


4.  Change the name of the Pre-Integration Era and reopen the book on Negro and pre-Negro League candidates.

In addition to drawing criticism for its inability to elect candidates, the Era Committee has also been the subject of negative publicity for the use of the Pre-Integration Era name to identify the sub-committee which judges candidates from the origins of baseball to 1946--using Jackie Robinson's breaking of the color barrier as its end date.  The Pre-Integration Era name and time period generated some unfavorable press during the initial election for the sub-committee back in 2012.  However, the public outcry became much louder and gained more traction in the weeks prior to the most recent Pre-Integration Era election last fall with critics using phrases such as the "Segregation Era" and the "Jim Crow Era", to attack the Pre-Integration Era name.  This negative publicity likely played a role in the Pre-Integration Era Committee's failure to vote in a single candidate as the resulting controversy may have shifted attention away from deserving candidates such as Doc Adams, Harry Stovey, and Bill Dahlen and possibly even made voters subconsciously feel uncomfortable voting in a candidate from the Pre-Integration Era ballot.  This was in stark contrast to the Pre-Integration Era's initial election, three years earlier, in which trio of candidates--Deacon White, Jacob Ruppert, and Hank O'Day--were voted into the Hall of Fame.

In a recent interview with Graham Womack of the Sporting News, Hall of Fame president Jeff Idelson defended the Pre-Integration Era name when asked if there had been any thought to changing it:
"I don’t think so.  I’m not quite sure why it’s attacked. Certainly, the Hall of Fame (wants) to be inclusive. It’s defined by the dates, which are up to 1946.  Integration occurred in 1947.  The name of the committee is meant to define that it was the era before integration, before the game became a lot better and that the players, managers, umpires, and executives being considered were in a less than even playing field because the game wasn’t integrated."

O'Neil last appeared on a HOF ballot in 2006

The Hall of Fame has also drawn its share of criticism for not including Negro and pre-Negro League candidates whose careers were affected by the color barrier for consideration on the Pre-Integration Era ballot.  The Hall of Fame most recently considered candidates from this category in a 2006 special election by the Committee on African-American Baseball.  Under special rules, the Committee voted in 17 candidates from a final ballot of 39.  However, the only two candidates still living at the time of the election--Buck O'Neil and Minnie Miñoso--were not among those 17 electees.  Each of these omissions were controversial, particularly that of O'Neil who was largely viewed as the voice of the Negro Leagues.  O'Neil had also served as a Veterans Committee voter for two decades and was the voting body's pointman when it separately considered Negro League candidates in special elections from 1995 to 2001.  Following the 2006 election, the Hall of Fame closed the book on Negro League and pre-Negro League candidates with no future elections planned unless warranted by new research.  Miñoso, who spent three seasons in the Negro Leagues prior to starting a lengthy career in the Major Leagues, saw his Hall of Fame case reconsidered when he appeared on the Golden Era ballot in 2011 and 2014, drawing 56.3% and 50%, respectively.  O'Neil, on the other hand, has yet to appear on another Hall of Fame ballot since the special 2006 ballot and his ineligibility remains a controversial topic.

In the same Sporting News interview, Idelson responded to a question about allowing Negro and pre-Negro League candidates to appear on the Pre-Integration Era ballot:
"No, because in 2006 we had a special Negro Leagues election… It was 17 contributors in the Negro Leagues who were elected in 2006, and at that time, we indicated that that would be the final election for those who performed in the Negro Leagues unless new research came out that would warrant another look.  We felt that the number of candidates eligible, whether they be players, managers, umpires, or executives, had been reviewed to the point where the top echelon had earned election, and the Negro Leagues research community endorsed that at the time.  That’s why you had an election of 17."

Idelson also commented about O'Neil's failure to be voted into the Hall of Fame in 2006 by the Committee on African-American Baseball, while also pointing out the institution's efforts to honor him:
"The fact that he (didn’t earn) election I think stunned a lot of people.  A lot of people were curious as to why he didn’t earn election.  The committee went by what they felt were the right criteria, and they didn’t feel that he had enough for election, and we were comfortable with the results.  However, given Buck’s stature in the baseball community, we felt he needed to be recognized in some way, which is why we developed the Buck O’Neil Award.  He is the only person inside the museum at Cooperstown that has a life-sized bronze statue and an award named specifically for himself."  Idelson went onto to state "that if new research came out that shed light and called for another Negro Leagues election — you wouldn’t do it for one person, but for the Negro Leagues — I’m sure he (O'Neil) could be considered again."

The Hall of Fame has several end points that it could use to bookend its earliest era instead of the breaking of the color barrier.  One particularly good alternative would be to use the advent of expansion in 1961.  By changing the sub-committee's end date to 1960, the Hall of Fame would be able to eliminate the controversy of the Pre-Integration Era name by rechristening it the Pre-Expansion Era.  Moving the sub-committee's end point to 1960 would shift a few of the older candidates such as Gil Hodges, Minnie Miñoso, Billy Pierce, and Ken Boyer from the Golden Era to the Pre-Expansion Era.  Yet, this change may actually help these candidates as Pierce and Boyer struggled to garner votes on the Golden Era ballot while Hodges and Miñoso lost support between elections as the younger electorate from the most recent vote favored candidates from the latter part of the Golden Era.  However, changing the time periods of one era would necessitate the altering of the other eras.  It would be easy to redefine those eras based on expansion--the Golden Era could rename itself the First Expansion Era and cover 1961-1976 while the Expansion could be redubbed the Second Expansion Era and be in charge of 1977 onwards.  Moreover, years from now the Hall of Fame could define eras based on postseason structure with the Divisional Era encompassing 1969 to 1993 and the Wildcard Era taking over from 1994 on.

The Hall of Fame could also put together a special sub-committee that meets on a semi-regular basis to vote on Negro and pre-Negro League candidates.  This would not be an unprecedented move by the Hall of Fame as the institution set up the Committee on Negro Baseball, which met annually from 1971 to 1977 and elected some of the most recognizable figures from the Negro Leagues including Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson.  The Hall of Fame later held special elections for Negro League candidates under the Veterans Committee each year from 1995 to 2001 before putting together the Committee on African-American Baseball which held its sole election in 2006.  Setting up a special sub-committee for Negro and pre-Negro League candidates would allow for not only O'Neil's Hall of Fame case to be revisited but also that of John Donaldson, Bud Fowler, Spottswood Poles, Quincy Trouppe and many others who have been mentioned as overlooked Hall of Fame candidates.  Having a special ballot for Negro and pre-Negro League candidates would, at the very least, bring more attention to these candidates’ accomplishments.  It has been a decade since the last election for Negro and pre-Negro league candidates and continued research in this field as well as the tireless work of gathering Negro League statistics by Seamheads make this a logical step for the Hall of Fame to take.


5.  Hold more elections for candidates from the Golden and Expansion Eras.

Another criticism of the Era Committee process is that it holds the same number of elections for candidates from the Pre-Integration Era as it does for those from the Golden and Expansion Eras.  Under the current format, each of the sub-committees meet in a rotating cycle, once every three years.  The Pre-Integration Era Committee has yet to have a living candidate appear on its ballot, as nearly all of the possible nominees from that time period are deceased.  By contrast, most of the candidates who have been nominated for the Golden and Expansion Eras are living but as these candidates advance in age, the window to induct them while they are still alive is closing.

During most of its time as a voting body, the Veterans Committee held yearly elections in which eligible candidates from all eras shared the same ballot.  One of the benefits of the Era Committee format is that candidates are only evaluated alongside their peers from the same era.  However, a significant drawback to this system is that holdovers from the previous election have to wait three years before their respective sub-committee reconvenes.  The three year wait between elections is excruciatingly long for candidates from the Golden Era as they are running out of time to be elected while they are still alive to enjoy the honor.  Sadly, the only candidate to be elected by the Golden Era Committee, Ron Santo, passed away from complications of bladder cancer just a year before being voted into Cooperstown on the 2011 ballot.  Unfortunately, two of the candidates from the most recent Golden Era ballot, Minnie Miñoso and Billy Pierce, have passed away since the December 2014 vote.  Moreover, each of the five living candidates from the 2014 ballot are well into their seventies, with Dick Allen the youngest at 74 and 83-year old Maury Wills the eldest.

While many of candidates from the Pre-Integration and Golden Eras were eligible on multiple Veterans Committee ballots, most of the Expansion Era candidates have only been eligible in the limited history of the Era Committee.  Due to the rotating three year cycle, candidates from the Expansion Era have not received the same opportunities as candidates who were eligible through the Veterans Committee--which met on an annual or biennial basis.  Also, with several strong candidates such as Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, and Keith Hernandez overlooked for the Expansion Era ballot thus far and changes in BBWAA voting making it so eight years’ worth of new candidates are eligible for the this fall's ballot, there is a growing backlog of candidates who have yet to appear on the ballot.  What's more, the candidates from the Expansion Era are also getting up there in age as 65-year old Dave Parker is the youngest to have appeared on the sub-committee's ballot.

The Hall of Fame should keep the Era Committee practice of evaluating candidates in sub-committees based on era but would be best served to remove the Pre-Integration Era from the triennial rotation and place more focus on the Golden and Expansion Eras where it can honor living candidates.  However, the Hall of Fame should not abandon holding elections for the Pre-Integration Era altogether but instead move the sub-committee into a semi-regular rotation and meet once per decade.  Removing the Pre-Integration Era from the triennial rotation would allow the Era Committee to hold biennial elections for the Golden and Expansion Eras or even go as far as to run simultaneously elections for those two sub-committees on separate ballots.  Holding more elections for the Golden Era would give aging candidates a better shot to be voted into Cooperstown while they are still alive, as well as clear what is becoming a growing backlog for the Expansion Era due to the three year wait between elections.


6.  Hold a run-off election when no candidate is voted in.

While no candidate reached the 75% threshold required for enshrinement on the two most recent Era Committee ballots, both elections saw several candidates collect 50% or more of the vote.  The 2014 Golden Era ballot had five candidates reach 50% with Dick Allen and Tony Oliva each coming just a single vote shy of election.  Three candidates from the 2015 Pre-Integration Era ballot attained 50% with Doc Adams leading the way--only two tallies short of Cooperstown.  One of the reasons why the Era Committee and the Veterans Committee before it have had so much trouble electing anyone from the Golden Era is because voters' support has been split among several strong candidates.  For the final few Veterans Committee elections, Ron Santo, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, and Tony Oliva consistently drew over 50%, with no one candidate's Hall of Fame case distinguishing itself enough among the others to reach 75%.  Only after Santo's passing did the electorate finally show a strong preference for one of these candidates as the former Chicago Cubs player gained entry to Cooperstown with a staggering 93.8% of the vote on the initial Golden Era ballot--just one mark shy of unanimous.  Unfortunately, Santo's long overdue election came in the first vote after his death.  Had the Veterans Committee held a run-off election in which only the highest drawing candidates were placed on a second ballot, it is likely Santo would have been voted in while he was still living.

Holding a run-off election would undoubtedly draw criticism from proponents of a smaller, more exclusive Hall of Fame.  This is not without precedent, the BBWAA has used run-off elections in the past when their electorate had trouble voting in candidates.  The run-off election process was first used in the late 1940s when the BBWAA faced a problem similar to the one affecting the Golden Era Committee in which their voters' support was split among several strong candidates, resulting in no one collecting 75% of the vote.  The initial run-off election was held in 1946 as the second part of a two-part election that took the twenty highest-finishing candidates from the BBWAA ballot and allowed voters to select up to five candidates.  Unlike the BBWAA ballot where any candidate who reached 75% was elected, only the top finishing candidate to garner 75% could be voted in from the run-off ballot.  However, the electorate was not made aware of the results from the BBWAA ballot which played a large role in no candidate being voted in from the run-off ballot.  Following the 1946 election, the Hall of Fame changed the rules so that future run-off elections were only held if no candidate was voted in and also made the electorate aware of the vote percentages from the BBWAA ballot.  The second run-off election was held in 1949 with Charlie Gehringer being voted in on an incredibly stacked ballot in which all twenty candidates were eventually elected to Cooperstown by the BBWAA or Veterans Committee.  The run-off ballot included several unquestioned Hall of Famers including Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Paul Waner, and Lefty Grove.  The BBWAA's inability to quickly vote in these solid candidates seemed to validate the use of the run-off election.  Nevertheless, run-off elections were abandoned before the next vote.

However, the run-off election was brought back in 1962 during a time in which the BBWAA only voted biennially and had once again struggled to vote in candidates.  This time around, the Hall of Fame slightly changed the rules, moving the thirty highest-finishing candidates onto the run-off ballot with voters allowed to select up to five candidates.  Run-off elections were held in both 1964 and 1967 after the BBWAA failed to vote in any candidates on their ballot during those years.  Luke Appling was voted into the Hall of Fame from the 1964 run-off ballot while Red Ruffing achieved Cooperstown immortality by way of the run-off election three years later.  Appling and Ruffing, like Gehringer, were both solid additions to the Hall of Fame, yet with the BBWAA going back to voting on a yearly basis, run-off elections were once again abandoned after the 1967 vote.

A run-off ballot would have likely got Allen or Oliva elected

Although the BBWAA has not held a run-off election in nearly five decades, the Era Committee should consider adopting this practice when no candidates are voted in on its ballot.  The Era Committee could use a format similar to the one used by the BBWAA and move the five highest-finishing candidates onto a run-off ballot with voters allowed to select two candidates, with only the top finishing candidate to reach 75% able to be elected.  Had the Era Committee used a run-off ballot for the most recent Golden Era vote, it is likely either Dick Allen or Tony Oliva would have been elected as they each missed the 75% threshold by a single tally.  Moreover, a run-off election may have also kept the Pre-Integration Era Committee from pitching a shutout on its most recent vote as three candidates garnered 50%.  By using a run-off ballot the Era Committee would be able to minimize the number of elections that result in no candidates being voted in and spare itself the embarrassment and criticism that comes along with those fruitless elections.


7.  Create more sub-committees and run multiple elections.

If the Hall of Fame were to improve the Era Committee process by holding separate elections for player and non-player candidates and focus on the Golden and Expansion Eras which feature the greatest amount of living nominees, it would need to create more sub-committees and run multiple elections.  Moving non-player candidates onto their own ballot would necessitate adding between one and three new sub-committees, depending on if one were created for each of the three eras.  However, since non-player candidates are generally much older than player candidates, the only one of the eras which has enough living candidates to merit holding regular elections is the Expansion Era.  As virtually all possible player nominees from the Pre-Integration Era and non-players from both the Pre-Integration and Golden Eras are deceased, it makes sense to only hold semi-regular elections for those candidates.

Two unique time periods that deserve to be evaluated on special ballots are the Negro/pre-Negro Leagues and the Nineteenth Century.  Candidates from the Negro Leagues and the Nineteenth Century are difficult to compare to those from any other time period because their careers took place during pioneering eras in which schedules were shorter and record keeping was less accurate.  The Hall of Fame has drawn criticism for not including Negro League candidates on any of the Era Committee ballots while candidates from the Nineteenth Century are currently considered by the Pre-Integration Era Committee.  Buck O'Neil has remained a popular Hall of Fame candidate since being controversially overlooked by the Committee on African-American Baseball in 2006, which was the last time Negro League candidates were included in a Hall of Fame vote.  The Pre-Integration Committee elected one Nineteenth Century candidate, Deacon White, from their 2012 ballot while three others--Doc Adams, Harry Stovey, and Bill Dahlen--drew the highest vote totals on the 2015 ballot.  From 1995 to 2001, the Hall of Fame held special elections for candidates from the Negro Leagues and the Nineteenth Century which allowed the Veterans Committee to vote in one candidate from each ballot.  During those special elections, the Veterans Committee voted in seven candidates from the Negro Leagues and five from the Nineteenth Century.  The Hall of Fame should create special sub-committees for candidates from the Negro/pre-Negro Leagues and Nineteenth Century with an electorate largely made up of historians such as John Thorn and Peter Morris who are familiar with those unique eras.

The Era Committee should also focus on holding regular, biennial elections for sub-committees in which the majority of candidates are still living.  This would include players from the Golden and Expansion Eras as well as non-players from the Expansion Era.  In addition, the Era Committee should only hold semi-regular elections on a once per decade basis for sub-committees in which candidates are deceased.  This would cover players from the Pre-Integration Era and non-players from the Pre-Integration and Golden Era as well as special committees for the Negro/pre-Negro Leagues and the Nineteenth Century.  At the bottom of this article is an example of how creating more sub-committees and running multiple elections would look in practice as well as potential candidates for each.

The Hall of Fame is often slow moving when it comes to changes and has shown in the past that it does not necessarily make changes based on public opinion.  For example, the Hall of Fame denied a request from the BBWAA to change the maximum number of candidates a voter could select per ballot from 10 to 12.  Instead, the Hall of Fame reduced the maximum number of years a candidate was eligible to spend on the BBWAA ballot from 15 to 10 and also eliminated members of the electorate who have not actively covered the game in more than 10 years.  However, the Hall of Fame's Board of Directors often convenes in the late summer and in the past has made changes to their voting process at those meetings.  In fact, the Board of Directors altered the Veterans Committee format in both August 2001 and July 2007, before completely overhauling the voting body and adopting the Era Committee in July 2010.  And, with mixed results in two full voting cycles under the Era Committee, the Hall of Fame may be ready to once again modify the process.

----by John Tuberty

Below is an example of how the creation of more sub-committees would look with the Expansion Era Players, Golden Era Players, and Expansion Era Non-Players Committees meeting biennially and the Pre-Integration Players, Pre-Integration Non-Players, Golden Era Non-Players, 19th Century, and Negro/pre-Negro Leagues Committees convening on a semi-regular basis once every ten years:

2016--Expansion Era Players Ballot & Expansion Era Non-Players Ballot
2017--Golden Era Players Ballot & Negro/pre-Negro Leagues Ballot
2018--Expansion Era Players Ballot & Expansion Era Non-Players Ballot
2019--Golden Era Players Ballot & Nineteenth Century Ballot
2020--Expansion Era Players Ballot & Expansion Era Non-Players Ballot
2021--Golden Era Players Ballot & Pre-Integration Era Players Ballot
2022--Expansion Era Players Ballot & Expansion Era Non-Players Ballot
2023--Golden Era Players Ballot & Golden Era Non-Players Ballot
2024--Expansion Era Players Ballot & Expansion Era Non-Players Ballot
2025--Golden Era Players Ballot & Pre-Integration Era Non-Players Ballot


Possible candidates for each sub-committee with (M) standing for managerial candidate, (E) executive candidate, (C) coach candidate, and (U) umpire candidate with all others being player candidates:

Expansion Era Players:  Tommy John, Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Dave Parker, Dan Quisenberry, Al Oliver, Rusty Staub, Vida Blue, Ron Guidry, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez, Buddy Bell, Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans, Sal Bando, Reggie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela, Will Clark, Dave Stieb, Willie Randolph, Dennis Martinez, George Foster, Tom Henke, Thurman Munson, Jeff Reardon, Albert Belle, Dwight Gooden, Bob Welch, Fred Lynn, Rick Reuschel, Lance Parrish, Orel Hershiser

Golden Era Players:  Dick Allen, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Minnie Miñoso, Gil Hodges, Maury Wills, Ken Boyer, Luis Tiant, Billy Pierce, Allie Reynolds, Bert Campaneris, Bobby Bonds, Mickey Lolich, Curt Flood, Vada Pinson, Frank Howard, Willie Davis, Harvey Kuenn, Norm Cash, Roger Maris, Rocky Colavito, Don Newcombe, Elston Howard, Milt Pappas, Jim Wynn, Boog Powell, Roy Face, Bill Freehan, Lee May, Lew Burdette, Al Dark, Ted Kluszewski, Dick Groat, Willie Horton

Pre-Integration Era Players:  Bill Dahlen, Wes Ferrell, Bucky Walters, Marty Marion, Frank McCormick, Bob Johnson, Stan Hack, Sherry Magee, Lefty O'Doul, Cecil Travis, Henie Groh, Mickey Vernon, Doc Cramer, Riggs Stephenson, Babe Herman, Vern Stephens, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Ken Williams, Smokey Joe Wood, Gavvy Cravath, Mel Harder, Wally Schang, Wilbur Cooper, Jack Quinn, Phil Cavarretta, Jimmy Sheckard, Dom DiMaggio

Expansion Era Non-Players:  Marvin Miller (E), George Steinbrenner (E), Billy Martin (M), Jim Leyland (M), Bud Selig (E), Davey Johnson (M), Lou Piniella (M), John Schuerholz (E), Leo Mazzone (C), Dave Duncan (C), Ed Montague (U), Harry Dalton (E), Ewing Kauffman (E), Tom Kelly (M), Bill White (E), Frank Cashen (E), Chuck Tanner (M), Charles Bronfman (E), Roger Craig (M), Paul Owens (E), Steve Palmero (U), Mel Stottlemyre (C), Jack McKeon (M), Cedric Tallis (E), Lee Weyer (U), Ray Miller (C), John McSherry (U), Ron Perranoski (C), Don Zimmer (M)

Golden Era Non-Players:  Bob Howsam (E), Charlie Finley (E), Buzzie Bavasi (E), Johnny Sain (C), Danny Murtaugh (M), Gene Autry (E), John Fetzer (E), Ralph Houk (M), Gene Mauch (M), Gussie Busch (E), George Bamberger (C), Gabe Paul (E), Bill Rigney (M), John McHale (E), Joe L. Brown (E), Jim Campbell (E), Chub Feeney (E), Chuck Dressen (M), Frank Lane (E), Birdie Tebbetts (M), Bing Devine (E), Joan Payson (E), Fred Hutchinson (M)

Pre-Integration Era Non-Players:  Sam Breadon (E), Garry Herrmann (E), Phil Wrigley (E), Cy Rigler (U), Charlie Grimm (M), Charles Somers (E), Steve O'Neill (M), Bill Summers (U), Ben Shibe (E), Paul Richards (M), Babe Pinelli (U), Bob Quinn (E), John Heydler (E), Bill Dinneen (U), Charles Somers (E), Beans Reardon (U), George Stallings (M)

Negro/pre-Negro Leagues:  Buck O'Neil, John Donaldson, Bud Fowler, Spottswood Poles, Quincy Trouppe, John Beckwith, Candy Jim Taylor, Home Run Johnson, Sammy T. Hughes, Newt Allen, Dick Redding, Alejandro Olms, Chet Brewer, Dick Lundy, William Bell, Fats Jenkins, C.I. Taylor (M), Rap Dixon, Oliver Marcelle, George Scales, Bill Byrd, Dobie Moore, Red Parnell, Wabishaw Wiley, Chino Smith, Pancho Coimbre, Moses Fleet Walker, George Stovey

Nineteenth Century:  Harry Stovey, Doc Adams, Chris von der Ahe (E), Tony Mullane, Al Reach (E), Pete Browning, Joe Start, Ross Barnes, Jack Glasscock, Paul Hines, Bob Caruthers, Hardy Richardson, George Gore, Jim Mutrie (M), Lave Cross, Lip Pike, Jim Creighton, Dummy Hoy, George Van Haltren, Jimmy Ryan, Bobby Mathews, Charlie Bennett, Mike Tiernan, Dickey Pearce, Cal McVey, Jim McCormick, Cupid Childs, Tommy Bond


Sources:  Baseball Reference, SABR, Baseball Hall of Fame, Wikipedia, Doug Pappas' Roadside Photos, San Francisco Chronicle, Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, Seamheads, PSA Cards

Photo credit:  1974 Topps Jim Kaat, 1979 Topps Burger King Restaurant Tommy John, 1955 Topps Gil Hodges, 1999 Fleer Sports Illustrated Greats of the Game Buck O'Neil, 1966 Topps Dick Allen, 1966 Topps Tony Oliva

Other articles by Tubbs Baseball Blog:
Holding Separate Elections For Player and Non-Player Candidates Would Greatly Improve the Hall of Fame's Era Ballot Vote Process

Dwight Evans' Strong Sabermetric Statistics Underscore His Overlooked Hall of Fame Case

Bobby Grich Was The Victim of Some Bad Baseball Cards and Some Even Worse Hall of Fame Voting